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AXNT20 KNHC 051059

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Wed Feb 5 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1050 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the area will

continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-

central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale-force each night 

offshore of Colombia through the remainder of the week. Peak seas

with these winds are expected to be at or near 12 ft.



Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at website 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further 

details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N10W and continues 

southwestward to 04N15W. The ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 01N25W to

01S44W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06S to 04N 

between 20W and 31W. 



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A 1023 mb high pressure is centered south of Pensacola, Florida

near 29N86W. The ridge associated with this area of high pressure  

is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas

basin-wide. 



For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through 

the forecast period, supporting gentle to moderate winds and 

slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are 

forecast at night north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the Bay of

Campeche as a surface trough develops over the Peninsula and 

moves westward towards Tampico and Veracruz diurnally.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



See the Special Feature Section for details on an ongoing Gale

Warning off the coast of Colombia. 



A broad subtropical ridge north of the area is supporting fresh

to strong trade winds across the central and southwest Caribbean,

the lee of Cuba and Hispaniola, and the Windward Passage. 

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail elsewhere along with

moderate seas. 



For the forecast, gale force winds will pulse each night over the

SW Caribbean through Sun night. Fresh to strong NE to E winds 

will also continue through the weekend in the central and 

southwest Caribbean, through the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of 

Venezuela, and downwind of Hispaniola and Cuba. Otherwise, large E

swell will develop and affect the Leeward Islands offshore zones 

Thu into the weekend. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A ridge is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and

moderate seas across the western subtropical waters, except in the

approach to the Windward Passage where winds are fresh to strong.

Over the central subtropical waters, a break in the ridge due to

an approaching cold front N of the area is leading to light to

gentle variable winds. Surface ridging also dominates the eastern

subtropical waters where winds are gentle to moderate, except for

fresh to strong NE winds E of 20N. Seas in the eastern subtropical

and tropical Atlantic are rough to 10 ft.  



For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will support 

generally moderate or weaker winds across the offshore waters 

through tonight. A tighter pressure gradient will lead to fresh NE

to E winds S of 25N and E of 70W Thu through Sun night. Fresh to 

strong NE winds will continue across the approach to the Windward 

Passage through the weekend. Otherwise, rough seas in E swell 

should develop across the offshore waters east of 70W and south of

24N late Thu through the weekend. 



$$

Ramos