****0000007767**** AXNT20 KNHC 090611 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Jan 9 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... A cold front passes through 31N46W, to 29N50W 23N60W, to the northern coast of the Dominican Republic at 60W. A surface trough continues to the Windward Passage. Gale-force W winds, and rough to very rough seas, are forecast to start on Thursday afternoon, from 28N northward between 55W and 69W. Expect for Thursday afternoon: strong to near gale-force SW to W winds, and rough to very rough seas, elsewhere from 24N northward between 39W and 77W. Expect also: winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in NW swell, in the remainder of the area that is from 20N northward between 35W and 80W, including in the Atlantic Ocean exposures. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... Gale-force southerly winds, and rough seas, are forecast to start on Thursday night, from 27N to 29N between 94W and 95W. Expect also: strong to near gale-force SE to S winds, and rough seas, elsewhere from 20N to 29N between 90W and 98W, including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz in Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT... Large long-period NW swell, with wave periods that range from 14 seconds to 16 seconds, continues to propagate through the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean. Rough to very rough seas, in general, are from 20N northward from 60W eastward. Rough seas cover the Atlantic Ocean from 03N northward, in general. Another set of reinforcing swell will move into the area on Thursday and Thursday night. The sea heights of 12 feet or higher will cover the areas that are from 25N northward from 76W eastward by Thursday evening...possibly as high as 20 feet close to 31N57W. Sea heights of 12 feet or higher are forecast to continue spreading southeastward through at least the upcoming weekend. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details about each situation. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of NW Liberia, to 05N17W and 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W, to the Equator along 26W, to 01S30W and 01S35W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate isolated strong is from 06N southward from 30W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a Gale-force Wind Warning that is forecast to start on Thursday night, for most of the northern Gulf of Mexico waters. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough extends from the coastal waters of the Deep South of Texas to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 90W westward. Expect strong to near gale-force NW winds, and rough to nearly very- rough seas, are on the western side of the surface trough. Fresh to strong NE to E winds. and moderate seas, are within 120 nm to the east of the surface trough. Moderate seas, and moderate to fresh N to NE winds, are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong N to NW winds will persist across the western edge of the Gulf until Thu morning. Elsewhere in the Gulf, high pressure will continue to produce moderate to fresh N to NE winds through Thu. A frontal low pressure is expected to move off southeastern Texas into the northwestern Gulf late Thu afternoon or Thu evening, and then intensify through Fri. This system is expected to bring strong to gale-force winds for the northwestern Gulf Thu night through Fri, and fresh to strong winds across the north-central and northeastern Gulf Fri through Sat. Seas in these areas are anticipated to be rough to very rough. In addition, the cold front associated with this low will produce strong to near- gale force NW to N winds and very rough seas over the west-central and southwestern Gulf Fri through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front reaches the northern coast of the Dominican Republic at 60W. A surface trough continues to the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong N to NE winds, and moderate seas, are from 12N to 16N from 80W westward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. A few exceptions are for slight seas: in the coastal waters of Venezuela along 70W; and in the coastal waters of SE Cuba on the Caribbean Sea side. Fresh to strong northerly winds are from 19N southward from 84W westward; and from 14N southward between 72W and 76W. Moderate to fresh winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. A surface to low-level trough is along 66W/67W, from 19N southward, including passing through parts of Puerto Rico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are between 63W and 71W. The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, through parts of northern Panama, and beyond southern Costa Rica, into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate isolated strong is from 15N southward from 77W westward. A surface ridge extending southward from the eastern Gulf of Mexico should sustain moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas across the western Caribbean through early Fri. Afterward, this high is going to build eastward into the western Atlantic through early next week, causing these winds and seas to also shift eastward into the central Caribbean. In addition, winds at the south-central basin will pulse to strong at night through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Gale-force Wind Warning, and the Significant Swell Event. Strong and faster W winds are from 30N northward between the 31N46W cold front and 76W. Strong and faster SW winds are from 30N northward between 33W and the 31N46W cold front. Rough to very rough seas, in general, are from 20N northward from 60W eastward. Rough seas cover the Atlantic Ocean from 03N northward, in general. A surface trough is along 10N14W 18N16W 25N17W. Fresh NE winds are within 350 nm to 500 nm on either side of 21N18W 20N21W 13N32W 11N41W 09N50W. Fresh W to SW winds are from 29N80W 27N62W 24N49W 28N37W 31N28W northward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from 31N47W to 20N70W. Fresh to strong SW winds will persist ahead of the front mainly north of 27N through tonight. Meanwhile, large long-period NW swell will sustain very rough to high seas across the waters north of 26N through Thu morning. A reinforcing cold front is expected to bring strong to gale-force W to NW winds north of 27N and east of 70W Thu afternoon through Sat. This will also prolong very rough to high seas in the central and eastern Atlantic through the weekend. In the long term, a third frontal system this weekend could bring yet another round of increasing winds and seas east of Florida and northeast of the Bahamas. $$ mt/era