****0000007433****
AXNT20 KNHC 031743

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Mon Feb 03 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1730 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the area will

continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-

central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale-force each night 

offshore of Colombia through the remainder of the week. Peak seas

with these winds are expected to be at, or near 12 ft.



Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at website 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further 

details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 

Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to near 

03N27W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to the Equator at 30W

and continues to 00N40W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to 

isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ

between 28W and 35W. Scattered moderate convection is within

60 nm north of the ITCZ between 35W and 38W, and within 60 nm 

south of the ITCZ between 38W and 45W. Similar activity is 

north of the ITCZ from 01N to 03N between 43W and 50W.



GULF OF MEXICO...



High pressure of 1022 mb is centered just south of the western 

Florida Panhandle. Associated broad ridging extends southwestward 

from the high to over the central Gulf. It remains as the main 

feature that controls the wind regime over the basin. The related 

gradient is allowing for generally gentle to moderate east winds 

to be south of 25N and E of 94W. Gentle to moderate southeast to

south winds are over the western part of the Gulf N of 23N 

and west of 93W. Light to gentle east to southeast winds are 

elsewhere over the basin, except for light and variable winds in 

the SW Gulf near a trough that extends from 23N96W southeastward 

to inland southeastern Mexico and to the central section of 

Guatemala. Seas are in the range of 1 to 3 ft, except for slightly

higher seas of 2 to 4 ft in the southeastern Gulf, in the central 

Bay of Campeche and in the central Gulf section from 22N to 26N 

between 87W and 91W. 



Isolated showers are possible near the coast of Mexico from 

20N to 24N.



Visible satellite imagery shows patches of fog, some dense, over 

sections of the Gulf coastal plains. The synoptic set-up is 

favorable for the formation of sea fog to materialize during 

the overnight hours for the next few days.



For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico 

this week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight 

to moderate seas across the basin. Moderate to fresh winds are 

forecast at night north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the Bay of

Campeche as a surface trough develops in the Peninsula and moves 

westward towards Tampico and Veracruz diurnally. 



CARIBBEAN SEA...



Please read the Special Features section for information on

expected gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia.



Aside from the occurrence of gale-force winds off northwestern

Colombia, the gradient between strong high pressure north of the 

area and relatively lower pressure present in the southwestern 

Caribbean and in Colombia continues to allow for fresh to strong 

trade winds to exist in the eastern, north-central and in the 

southwestern Caribbean Sea, including the Windward Passage. These 

winds sustain moderate to rough seas in these waters. Moderate to 

fresh northeast to east winds along with seas of mostly 4 to 6 ft 

are over the northwestern Caribbean. Lighter trades of gentle to 

moderate speeds are south of 18N and west of 86W, including the 

Gulf of Honduras. Seas with these winds are 2 to 4 ft. 



Scattered to locally broken low clouds moving westward along with

possible isolated showers are noted west of 80W, also from 13N 

to 18N between 72W and 80W and from 12N to 15N between 63W and

72W. Similar clouds moving westward with possible isolated showers

and seen just west of the Leeward Islands within about 60 nm of 

16.5N62.5W. 



For the forecast, northeast to east trade winds will pulse to 

gale force each night with rough seas offshore of Colombia this 

week, supported by a tight pressure gradient between low pressure 

over northwestern Colombia and the Bermuda High. Expect moderate 

to fresh trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the 

eastern, central and southwestern Caribbean through the week.

Northeast to east trade winds will pulse to strong in the central

Caribbean, through the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela

and downwind of Hispaniola and Cuba. Otherwise, east long-period

swell will support locally rough seas near the Windward and 

Leeward Islands as well as the Atlantic passages into the 

Caribbean before diminishing beginning Tue night. The east

long-period swell will resume and support rough seas across the 

Leeward Islands offshore zones Thu into at least Fri night.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



High pressure of 1025 mb is analyzed north of the area near

33N68W, with a ridge extending southwestward to the central 

Bahamas. A trough extends from 31N78W southwestward to South

Florida. Another trough, remnants of a former stationary front, 

extends from near 30N61W to 28N67W while another trough extends 

from 31N54W to 25N66W. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are 

within 180 nm west of the trough that extends from near 30N61W 

to 28N67W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Farther east, 

high pressure of 1029 mb is near 30N33W and high pressure of 1030 

mb is analyzed just north of the area near 32N25W. The pressure 

gradient between the aforementioned high pressure areas and 

relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is supporting fresh 

to strong northeast to east trade winds south of about 27N east of

52W, and south of 24N between 52W and 80W, including the Windward

Passage as noted in recent scatterometer satellite data passes 

over those waters. Seas with these winds are 10 to 13 ft south 

24N east of 45W, and 8 to 11 ft elsewhere south of 27N east of 

52W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft south of 24N between 52W and the 

southeastern Bahamas. Elsewhere west of 55W, light to gentle winds

and moderate seas prevail.



Satellite imagery shows patches of sea fog along the coast 

of northeastern Florida, and offshore the same coast for about 

60 nm.



For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the 

region will promote generally moderate or weaker winds across the 

offshore waters for the next several days, with the exception

of fresh northeast winds across the approach to the Windward 

Passage. Otherwise, rough seas resulting in long-period east 

swell should develop across the offshore waters east of 70W and 

south of 24N late Thu through at least Fri night.



$$

Aguirre