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AXNT20 KNHC 100604

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Fri Jan 10 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0550 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...



A cold front passes through 31N61W, to 27N70W, to 26N60W at the

coast of Florida. A surface trough is about 180 nm to the SE and

to the S of the cold front. Expect these conditions for the next

24 hours or so: gale-force W winds, and very rough to high seas, 

from 27N northward between 53W and 65W. Strong to near gale-force 

W to NW winds, and very rough to high seas, are elsewhere from 28N

northward between 59W and 69W. Gale-force SW to W winds, and very

rough seas, are from 23N northward between 37W and 67W. Strong to

near gale-force NW winds, and very rough seas, are elsewhere from

26N northward between 60W and 77W. Winds of 20 knots or less, and

rough seas in NW swell, are in the remainder of the area that is 

from 07N northward between 35W and 77W. The 24-hour rainfall 

totals in inches, for the period that ended at 10/0000 UTC, are: 

0.24 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American 

Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.



...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...



A 1009 mb low pressure center is close to 29N96W. A cold front

extends from the low pressure center, to 26N96W and 24N98W in

Mexico. A warm front extends from the 1009 mb low pressure center

to 28N90W. A surface trough is along 24N96W 18N94W. Precipitation:

broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are

from 24N northward. Moderate seas are from 90W eastward. Expect

for the next 24 hours or so: gale-force SE to S winds, and rough

to nearly very rough seas, from 28N to 29N between 94W and 95W.

Strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas, will be elsewhere

from 22N to 30N between 90W and 97W. Moderate to fresh NE to E

winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Expect to

develop in 24 hours or so: gale-force NW to N winds, and rough 

seas, from 19N to 21N between 95W and 97W, including within 60 nm 

of the coast of Veracruz in Mexico. Strong to near gale-force NW 

to N winds, and rough to near very rough seas, are from 19N to 30N

between 85W and 98W. Strong to near gale-force S to SW winds, and

rough seas, will be from 27N to 30N between 83W and 87W. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT...



Large long-period 14 seconds to 16 seconds northwest swell 

continues to propagate through the central subtropical Atlantic

Ocean. NW swell has been supporting sea heights that have been

ranging from 12 feet to 18 feet from 26N northward between 30W 

and 77W. These conditions will continue to move through the 

Atlantic Ocean waters. New cold fronts will reinforce the

continuing wave height situation. Sea heights of 12 feet or 

higher by Friday evening will cover the waters that are from 27N 

northward between 31W and 72W. Peak sea heights will range from 20

feet to 24 feet from 27N northward between 46W and 63W by Friday 

evening. Sea heights of 12 feet or higher are forecast to continue

to spread southeastward through at least the upcoming weekend.



Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is 

issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details

about each situation. 



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of NW

Liberia, to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W, to 01N26W, 

to the Equator along 33W. 



GULF OF MEXICO...



Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about

a Gale-force Wind Warning that is close to the 1009 mb 29N96W low

pressure center. Expect for Friday night: gale-force NW to N

winds, and rough seas, are forecast from 19N to 21N between 95W

and 97W, including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz in

Mexico.



Low pressure over the NW Gulf will lift northeastward across the 

lower Mississippi Valley through Fri, dragging a cold front across

the most of the Gulf through Sat. Fresh to strong winds and rough

seas will follow the front, reaching gale force off Veracruz, 

Mexico Fri. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Sun, as 

the front stalls over the southeast Gulf. A reinforcing cold front

will move into the Gulf early next week, followed by strong winds

and rough seas. 



CARIBBEAN SEA...



A stationary front is along 17N/18N in Hispaniola. reaches the 

northern coast of the Dominican Republic at 60W. A surface trough 

continues to the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong N to NE winds, 

and moderate seas, are from 12N to 16N from 80W westward.



Moderate seas of 6 feet are from the eastern sections of Honduras

southward from 75W westward. Slight to moderate seas are in the 

remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Strong NE winds are from 13N 

southward between 74W and 78W. Strong NE winds are from 19N 

northward between SE Cuba and 81W. Fresh to moderate NE winds are 

elsewhere from 70W westward. Moderate or slower winds are from 70W

eastward. 



A surface to low level trough is along 68W/69W, from 18N 

southward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, 

and isolated moderate, are between 63W and 73W.



The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, through parts of

northern Panama, and beyond southern Costa Rica, into the Pacific

Ocean. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate

isolated strong is from 14N southward from 77W westward.



A frontal boundary will move into the far northeast Caribbean and

stall through Sat, then dissipate. High pressure will build in 

the wake of the front across the western Atlantic into Sat. Large,

long-period northerly swell will also accompany the front, 

impacting the Atlantic passages into the northeast Caribbean Sat, 

the Atlantic waters east off the Leeward Islands starting Sat 

night, and the waters east of the Windward Islands by early Sun 

before subsiding into Mon. The pattern will also support moderate 

to fresh trade winds over the eastern and south- central 

Caribbean, with stronger winds pulsing off Colombia through early 

next week. 



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about

the Gale-force Wind Warning, and the Significant Swell Event.

Strong and faster NW to W to SW winds are from 31N76W 24N73W

21N55W 24N46W 31N35W northward. fresh NE winds are within 500 nm

on either side of 30N13W 23N18W 20N22W 14N31W 10N33W 06N41W 

04N51W. Fresh N to NE winds are elsewhere from 74W westward.



A stationary front passes through 31N42W, to 27N50W 21N60W, to 

just to the north of Puerto Rico, to Haiti. Precipitation:

scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 28N northward

between 37W and 47W. 



A mostly stationary front extending from 25N55W to northeast 

Hispaniola will move little through Fri, ahead of a reinforcing 

front east of the Bahamas. Winds to gale force are both ahead and 

behind the reinforcing front N of 28N, with rough to very rough 

seas. These winds and seas will move southeast of Bermuda through 

Fri. The fronts will merge late Fri and shift east of the area by 

early Sat. Farther west, expect SW gales and rough seas off 

northwest Florida late Fri night, ahead of another cold front that

will move off the coast early Sat. This front will shift across 

the forecast waters and exit east of the area through Mon. As with

the earlier front, gale force winds and rough seas are possible 

over the northern waters in the vicinity of the front through Sun.

Winds and seas will diminish as high pressure builds over the 

basin Sun into Mon.



$$

mt/al