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AXNT20 KNHC 110545

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Sat Jan 11 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0530 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...



A first cold front passes through 31N42W, to 24N50W 20N60W, to 

the northern coast of the Dominican Republic that is close to 70W.

A surface trough is within 90 nm to 180 nm to the SSE of the first

cold front. A second cold front is about 660 nm to the NNW of the

first cold front. Expect these conditions for the next 18 hours 

or so: gale-force S to SW winds, and very rough seas, from 26N

northward between 35W and 43W; strong to near gale-force SW winds,

and rough to very rough seas, from 23N northward elsewhere between

35W and 49W; gale-force W winds, and high seas, from 28N northward

between 46W and 55W; strong to near gale-force W to NW winds, and

very rough to high seas, elsewhere from 23N northward between 43W

and 66W; wind speeds are 20 knots or less, and rough to very rough

seas in NW swell, in the remainder of the area that is from 16N

northward between 35W and 75W. Precipitation: scattered moderate 

to isolated strong is from 28N northward between 34W and the first

cold front. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period

that ended at 1100 UTC, are: 0.12 in Bermuda. This information is

from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation 

Tables/MIATPTPAN.



A second area of gale-force winds is imminent, off the coast of

Florida. Expect soon: gale-force SW winds, and rough seas, from

30N northward between 78W and 81W; strong to near gale-force SW

winds, and rough seas, elsewhere from 27N northward between 76W

and 81W. These conditions are forecast to last until Saturday

night. The wind speeds are forecast to be gale-force, and the seas

heights are forecast to range from rough to very rough, from

Saturday night until Sunday night.



...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...



A 1008 mb low pressure center is in SW Georgia close to 

31N83.5W. A cold front extends from the low pressure center, to 

24N90W, and to the northern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec

of southern Mexico. A stationary front extends from the 1008 mb 

northeastward, into the Atlantic Ocean. A surface trough is within

160 nm to the SSE of the cold front. Strong and faster winds in

general are to the northwest of the cold front. Expect these

conditions for the next 12 hours or so: gale-force NW to N winds,

and rough seas, from 19N to 21N between 95W and 97W, including

within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz in Mexico; strong to near

gale-force NW to N winds, and rough seas, elsewhere from 18N to 

30N between 85W and 97W; strong to near gale-force SW to W winds,

and rough seas, from 26N to 30N between 83W and 88W.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT...



Large long-period 12 seconds to 14 seconds northwest swell 

continues to propagate through the subtropical Atlantic Ocean.

Rough to very rough seas in general are from 20N northward.

These conditions will continue to move eastward through the 

Atlantic Ocean waters. New cold fronts will reinforce the 

continuing wave height situation. Sea heights of 12 feet or higher

are forecast to continue to move southeastward through the 

upcoming weekend. The peak sea heights will be higher than 20 feet

tonight, from 27N northward between 47W and 66W.



Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is 

issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details

about each situation. 



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern

Liberia, to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W, to 01N33W.

Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated

strong is from 10N southward between 07W and 24W.



GULF OF MEXICO...



Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about

a Gale-force Wind Warning, and the other wind speeds and sea

heights, that are to the northwest of the current Gulf of Mexico

cold front. 



A cold front extending from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of 

Campeche will move across the most of the eastern Gulf through 

Sat. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas follow the front, 

reaching gale force off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. These winds

and seas will diminish this Sun, as the front stalls over the 

southeast Gulf and dissipates. A reinforcing cold front will move 

into the Gulf early next week followed by strong winds and rough 

seas, possibly reaching gale force off Veracruz late Mon. 



CARIBBEAN SEA...



The southwestern parts of the first Atlantic Ocean cold front, and

the Atlantic Ocean surface trough, reach the Caribbean Sea. The

cold front is along 19N/20N between 60W and the Dominican

Republic. The surface trough is about 180 nm to the SSE of the

cold front.



Moderate seas, and fresh to strong NE winds, are from 20N 

southward between the Mona Passage and 80W. Slight seas, and

moderate or slower winds, are in the remainder of the Caribbean 

Sea. 



The monsoon trough is along 06N73W in Colombia, through the 

western sections of Panama, and beyond southern Costa Rica, into 

the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered 

moderate isolated strong is from 13N southward from 79W westward.



A cold front will move into the far northeast Caribbean 

overnight, then stall and dissipate through late Sat night. High 

pressure will build in the wake of the front across the western 

Atlantic into Sat. Large, long-period northerly swell will also 

accompany the front, impacting the Atlantic passages into the 

northeast Caribbean Sat, the Atlantic waters east off the Leeward 

Islands starting Sat night, and the waters east of the Windward 

Islands by early Sun before subsiding into Mon. The pattern will 

also support moderate to fresh trade winds over the eastern and 

south-central Caribbean, with stronger winds pulsing off Colombia 

through early next week. 



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about

the Gale-force Wind Warning, and the Significant Swell Event.

Strong and faster large scale surface cyclonic wind flow is from 

31N67W 20N51W 20N42W 31N24W northward. Fresh anticyclonic wind

flow is from 13N northward from 30W eastward. Fresh NW wind flow

is elsewhere from the first cold front northward between 58W and

70W. Rough to very rough seas in general are from 20N northward.

Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.



A cold front is moving south of 21N west of 55W. Strong to near 

gale force winds are both ahead and behind the front north of 24N,

between 55W and 65W, along with large, long- period northerly 

swell. The winds will diminish overnight into Sat as the front 

moves southeast of the area and weakens. Farther west, expect SW 

gales and rough seas off northwest Florida late tonight into early

Sat, ahead of another cold front that will move off the coast 

Sat. This front will shift across the forecast waters and exit 

east of the area through Mon. Gale force winds and rough seas are 

possible over the northern waters in the vicinity of the front 

through Sun. These winds and seas will diminish as high pressure 

builds over the basin Sun into Mon. Another front will move into 

the waters off northeast Florida Tue.



$$

mt/al