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AXNT20 KNHC 092325

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Fri Jan 10 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2200 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Gale Warnings: A developing cold front extends from

southeast of Bermuda near 31N64 to just north of the northern

Bahamas at 28N78W. Gale-force winds, up to 40 kt, are currently

north of 27N between 68W and 74W on either side of the front,

while fresh to strong winds are found elsewhere north of 25N

between 50W and 80W. Moderate to fresh winds are south of 25N and

west of 60W. Rough seas accompany the front as described in 

greater detail below. The front will quickly extend from near 

31N45W to near the Anegada Passage by Fri morning with gale-force 

winds continuing on either side, reaching from 31N41W to the NE 

Caribbean Fri evening, with the front and any remaining associated

gale-force winds shifting northeast and east of the area Sat 

afternoon. 



Another cold front will impact the SW N Atlantic waters,

approaching from the west Fri night. Southerly winds offshore

northern Florida will increase to gale-force late Fri night north

of 29N and ahead of the front. The front is forecast to reach from

near 31N70W to near the northern Bahamas Sat evening with gale-

force winds either side of the front north of 29N by then. By Sun

evening, the front will reach from near 31N47W to the Central

Bahamas with winds diminishing below gale-force. New and

associated large swells will reinforce swells generated by the

first front.



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: An 1012 mb frontal low has moved 

into the Texas coastal waters near 27.5N97W. An associated warm

front is south of Louisiana near 28.5N92W to the low, with a cold

front from the low to the NE coast of Mexico near 25N98.5W. Gale-

force winds will accompany the low in the SE quadrant through Fri.

Seas of 8 to 12 ft will accompany these winds. Meanwhile, the low

will drag a cold front across most of the Gulf through Sat. Fresh

to strong winds and rough seas will follow the front, reaching 

gale-force off Veracruz, Mexico Fri. Seas will build to 8 to 14 ft

with these gales. Winds will diminish below gale-force off 

Veracruz Sat.



Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large long-period northwest 

swell with wave periods of 14 to 16 seconds continues to propagate

across the central subtropical Atlantic. NW swell supports seas 

of 12 to 18 ft north of 26N between 30W and 77W. These conditions

will continue to propagate across the Atlantic waters, being

reinforced by a set of new cold fronts as discussed above. By Fri

evening, seas of 12 ft or greater will cover the waters north of

20N between 31W and 72W with peak seas of 20 to 24 ft north of 27N

between 46W and 63W then. Seas of 12 ft or greater are forecast 

to continue spreading southeastward through at least the upcoming 

weekend.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on

the areas above.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N17W to

05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to just off the coast of

Brazil near 01S43.5W. Earlier significant convection near the

monsoon trough and ITCZ has dissipated over the past several

hours.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on

a Gale Warning that is in place for both the northern Gulf 

Waters, and the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz, Mexico.



Otherwise, a trough is analyzed over the western Gulf of Mexico

from 25N96.5W to 19N94.5W. Light to gentle variable winds are west

of the trough. Fresh to strong SE winds are found north of 22N,

east of the trough and above mentioned front to near 92W. Moderate

to locally fresh NE to E winds are found elsewhere in the central

and eastern Gulf, except E to SE west of 90W. Seas are currently 6

to 9 ft and building west of 93W, and 3 to 5 ft east of 93W.



For the forecast, the gale-force low pressure discussed above will 

drag a cold front across the most of the Gulf through Sat. Fresh 

to strong winds and rough seas will follow the front, reaching 

gale-force off Veracruz, Mexico Fri. Winds and seas will diminish

across the Gulf Sun, as high pressure follows the front across 

the northern Gulf, while the front stalls over the southeast and 

south-central Gulf. Looking ahead, a reinforcing cold front will 

move into the Gulf Mon, followed by strong winds and rough seas. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A weakening stationary front is analyzed from the Atlantic coastal

waters of Puerto Rico northeastward in the Atlantic, while a

surface trough extends west of the front to across interior

Hispaniola to SE Cuba. Another surface trough is analyzed to the

south, from 17N66W to 14N73W with scattered showers found within

60-120 nm either side of this trough. Mainly moderate NE winds are

found across the waters west of the trough, except locally fresh

to strong offshore Nicaragua and near the NW coast of Colombia.

Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the SW Caribbean south of 16N and west of

76W, with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere west of the trough. Gentle to

locally moderate winds are found east of the trough along with

mainly 2 to 4 ft seas.



For the forecast, a frontal boundary will move into the far 

northeast Caribbean and stall through Sat, then dissipate. High 

pressure will build in the wake of the front across the western 

Atlantic into Sat. Large, long-period northerly swell will also 

accompany the front, impacting the Atlantic passages into the 

northeast Caribbean Sat, the Atlantic waters east off the Leeward 

Islands starting Sat night, and the waters east of the Windward 

Islands by early Sun before subsiding into Mon. The pattern will 

also support moderate to fresh trade winds over the eastern and 

south-central Caribbean, with stronger winds pulsing off Colombia

through early next week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the Special Features section above for information 

on the potential for several rounds of gale-force winds over the 

northerly waters through the next several days, and on an 

associated Significant Swell event impacting a large portion of 

the central and western waters.



Ahead of the developing, gale-force cold front discussed above, a

stationary front lingers from 31N44W to the Atlantic coastal

waters of Puerto Rico. Widely scattered showers are possible

within 180 nm northwest of the front, with isolated thunderstorms

north 27N there. Fresh to strong SW winds are occurring north of

22N within 240 nm ahead of the front. To the east of the

stationary front, 1027 mb high pressure is centered northeast of

the area near 24.5N11W through 27N35W to the NE Caribbean Sea.

Gentle to moderate winds are found under and south-southeast of

the ridge, along with seas of 7 to 11 ft in NW swell. Seas are 4

to 7 ft south of 25N and west of 55W.



For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will move 

little through Fri, ahead of the reinforcing, developing cold 

front. Winds to gale-force and rough to very rough seas follow 

the developing reinforcing front across the waters between 

northeast Florida and Bermuda, and these winds and seas will move 

southeast of Bermuda tonight and Fri. The fronts will merge late 

Fri and shift east of the area by early Sat. Farther west, expect 

SW gales and rough seas off northwest Florida late Fri night, 

ahead of another front that will move off the coast early Sat. 

This front will reach from Bermuda to Jupiter Inlet, Florida Sat 

night, and will exit east of the area through Mon. As with the 

earlier front, gale-force winds and rough seas will follow this 

front across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda 

through Sun. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish as high 

pressure builds over the basin Sun into Mon. 



$$

Lewitsky