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AXNT20 KNHC 090604

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Sun Feb 9 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0500 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Caribbean Gale Warning: 

A tight pressure gradient between a high pressure southwest of

Bermuda and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will

continue to support strong to near-gale winds at the south-central

basin through midweek next week. These winds will peak at gale-

force during the nighttime and early morning hours offshore of

Barranquilla, Colombia. Seas are expected to peak at 11 to 13 ft

under the strongest winds.



Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 

issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of 

Sierra Leone near Freetown, then runs southwestward to 03N20W. 

An ITCZ continues from 03N20W across 00N30W to near Luis Correia, 

Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the ITCZ from 

01S to 02N between 23W and 41W. Widely scattered moderate 

convection is present south of the monsoon trough from 04N to 05N

between 11W and 15W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high near the Florida Big

Bend area to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate with locally fresh E

to SSE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the southeastern and

northwestern Gulf, and eastern Bay of Campeche, including the 

Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 1 to 3 ft

seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.



For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds are expected each afternoon

and evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula through late next 

week. Otherwise, the surface ridge will support gentle to moderate

winds and slight to moderate seas through the middle of next week.

A cold front is likely to move off the Texas coast late next week,

causing increasing winds and seas at the northwestern Gulf.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Please read the Special Feature Section about a Gale Warning.



The high pressure mentioned in the Special Features section

sustains trade winds across the entire basin. Outside the Gale

Warning area, Strong to near-gale ENE winds and seas of 8 to 11 

ft at the south-central basin. Fresh to strong ENE winds and 6 to

9 ft seas are evident at the north-central and at the Windward

and Mona Passages. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and 3 to 5

ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.



For the forecast, aside from the Colombia, fresh NE to E trade 

winds and rough seas are expected across the remainder 

southwestern and central basin through next week, with winds 

pulsing to strong speeds through the Windward Passage, in the 

Gulf of Venezuela, and downwind of Hispaniola. Moderate to locally

fresh NE winds will prevail across the remainder of the basin. 

East swell will bring rough seas near the Windward and Leeward 

Islands and their passages into the eastern Caribbean Sea through 

late next week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A dissipating cold front extends southwestward from the

northeastern Atlantic across 31N25W to 26N39W. Patchy rain are

note up to 80 nm along either side of this boundary. Convergent

trade winds are producing scattered moderate convection from the

Brazilian coast to 03N between 43W and 50W. Refer to the Monsoon

Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic

Basin. 



An elongated 1025 mb high southwest of Bermuda is supporting

gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate

swell north of 27N between 50W and the Georgia/Florida coast. For

the Atlantic from 03N to 27N west of 35W, moderate to fresh ENE 

winds along with 6 to 9 ft seas exist. Gentle to moderate SE winds

and 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the

remainder of the Atlantic Basin.



For the forecast W of 55W, mainly fresh trade winds will prevail 

south of 25N through late next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate

winds will prevail through the middle of next week. East swell 

will bring rough seas northeast of the Leeward Islands and Puerto

Rico through late next week. 



$$



Chan