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AXNT20 KNHC 122324

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Mon Jan 13 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2300 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N53W to the

central Bahamas where it becomes a stationary front crossing the

Straits of Florida. The most recent scatterometer data indicate 

strong to gale force SW winds N of 27N and E of the front to 

about 48W while fresh to strong W to NW winds follow the front N

of 27N to about 70W. Rough to very rough seas are associated

with this system, peaking 20 ft along 31N. Seas in excess of 12 

ft dominate the waters N of 27N and E of 70W. Seas 8 ft or 

greater cover most of the waters E of 60W, and N of 25N between 

60W and 74W. The cold front will continue to move southeast 

through this evening, before stalling along roughly 21N late 

tonight into Mon and dissipating Tue. Winds will diminish below 

gale force, ahead of the front, by tonight. Then, winds will 

decrease from W to E W of 55W as high pressure builds over the 

western Atlantic, in the wake of the front, on Mon. The swell 

event will gradually subside west of 60W through late Tue.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 

Liberia and continues westward to near 06N15W. The ITCZ extends

from 06N15W to 05N25W to the equator at 38W. No significant

convection is noted.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A stationary front crosses the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf

reaching the central Gulf near 25N90W, then continues as a warm 

front to a weak 1013 mb low pressure located just off Corpus 

Christi. A surface trough runs from the low center to inland in 

central Mexico. Scattered showers are occurring near this boundary.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted per scatterometer data

in the wake of the stationary front. Moderate to locally fresh E

to SE winds dominate most of the western half the Gulf region. 

Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the NE Gulf 

where a ridge is noted associated with a 1022 mb high pressure 

situated over N Florida. 



For the forecast, the low pressure off the coast of Texas will 

lift northeast through the early part of the week, dragging a 

cold front into southern Gulf through Tue night. Fresh to strong 

wind and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, possibly 

reaching near-gale force off the coast of Veracruz Mon night. The

front will stall and become diffuse over the southern Gulf through

mid-week. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish Thu as 

high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



High pressure of 1022 mb located over N Florida extends a ridge

across the western Atlantic, the Bhamas and Cuba while the

Atlantic ridge reaches the NE Caribbean. A weakening stationary

front is producing some shower activity across the central 

Lesser Antilles, particularly between Martinique and Guadeloupe. 

A patch of low level clouds with possible showers extends from

the Cayman Islands to northern Belize. Fresh to strong NE to E 

winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are present in the south-central

Caribbean, with the strongest winds of 30 kt near the coast of 

Colombia. Mainly gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas 

prevail elsewhere, with the exception of seas in the 1 to 3 ft 

range in the lee of the Greater Antilles, and in the Gulf of 

Honduras.



For the forecast, large, long-period northerly swell moving 

through the Atlantic passages into the northeast Caribbean and 

the Atlantic waters east of the Leeward and Windward Islands will

subside late tonight through early Mon. Meanwhile, high pressure

building across the western Atlantic will maintain moderate to 

fresh trade winds over the eastern and south-central Caribbean, 

with strong winds pulsing off Colombia through the middle of next

week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A Gale Warning, and a significant swell event are associated 

with a cold front that extends from 31N53W to the central 

Bahamas. Please, refer to the Special Features section for more 

information. 



To the E of the cold front, a stationary front stretches from 

31N30W to the central Lesser Antilles. A few showers are along 

the frontal boundary, especially near the islands. The remainder

of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by a 1032 mb high 

pressure located W of Portugal. A band of light a variable winds

is observed roughly from 17N to 23N between 40W and 74W under 

the influence of the above mentioned ridges. Gentle to moderate 

winds dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic as well as 

the waters between the W coast of Africa and the aforementioned 

stationary front. E of 35W, seas are generally 6 to 8 ft, except

8 to 13 ft w of a line from 31N24w to 20N32W due to the swell

event perviously mentioned that is propagating eastward.



For the forecast W of 55W, a reinforcing cold front will move 

into the waters off northeast Florida Tue, and reach from Bermuda

to South Florida Wed, before stalling along 22N through Thu. 

Another round of large, long-period NW to N swell will follow 

the reinforcing front over the waters east of 75W Thu, and shift 

to east of 65W by late Fri. 



$$

GR