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AXNT20 KNHC 091008

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Thu Jan 9 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1000 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N47W TO 20N70W.  

The front is forecast to weaken and eventually stall from near 

31N43W to near the Mona Passage this afternoon, while a 

reinforcing front dives south of 31N, extending from near Bermuda 

to the central Bahamas then. Gale-force winds will accompany this

new front, across the waters north of 28N and east of 70W on 

either side of the front. The reinforcing front will quickly reach

from 31N45W to near Puerto Rico by Fri afternoon with gales 

continuing on either side, with the front and associated gales 

finally weakening/diminishing by Sat afternoon as it extends from 

31N35W to near the NE Caribbean Sea. Looking ahead, yet another 

front may move off the SE United States late Fri night/early Sat 

with another round of gale-force winds possible ahead of it. Those

gale winds are forecast to push eastward with the front through 

the weekend, mainly north of 29N.



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A frontal low pressure is expected

to move off southeastern Texas into the northwestern Gulf this

afternoon or evening, and then intensify through Fri. This system

is expected to bring strong to gale-force winds for the 

northwestern Gulf tonight through Fri, and fresh to strong winds 

across the north-central and northeastern Gulf Fri through Sat. 

Seas in these areas are anticipated to be rough to very rough. In 

addition, the cold front associated with this low will produce 

strong to near-gale force NW to N winds and very rough seas over 

the west-central and southwestern Gulf Fri through Sat.



Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large long-period northwest swell

with wave periods of 14 to 16 seconds continues to propagate 

across the central subtropical Atlantic. NW swell supports seas 

of 12 to 17 ft N of 26N between 34W and 68W. These conditions will

continue to propagate across the Atlantic waters, then a new set

of NW swell will quickly move later today, with seas of 12 ft or 

greater north of 25N and east of 76W by this evening, up to 20 ft

near 31N57W. By Fri evening, seas of 12 ft or greater will cover 

the majority of the waters north of 21N between 33W and 71W, with 

20 to 23 ft seas north of 39N between 48W and 63W by then. Seas of

12 ft or greater are forecast to continue spreading southeastward

through at least the upcoming weekend.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on

the areas above.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough extends from 06N11W to 04N19W. The ITCZ 

continues from that point to 01S35W. Scattered moderate 

convection is from 00N-06N and E of 33W.



GULF OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on

a Gale Warning that is in place for the northern Gulf Waters.



Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted over the far western 

sections of the Gulf due to a tight pressure gradient between 

strong high pressure ridging over eastern Mexico and troughing 

present in the southwestern Gulf. Seas with these winds are 8 to 

11 ft. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are present across the rest of

the Gulf as high pressure continues to build over the region. 

Seas with these winds are generally 3 to 6 ft.



For the forecast, A frontal low pressure is expected to move off 

southeastern Texas into the northwestern Gulf this afternoon or 

evening, and then intensify through Fri. This system is expected 

to bring strong to gale- force winds for the northwestern Gulf 

tonight through Fri, and fresh to strong winds across the north- 

central and northeastern Gulf Fri through Sat. Seas in these areas

are anticipated to be rough to very rough. The cold front 

associated with this low will move SE across the basin producing 

strong to near-gale force NW to N winds and very rough seas over 

the west-central and southwestern Gulf Fri through Sat.



CARIBBEAN SEA...



A surface ridge extending southward from the eastern Gulf of 

Mexico will sustain moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate 

seas across the western and central Caribbean. Strong winds are 

pulsing offshore NW Colombia due to locally tight pressure 

gradient, with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate 

trades are over the remainder of the basin, along with 3 to 5 ft 

seas. A surface to low-level trough is analyzed in the eastern 

Caribbean along 67W. Latest satellite imagery indicates broken to 

scattered to low clouds from 13N to 18N between 64W and 70W. 

Scattered showers with gusty winds are possible with these clouds.



For the forecast, the high pressure NW of the area will build 

eastward into the western Atlantic through early next week, 

causing these winds and seas to also shift eastward into the 

central Caribbean. In addition, winds at the south-central basin 

will pulse to strong at night through early next week. 



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the Special Features section above for information 

on the potential for several rounds of gale-force winds over the 

northerly waters through the next several days, and on an 

associated Significant Swell event impacting a large portion of 

the central and western waters.



The cold front discussed above from 31N47W to 20N70W, has fresh 

to strong winds on either side, mainly N of 28N. Seas of 8 ft or 

greater are north of 23N and east of 75W, with 4 to 7 ft seas 

south and west of there to the coast including the Bahamas. To the

east of the front, a ridge dominates the open waters stretching 

from near the Canary Islands southwestward to just north of Puerto

Rico. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are found right under 

the ridge, with mainly moderate NE-E winds to southeast and south 

of it. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft south of 23N and west of 54W, 

and 8 ft or greater across the remainder of the open waters.



For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds will 

persist ahead of the cold front north of 28N through today. Meanwhile,

large long-period NW swell will continues to spread across the 

area N of 26N. A reinforcing cold front is expected to bring 

strong to gale-force W to NW winds north of 27N and east of 70W 

this afternoon through Sat. This will also prolong very rough to 

high seas in the central and eastern Atlantic through the weekend.

In the long term, a third frontal system this weekend could bring

yet another round of increasing winds and seas east of Florida 

and northeast of the Bahamas. 



$$

ERA