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AXNT20 KNHC 102336

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Sat Jan 11 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2235 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Gale Warnings: A cold front extends from 31N44W to 

eastern Cuba. Gale-force winds in association with these front 

are currently north of 27N between 36W and 55W. Rough to very 

rough seas accompany the front as described in greater detail 

below. The front will quickly shift eastward, with gale-force 

winds continuing through Sat. The front and any remaining associated

gale-force winds will shift northeast and east of the area Sat 

afternoon. 



Another cold front will impact the SW N Atlantic waters,

approaching from the west tonight. Southerly winds offshore 

northern Florida will increase to gale-force late tonight north 

of 30N and ahead of the front. The front is forecast to reach 

from near 31N70W to near the northern Bahamas Sat evening with 

gale-force winds mainly east of the front north of 29N. By Sun 

evening, the front will reach from near 31N47W to the Central 

Bahamas with winds diminishing below gale-force. This system will

generate a new set of large NW swell, which will reinforce the 

swell generated by the first front.



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Low pressure over the western Florida

panhandle will lift northeastward across the lower Mississippi 

Valley tonight, dragging a cold front across the most of the Gulf

through Sat. Strong to near gale force winds E of the front will 

diminish through tonight. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas 

will follow the front, reaching gale force off Mexico tonight, 

between Tampico and Veracruz. These winds and seas will diminish 

this weekend, as the front stalls over the southeast Gulf. Winds 

will diminish below gale-force by Sat.



Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large long-period northwest 

swell with wave periods of 12 to 14 seconds continues to 

propagate across the subtropical Atlantic waters. Seas greater

than 12 ft associated to this swell cover the waters N of 23N 

between 30W and 70W. These conditions will propagate eastward 

across the Atlantic waters, being reinforced by a set of new NW 

swell as discussed above. Seas will peak in excess of 20 ft north 

of 27N between 47W and 66W tonight. Seas of 12 ft or greater are 

forecast to continue spreading southeastward through at least the 

upcoming weekend.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of

Guinea near 10N14W to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to

02N30W and to 00N43W. No deep convection is noted near these

boundaries.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on

a Gale Warning for the western Gulf waters off Tampico, Mexico; 

and the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz, Mexico.



A strong cold front extends from a 1005 mb low pressure in the 

western Florida panhandle to Veracruz. A few light showers are 

seen near the frontal boundary. The cold and dry continental 

airmass moving over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters behind the 

front result in stratocumulus clouds covering most of the western 

and northern Gulf. A strong ridge over the central and western 

United States is forcing strong to gale-force northerly winds 

behind the front. Rough seas are found behind the front. Strong to

near gale-force southerly and moderate to rough seas are noted 

ahead of the front, especially north of 26N. Elsewhere, moderate 

or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure will lift 

northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon, 

dragging a cold front across the most of the Gulf through Sat. 

Fresh to strong winds and rough seas follow the front, reaching 

gale force off Mexico through tonight off the coast of Mexico from

Tampico to Veracruz. These winds and seas will diminish this Sun,

as the front stalls over the southeast Gulf and dissipates. 

Looking ahead, a reinforcing cold front will move into the Gulf 

early next week followed by strong winds and rough seas, possibly 

reaching gale force off Veracruz late Mon.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A surface trough enters the NE Caribbean and extends southwestward

to the central Caribbean. A few showers are noted near this

boundary. Fresh to locally strong winds are found in the central

Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring within 90 nm of the

coast of Colombia, Gulf of Venezuela and southern Hispaniola. 

Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and

slight to moderate seas are found elsewhere in the Caribbean.



For the forecast, a cold front will move into the far northeast

Caribbean overnight, then stall and dissipate through late Sat

night. High pressure will build in the wake of the front across 

the western Atlantic into Sat. Large, long- period northerly swell

will also accompany the front, impacting the Atlantic passages 

into the northeast Caribbean Sat, the Atlantic waters east off the

Leeward Islands starting Sat night, and the waters east of the 

Windward Islands by early Sun before subsiding into Mon. The 

pattern will also support moderate to fresh trade winds over the 

eastern and south- central Caribbean, with stronger winds pulsing 

off Colombia through early next week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the Special Features section above for information 

on the potential rounds of gale-force winds over the northerly 

waters over the next several days, and on an associated significant

swell event impacting a large portion of the central and western 

waters.



The pressure gradient is tightening in the waters off NE Florida,

resulting in fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft. A

high pressure located north of Bahamas maintains light to gentle

winds and moderate to rough seas between 70W and 77W. Farther

east, a cold front extends from the north- central Atlantic near 

31N44W to 20N65W and to eastern Cuba. Ahead of the front, a 

surface trough is extends from 30N42W to the Leeward Islands. 

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen on satellite

imagery ahead of the trough and north of 26N. Aside from the area

of gale force winds, fresh to near gale force winds prevail over 

the waters N of 22N between 30W and 70W. Gentle to moderate winds

are noted elsewhere. Aside from the seas greater than 12 ft, seas

8 ft or greater cover the majority of the remainder of the 

discussion waters. The main exception is east of the Windward 

Islands to 46W, where seas of 6-7 ft prevail.



For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front is moving south of 22N

west of 55W this afternoon. Strong to gale force are both ahead 

and behind the front north of 22N, between 55W and 70W, along with

large, long- period northerly swell. The winds will diminish 

overnight into Sat as the front moves southeast of the area and 

weakens. Farther west, expect SW gales and rough seas off 

northwest Florida late tonight into early Sat, ahead of another 

cold front that will move off the coast Sat. This front will shift

across the forecast waters and exit east of the area through Mon.

As with the earlier front, gale force winds and rough seas are 

possible over the northern waters in the vicinity of the front 

through Sun. These winds and seas will diminish as high pressure 

builds over the basin Sun into Mon. Looking ahead, another front 

will move into the waters off northeast Florida Tue. 



$$

Delgado