****0000005917****
AXNT20 KNHC 112325

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Sat Jan 11 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2300 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Gale Warning: Winds to gale force and rough to very

rough seas prevail between northeast Florida and Bermuda 

associated with a cold front currently extending from 31N72W to 

the Upper Florida Keys. The front will reach from 31N55W to the 

Straits of Florida early Sun, before stalling then dissipating 

along roughly 21N late Sun into Mon. The gale force winds of 30

to 40 kt and very rough seas of 12 to 20 ft will impact the 

waters north of 28N in the vicinity of the front through Sun. 

These winds and seas will diminish as high pressure builds over 

the basin Sun into Mon.



Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large long-period northwest 

swell, with wave period of 13 to 15 seconds, is propagating 

across the subtropical Atlantic waters. Seas greater than 12 ft 

associated to this swell event covers the waters E of 60W and N 

of a line from 27N35W to 21N45W to 17N60W. These marine conditions

will propagate eastward across the Atlantic waters, and be reinforced

by a new set of long period NW swell associated with the cold 

front mentioned above. Seas are now peaking 19 ft north of 28N 

between 43W and 53W, and this swell event will continue to spread

eastward through the weekend while gradually subsiding. However,

on Sun, seas of 12 to 20 ft related to the new swell event will 

cover the waters N of 27N and E of 70W. 



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of

Liberia and extends westward to near 04N15W. The ITCZ continues

from 04N15W to the equator at 32W. Scattered moderate convection

is present from 03N to 06N between 13W and 18W. 



GULF OF MEXICO...



A cold front is over the far SE Gulf of Mexico, and extends from

the Florida Keys to the Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure follows

the front, and dominates the remainder of the Gulf waters. Fresh

to locally strong northerly winds are seen per scatterometer data 

behind the front to about 25N, and also in the NE Gulf. Seas of 9

to 11 ft are noted in the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh 

northerly winds and moderate seas are occurring elsewhere across 

the Gulf region except in the NW part where moderate or weaker 

winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Cold air 

stratocumulus clouds cover most of the basin behind the frontal 

boundary.



For the forecast, winds and seas behind the aforementioned cold 

front will diminish across the Gulf through tonight as the front 

stalls then dissipates. A reinforcing cold front will move into 

the Gulf of Mexico early next week followed by strong winds and 

rough seas, possibly reaching near gale-force off the coast of 

Veracruz, Mexico Mon night.



CARIBBEAN SEA...



A surface trough extends from Dominica in the Leeward Islands to

the central Caribbean waters roughly along 15N and a few showers

are present near this boundary. A cold front is approaching the 

Yucatan Channel. High pressure of 1016 mb located NE of Puerto 

Rico near 23N60W dominates the NE Caribbean. Under this weather 

pattern, fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are 

occurring in the south-central Caribbean while moderate to fresh 

easterly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted in the north- 

central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight

to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, large, long- period northerly swell is moving 

across the Atlantic passages into the northeast Caribbean and 

the Atlantic waters east off the Leeward and Windward Islands. 

This swell event will subside from late Sun through early Mon. 

Meanwhile, high pressure building across the western Atlantic 

will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the eastern and 

south-central Caribbean, with strong winds pulsing off Colombia 

through the middle of next week.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front extending from 31N72W to the Upper Florida Keys 

is producing gale-force winds. Seas associated with this front 

and another cold front stretching from 31N34W to 20N47W are going

to impact a large portion of the Atlantic forecast waters. 

Please, refer to the Special Features section above for more 

details. 



Outside from the features discussed in the Special Features 

section, a ridge dominates the eastern Atlantic, including the

Madeira, Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. Based on satellite

derived winds data, fresh to strong winds are affecting most of 

waters N of 25N and W of 30W due to the presence of the above

mentioned cold fronts. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity

of a high pressure of 1016 mb located NE of Puerto Rico. Gentle

to moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere over the discussion

waters. Aside from the seas greater than 12 ft previously mentioned,

seas in excess of 8 ft cover most of the waters N of 15N and E of

the Bahamas. Elsewhere, seas of 6 to 7 ft are noted.



For the forecast W of 55W, looking ahead, a reinforcing front 

will move into the waters off northeast Florida Tue, and reach 

from Bermuda to South Florida Wed. 



$$

GR