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AXNT20 KNHC 101702

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Fri Jan 10 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1702 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Gale Warnings: A dissipating cold front extends from

31N40W to the NE Carribbean. A reinforcing cold front extends 

from 31N48W to central Bahamas. Gale-force winds in association 

with these front are currently north of 27.5N between 38W and 62W.

Rough to very rough seas accompany the front as described in 

greater detail below. The fronts will merge today, and quickly 

shift eastward, with gale-force winds continuing through Sat. The 

front and any remaining associated gale-force winds will shift 

northeast and east of the area Sat afternoon. 



Another cold front will impact the SW N Atlantic waters,

approaching from the west tonight. Southerly winds offshore 

northern Florida will increase to gale-force late tonight north 

of 30N and ahead of the front. The front is forecast to reach 

from near 31N70W to near the northern Bahamas Sat evening with 

gale-force winds mainly east of the front north of 29N. By Sun 

evening, the front will reach from near 31N47W to the Central 

Bahamas with winds diminishing below gale-force. This system will

generate a new set of large NW swell, which will reinforce the 

swell generated by the first front.



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Low pressure over the Louisiana will

lift northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley today, 

dragging a cold front across the most of the Gulf through Sat. 

Strong to near gale force winds E of the front will diminish 

through tonight. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow 

the front, reaching gale force off Mexico today and tonight, 

between Tampico and Veracruz. These winds and seas will diminish 

this weekend, as the front stalls over the southeast Gulf. Winds 

will diminish below gale-force by Sat.



Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large long-period northwest 

swell with wave periods of 12 to 14 seconds continues to 

propagate across the subtropical Atlantic waters. Seas greater

than 12 ft associated to this swell cover the waters N of 23N 

between 32W and 74W. These conditions will propagate eastward 

across the Atlantic waters, being reinforced by a set of new NW 

swell as discussed above. Seas will peak in excess of 20 ft north

of 27N between 47W and 66W tonight. Seas of 12 ft or greater are 

forecast to continue spreading southeastward through at least the 

upcoming weekend.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough moves off the coast of Africa near 07N12W to

05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 00N43W. Numerous 

moderate convection is depicted from 04N to 07N east of 17W.

Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 00N to 03N between

17.5W to 26.5W. 



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on

a Gale Warning for the western Gulf waters off Tampico, Mexico; 

and the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz, Mexico.



A 1008 mb low is centered near 29N91W, with cold front extending 

SW to near 20N96W. Strong to near-gale force SW winds are N of 24N

and east of the front to 87W. Seas of 13-15 ft are within 90 nm 

of the low N of 27N. Elsewhere E of 87W, moderate to fresh SE 

winds with seas in the 6-8 ft range. Fresh to strong NW winds are 

west of the front. Seas over these waters are in the 8-10 ft 

range. E of 87W, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, 

prevail.



For the forecast, low pressure over the Louisiana will lift 

northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley today, dragging 

a cold front across the most of the Gulf through Sat. Strong to 

near gale force winds E of the front will diminish through 

tonight. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow the 

front, reaching gale force off Mexico today and tonight, between 

Tampico and Veracruz. These winds and seas will diminish this 

weekend, as the front stalls over the southeast Gulf. Looking 

ahead, a reinforcing cold front will move into the Gulf early next

week, followed by strong winds and rough seas, possibly reaching 

gale force off Veracruz late Mon.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A dissipating cold front extends from the Atlantic to north of St

Kitts & Nevis to near 16N68W where it transition to a trough that

extends to 15N71W. Fresh to locally strong winds are within 90 nm

of the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere 

over the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over 

the eastern and western Caribbean. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in

the central Caribbean, 3-5 ft in the western Caribbean, and 2-3 

ft over the eastern Caribbean.



For the forecast, a frontal boundary over the far northeast 

Caribbean will stall and dissipate this afternoon. High pressure 

will build in the wake of the front across the western Atlantic 

into Sat. Large, long-period northerly swell will also accompany 

the front, impacting the Atlantic passages into the northeast 

Caribbean Sat, the Atlantic waters east off the Leeward Islands 

starting Sat night, and the waters east of the Windward Islands by

early Sun before subsiding into Mon. The pattern will also 

support moderate to fresh trade winds over the eastern and south- 

central Caribbean, with stronger winds pulsing off Colombia 

through early next week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the Special Features section above for information 

on the potential rounds of gale-force winds over the northerly 

waters over the next several days, and on an associated 

significant swell event impacting a large portion of the central 

and western waters.



A dissipating cold front extends from 31N40W to the NE Carribbean

and is producing scattered moderate convection north of 27N

between 35W and 44W. A reinforcing front extends from 31N48W to 

central Bahamas. Aside from the area of gale force winds, fresh to

near gale force winds prevail over the waters N of 22N between 

30W and 72W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Aside 

from the seas greater than 12 ft, seas 8 ft or greater cover the 

majority of the remainder of the discussion waters. The main 

exception is east of the Windward Islands to 46W, where seas of 

6-7 ft prevail.



For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned dissipating cold

front will move little today, ahead of a reinforcing front from 

31N48W to central Bahamas. Winds to gale force are both ahead and

behind the reinforcing front north of 28N, with rough to very 

rough seas. These winds and seas will move southeast of Bermuda 

today. The fronts will merge late today and shift east of the area

by early Sat. Farther west, expect SW gales and rough seas off 

northwest Florida late tonight into early Sat, ahead of another 

cold front that will move off the coast Sat. This front will shift

across the forecast waters and exit east of the area through Mon.

As with the earlier front, gale force winds and rough seas are 

possible over the northern waters in the vicinity of the front 

through Sun. Winds and seas will diminish as high pressure builds 

over the basin Sun into Mon. 



$$

KRV