****0000005835****
AXNT20 KNHC 121828

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Sun Jan 12 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1600 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front curves southwestward from the

north-central Atlantic across 31N56W to the central Bahamas.

Near-gale to gale-force winds are noted near this front north of 

29N between 49W and 53W. Seas in this area are peaking at 15 to 

18 ft. As the front progresses eastward and gradually weakens this

evening, it should allow winds to subside below gale-force late

tonight.



Atlantic Significant Swell Event: In addition to the gale winds

mentioned earlier, large long-period W to NW swell will continue 

to produce seas of 12 to 15 ft across the western and central 

Atlantic north of 26N between 35W and 66W. The leading edge of 

12-ft seas is going to move farther southeastward to near 21N 

later this afternoon. Afterward, seas will gradually retreat 

northward and decay, which should allow them to drop below 12 ft 

early Sunday morning.



Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshores Waters 

Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and 

https://www.nch.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more 

information.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



A monsoon trough reaches westward off central Liberia to 06N14W.

An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 06N14W through 06N22W to

01N40W. Widely scattered showers are observed near both features

and southward to the Equator.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A stationary front extends west-northwestward from the Straits of

Florida to 25N88W, then continues as a warm front to a 1011 mb low

just off Corpus Christi. Scattered showers are occurring near and

up to 150 nm north of this boundary. Fresh to strong southerly

winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are seen at the western Bay of Campeche.

Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for

the rest of the Gulf.



For the forecast, a 1009 mb low pressure over the coast of Texas 

near Baffin Bay will lift northeast through the early part of the 

week, dragging a cold front into southern Gulf through Tue night. 

Fresh to strong wind and moderate to rough seas will follow the 

front, possibly reaching near-gale force off the coast of Veracruz

Mon night. The front will stall and become diffuse over the 

southern Gulf through mid-week. Looking ahead, winds and seas will

diminish Thu as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers from the Gulf

of Honduras to near Jamaica. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas at

6 to 9 ft are present at the south-central basin. Moderate to 

fresh E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in large N swell are noted at the

north-central basin, including the Mona Passage. Gentle to 

moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in 

the Caribbean Sea.



For the forecast, large, long- period northerly swell moving 

through the Atlantic passages into the northeast Caribbean and the

Atlantic waters east of the Leeward and Windward Islands will 

subside late tonight through early Mon. Meanwhile, high pressure 

building across the western Atlantic will maintain moderate to 

fresh trade winds over the eastern and south- central Caribbean, 

with strong winds pulsing off Colombia through the middle of next 

week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to SPECIAL FEATURES above for gale winds and a 

significant swell in the ATLC waters.



A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic

across 31N56W to near the central Bahamas. Scattered showers are

seen near and up to 100 nm south of this feature. Convergent

southerly winds are producing similar conditions farther east,

north of 24N between 35W and 53W. A stationary front extends

southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across 31N30W to near

the northern Windward Islands. Patchy showers are occurring up to

50 nm along either side of this front. 



Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong SW to NW winds and

seas of 10 to 15 ft are evident north of 26N between 40W and 65W.

To the west, gentle to moderate W to NW winds and 5 to 9 ft seas

dominate north of 22N and west of 65W. Farther east, gentle to

moderate SE to SW winds and seas at 10 to 12 ft are present north

of 20N between 35W and 40W. Gentle winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in

moderate N swell are seen from 17N to 22N and west of 35W. For 

the Tropical Atlantic from 00N to 17N between 35W and the Lesser

Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas 

in mixed moderate swell prevail.



For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue to move 

southeast today, before stalling along roughly 21N late tonight 

into Mon and dissipating Tue. Winds will decrease as high pressure

builds over the basin into Mon. Large swell mainly east of 75W 

will gradually subside west of 60W through late Tue. A reinforcing

front will move into the waters off northeast Florida Tue, and 

reach from Bermuda to South Florida Wed, before stalling along 22N

through Thu. Another round of large, long-period NW to N swell 

will follow the reinforcing front over the waters east of 75W. 



$$



Chan