****0000005683****
AXNT20 KNHC 051815

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Wed Feb 5 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1750 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...



A strong surface ridge that is to the north of the area will 

continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the south

central Caribbean Sea. The winds will pulse to gale-force each 

night offshore of Colombia through the remainder of the week. 

Expect rough seas, to 12 feet. 



Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is 

issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.



Mostly fresh NE winds, and moderate seas, are in the remainder of

the Caribbean Sea. Some exceptions are for slight seas in the

coastal waters from the central coastal areas of Nicaragua to

Belize. 



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia

near 06N10W, to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W, to the

Equator along 27W/28W, to 02S33W and 02S40W. Precipitation:

isolated moderate to locally strong is from 12N16W 10N22W 04N30W

05N50W southward. 



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A surface trough is along 93W/94W, in the SW corner of the Gulf, 

from 22N southward, to the northern parts of the Isthmus of 

Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. This trough is a diurnal surface 

trough, with no apparent deep convective precipitation in the 

satellite imagery.



A 1023 mb high pressure center is close to 29N85W, off the coast

of the Florida Big Bend. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow 

covers the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico, away from the SW Gulf 

surface trough.



Moderate to some fresh NE winds are from 25N southward from 90W

eastward. Moderate or slower anticyclonic winds, and slight seas,

cover the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.



Fresh NE to E winds will occur each afternoon and evening 

offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and through the Florida Straits 

as a surface trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula daily and 

moves westward towards Tampico and Veracruz. Otherwise, high 

pressure over the remainder of the basin will support gentle to 

moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through this weekend.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a

Gale-Force Wind Warning that is covering the coastal waters of

Colombia/the south central sections of the Caribbean Sea. The 

warning period starts tonight. It stops on Thursday morning, and 

it starts again from Thursday night until Friday morning.



Mostly fresh NE winds, and moderate seas, are in the remainder of

the Caribbean Sea. Some exceptions are for slight seas in the

coastal waters from the central coastal areas of Nicaragua to

Belize. 



The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 

at 05/1200 UTC, are: 0.12 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands; 

0.03 in Curacao; and 0.01 in Montego Bay in Jamaica. This 

information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation

Tables/MIATPTPAN.



Winds will pulse to gale force each night and early morning 

offshore of Colombia as a strong pressure gradient prevails 

between high pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure 

over northwestern Colombia. Locally very rough seas will be 

possible near and to the west of the strongest winds. Fresh E to 

NE trade winds and rough seas are expected across the southwestern

and central Caribbean through this weekend, with winds pulsing to

strong speeds through the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of 

Venezuela, downwind of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba. Moderate

to locally fresh NE winds will occur across the remainder of the 

basin. E swell will lead to rough seas near the Windward and 

Leeward Islands and their passages into the eastern Caribbean Sea 

late tonight through this weekend. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A surface trough is along 22N51W 17N53W 11N54W. No significant 

deep convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite 

imagery.



A surface ridge is along 32N31W 30N39W 27N54W, to a 1023 mb high

pressure center that is close to 28N78W. 



Mostly strong to some fresh NE winds, and rough seas, are from 

01N to 30N from 51W eastward. Fresh NE winds are from 22N 

southward between 51W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are in 

the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Rough seas are from 20N 

northward from 50W eastward. Moderate seas are from 20N northward

from 50W westward. Moderate to rough seas are in the remainder of

the Atlantic Ocean.



Moderate to fresh E trade winds will prevail south of 25N through

this weekend. An increasing pressure gradient between building 

high pressure in the western Atlantic and low pressure over 

northwestern Colombia will support moderate to fresh NE winds 

north of 25N and east of 70W late tonight into Fri morning. Winds 

will diminish in this region thereafter, with gentle to moderate 

winds continuing into the weekend. E swell will lead to rough seas

near and east of the Windward and Leeward Islands late tonight 

through this weekend. 



$$

mt/ea