****0000004861**** AXNT20 KNHC 011705 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Feb 1 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Pulsing gale force winds are expected each night and early morning offshore of Colombia through at least the middle of next week as a tight pressure gradient persists between ridging in the central Atlantic and low pressure over northwestern Colombia. Very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft are anticipated with these winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and continues to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring south of 05N between 40W and 50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S to 06N between 34W and 50W. Recent scatterometer data indicates strong to near-gale force trades north of the ITCZ, from 02N to 05N between 42W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Charlotte Harbor to 25N85W in the SE Gulf of Mexico, where a stalled frontal boundary then extends to 1015 mb low pressure in the SE Bay of Campeche. Strong to near- gale force NW winds, with 7-11 ft seas, prevail in the SW Bay of Campeche offshore of Veracruz, Mexico. Elsewhere along the frontal boundaries, winds are moderate to locally fresh. Seas are 4-7 ft across the Gulf waters. For the forecast, the remaining segment of cold front will stall and gradually dissipate along with the stationary front this weekend. Strong to near- gale force winds and very rough seas offshore of Veracruz will decrease through the day. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the Gulf this afternoon through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section regarding a Gale Warning over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. A robust subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic continues to impose across the Caribbean Sea. Outside of the GALE WARNING area, seas exceed 8 ft across the central and SW Caribbean with fresh to strong trades. 4-7 ft seas and moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the eastern and NW Caribbean. Winds and seas may be locally higher in east-facing Atlantic Passages between the islands of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse to gale force winds each night and early morning offshore of Colombia as a tight pressure gradient persists between ridging in the central Atlantic and low pressure over northwestern Colombia. Rough to occasionally very rough seas of are anticipated with these winds. Fresh trades will prevail across the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week. Pulsing strong winds are expected in the central Caribbean, as well as through the Windward Passage and downwind of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, residual E swell will merge with N swell, leading to locally rough seas near the Windward and Leeward Islands as well as the Atlantic passages into the Caribbean through next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N77W to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Moderate NW winds follow the front. A decaying stationary front is along 28N in the central Atlantic. Elsewhere, the tropical and subtropical Atlantic continue to be dominated by strong 1034 mb high pressure centered SE of the Azores. Fresh to strong trades prevail south of 26N across waters east of 60W, as detected by satellite scatterometer this morning. Seas are mainly 8-12 ft in these waters, except near the Cabo Verde Islands where seas are 12-13 ft. West of 60W, trades are moderate or weaker with 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast, the cold front in the western Atlantic will progress eastward before stalling and dissipating later this weekend. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E winds and rough seas will prevail south of 22N through the middle of next week. North of 22N, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected for Sun through early next week. $$ Mahoney