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AXNT20 KNHC 091625

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Thu Jan 9 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1624 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N42W to 

northeast Hispaniola. This front will move little through Fri, 

ahead of a reinforcing front that will develop east of the 

Bahamas. Recent scatterometer data depicted gale-force winds north

of 29N between 69W and 75W. Winds to gale force and rough seas 

will follow the developing reinforcing front across the waters 

between northeast Florida and Bermuda today, and southeast of 

Bermuda tonight and Fri. The reinforcing front will quickly reach 

from 31N45W to near Puerto Rico by Fri afternoon with gales 

continuing on either side, with the front and associated gales 

finally weakening/diminishing by Sat as it extends from 31N35W to 

near the NE Caribbean Sea. Looking ahead, yet another front may 

move off the SE United States early Sat with another round of 

gale- force winds possible ahead of it. Those gale winds are 

forecast to push eastward with the front through the weekend, 

mainly north of 29N.



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A frontal low pressure is expected

to move off southeastern Texas into the northwestern Gulf this

afternoon or evening, and then intensify through Fri. This system

is expected to bring strong to gale-force winds for the 

northwestern Gulf tonight through Fri, and fresh to strong winds 

across the north-central and northeastern Gulf Fri through Sat. 

Seas in these areas are anticipated to be rough to very rough. In 

addition, the cold front associated with this low will produce 

strong to near-gale force NW to N winds and very rough seas over 

the west-central and southwestern Gulf Thu night through Sat.



Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large long-period northwest swell

with wave periods of 14 to 16 seconds continues to propagate 

across the central subtropical Atlantic. NW swell supports seas 

of 12 to 17 ft N of 26N between 33W and 65W. These conditions 

will continue to propagate across the Atlantic waters, then a new 

set of NW swell will quickly move later today, with seas of 12 ft 

or greater north of 25N and east of 75W by this evening, up to 21

ft near 30.5N64W. By Fri evening, seas of 12 ft or greater will 

cover the majority of the waters north of 22N between 32W and 

70W, with 20 to 23 ft seas north of 26N between 45W and 62W by 

then. Seas of 12 ft or greater are forecast to continue spreading 

southeastward through at least the upcoming weekend.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on

the areas above.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough extends from 11N16W southwestwards to 06N20W. 

The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S43W. Scattered moderate 

convection is depicted from 00N to 05N between 34W and 13W. 

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are also depicted from 00N to 

05N between 13W and the coast of Africa. 



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on

a Gale Warning that is in place for the northern Gulf Waters.



A trough is analyzed over the western Gulf reaching from off 

Brownsville, Texas to near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Fresh to locally

strong E to SE winds are noted between the trough and 94W due to 

a tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned trough and 

strong high pressure ridging over eastern Gulf. Seas with these 

winds are 8 to 9 ft. West of the trough NW moderate to fresh winds

are found with seas 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are 

present across the rest of the Gulf as high pressure continues to 

build over the region. Seas with these winds are generally 3 to 6 

ft.



For the forecast, winds and seas are building over the northwest 

Gulf this morning, east of aforementioned trough over the western

Gulf. Low pressure forming along this trough over the coast of 

Texas will lift northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley 

through Fri, dragging a cold front across the most of the Gulf 

through Sat. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow the 

front, reaching gale force off Veracruz, Mexico Fri. Winds and 

seas will diminish across the Gulf Sun, as high pressure follows 

the front across the northern Gulf, while the front stalls over 

the southeast and south- central Gulf. Looking ahead, a 

reinforcing cold front will move into the Gulf Mon, followed by 

strong winds and rough seas. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A surface ridge extending southward from the eastern Gulf of 

Mexico will sustain moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate 

seas across the western and central Caribbean. Strong winds are 

pulsing offshore NW Colombia due to locally tight pressure 

gradient, with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate 

trades are over the remainder of the basin, along with 3 to 5 ft 

seas. A surface to low-level trough is analyzed in the eastern 

Caribbean from 17N66W to 14N71W. No convection is depicted at this

time in association with this trough. 



For the forecast, a surface ridge extending southward from the 

eastern Gulf of Mexico will sustain moderate to fresh N to NE 

winds and moderate seas across the western Caribbean through early

Fri. The high pressure will build eastward into the western 

Atlantic through early next week, causing these winds and seas to 

also shift eastward into the central Caribbean. In addition, winds

at the south-central basin will pulse to strong at night through 

early next week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the Special Features section above for information 

on the potential for several rounds of gale-force winds over the 

northerly waters through the next several days, and on an 

associated Significant Swell event impacting a large portion of 

the central and western waters.



The cold front discussed above that extends from 31N42W to 

northeast of Hispaniola, has fresh to strong winds on either side,

mainly N of 27N. Seas of 8 ft or greater are north of 22N and 

east of 75W, with 6 to 8 ft seas south and west of there to the 

coast including the Bahamas. To the east of the front, a ridge 

dominates the open waters stretching from near the Canary Islands 

southwestward to near 18N51W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds 

are found right under the ridge, with mainly moderate NE-E winds 

to southeast and south of it. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft south of 

20N and west of 54W, and 8 ft or greater across the remainder of 

the open waters.



For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N42W 

to northeast Hispaniola will move little through Fri, ahead of a 

reinforcing front that will develop east of the Bahamas. Winds to 

gale force and rough seas will follow the developing reinforcing 

front across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda 

today, and southeast of Bermuda tonight and Fri. The fronts will 

merge late Fri and shift east of the area by early Sat. Farther 

west, expect SW gales and rough seas off northwest Florida late 

Fri night, ahead of another front that will move off the coast 

early Sat. This front will reach from Bermuda to Jupiter Inlet, 

Florida Sat night, and will exit east of the area through Mon. As 

with the earlier front, gale force winds and rough seas will 

follow this front across the waters between northeast Florida and 

Bermuda through Sun. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish 

as high pressure builds over the basin Sun into Mon.



$$

KRV