****0000006124****
AXNT20 KNHC 111635

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Sat Jan 11 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1615 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a low pressure

off Cape Hatteras to central Florida. Gale-force SW-W winds are

occurring north of 29N and between 68W and 77W. Seas in these

waters are 12-17 ft. The front will move rapidly across the 

forecast waters and exit east of the area through Mon. Gale force 

winds and rough seas will impact the northern waters in the 

vicinity of the front through Sun. The front will generate a 

reinforcing set of NW swell over the Atlantic waters, discussed 

below. 



Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large long-period northwest 

swell with wave periods of 13 to 15 seconds are propagating 

across the subtropical Atlantic waters. Seas greater than 12 ft 

associated to this swell cover the waters N of 18N between 30W 

and 65W. These conditions will propagate eastward across the 

Atlantic waters, being reinforced by a set of new NW swell as 

discussed above. Seas are peaking in excess of 19 ft north of 30N

between 44W and 55W. Seas of 12 ft or greater are forecast to 

spread eastward through the weekend.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ

extends from the southern coast of Liberia near 05N08W to 02N30W

and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of

07N and east of 25W.



GULF OF MEXICO...



A cold front continues to move swiftly eastward across the eastern

Gulf of Mexico, extending from SW Florida to NE Yucatan. The rest

of the Gulf is under an extensive subtropical ridge position over

the southern US and northern Mexico. Stratocumulus clouds cover

most of the basin behind the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong

northerly winds and rough seas to 12 ft are found in the Bay of

Campeche. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are

occurring in the central and eastern Gulf waters. Elsewhere,

moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are

prevalent.



For the forecast, a cold front extending from Port Charlotte,

Florida to Merida, Mexico will move into the southeastern Gulf 

today. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas following 

the front will diminish tonight into Sun, as the front stalls over

the southeast Gulf and dissipates. A reinforcing cold front will 

move into the Gulf early next week followed by strong winds and 

rough seas, possibly reaching near-gale off the coast of Veracruz,

Mexico Mon night. 



CARIBBEAN SEA...



A surface trough extends from Dominica in the Leeward Islands to

the central Caribbean waters and a few showers are present near

this boundary. The remainder of the basin is under a weak

subtropical ridge position north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower

pressures in northern Colombia support fresh to locally strong

easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean and moderate

to fresh easterly breezes in the north-central Caribbean. Seas in

the central Caribbean are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 

winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, large, long- period northerly swell will move 

into the Atlantic passages into the northeast Caribbean today, the

Atlantic waters east off the Leeward Islands starting tonight, 

and the waters east of the Windward Islands by early Sun before 

subsiding into Mon. Meanwhile, high pressure building across the 

western Atlantic today will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds

over the eastern and south- central Caribbean, with strong winds 

pulsing off Colombia through the middle of next week. 



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the Special Features section above for information 

on gale-force winds over the northern waters through Sun, and on 

an associated significant swell event impacting a large portion of

the central and western waters.



Outside from the features discussed in the Special Features 

section, a cold front extends from 31N37W to the Leeward Islands 

near 16N61W. Fresh to near gale winds are noted N of 23N and between

25W and 60W. Aside from the gale force winds off northern 

Florida, fresh to near gale winds are N of the northern Bahamas, 

and W of 60W. A 1018 mb high is centered near 24N67W, with light 

to gentle winds in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to 

moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere over the discussion 

waters. Aside from the seas greater than 12 ft, seas of 8 ft or 

greater cover the waters N of 15N and E of 74W. Elsewhere, seas of

6-7 ft are noted.



For the forecast W of 55W, SW gales and rough seas prevail off

northeast Florida associated with a cold front currently reaching

from 31N77W to near Fort Pierce, Florida. The front will reach 

from Bermuda to Fort Lauderdale, Florida by this evening, from 

31N55W to the Straits of Florida early Sat, before stalling along 

roughly 21N late Sun into Mon. The gale force winds and rough seas

will impact the waters north of 28N in the vicinity of the front 

through Sun. These winds and seas will diminish as high pressure 

builds over the basin Sun into Mon. Looking ahead, a reinforcing 

front will move into the waters off northeast Florida Tue, and 

reach from Bermuda to South Florida Wed. 



$$

Delgado