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AXNT20 KNHC 131818

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Mon Jan 13 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1600 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Significant Swell Event: 

Large, long-period NW swell is impacting the central Atlantic,

producing 12 to 23 ft seas north of a line from 32N63W to 24N60W

to 27N48W to 31N38W. The southern edge of this swell will dig

farther southward to near 21N tonight, while seas will subside to

between 12 and 17 ft. As the NW swell continues to subside, seas 

greater than 12 ft should retreat northward to north of 31N by 

late Tuesday night.



Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts

issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more 

details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



A monsoon trough stays mostly over the Africa continent. An ITCZ

extends west-southwestward from offshore of southern Liberia at

05N11W across 02N25W to 01N37W. Scattered moderate convection is 

noted near the ITCZ from 02N to 06N between 12W and 27W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A cold front extends southwestward from a 1013 mb low pressure 

just southeast of New Orleans, Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico. 

A warm front reaches east-southeastward from this same low to near

Tampa, Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are

occurring up to 50 nm southeast, and 150 nm northwest of this

boundary. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft

are evident at the NE Gulf. Mainly moderate southerly winds and

seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted at the southeastern Gulf. Ligh to

gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.



For the forecast, the low will lift northeastward and inland 

today, with a trailing cold front moving eastward into the 

eastern Gulf through Tue. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to 

rough seas will follow the cold front, reaching near-gale force 

offshore Veracruz, Mexico, tonight. The front will stall and 

dissipate over the southeastern Gulf Wed, with winds and seas 

diminishing as high pressure builds into the basin thereafter.

 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Convergent trade winds are triggering scattered showers across

the southeastern basin near the ABC Islands. A surface trough is

causing widely scattered showers at the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to

strong ENE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present at the south-

central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas

dominate the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE

winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the

basin.



For the forecast, large, long-period northerly swell moving 

through the Atlantic passages into the northeast Caribbean and the

Atlantic waters east of the Leeward and Windward Islands will 

subside today, but be replaced by reinforcing swell tonight into 

Wed. Meanwhile, high pressure building across the western Atlantic

will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the eastern and 

south-central basin, with strong winds pulsing off Colombia into 

late week.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning on 

significant swell in the Atlantic.



A cold front curves southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic

across 31N42W to northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands at

22N68W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring

up to 50 nm north, and 80 nm south of this boundary. Two surface

troughs are producing widely scattered showers from 13N to 24N

between 37W and 54W. 



Outside the significant swell area, gentle to moderate NW winds

and 6 to 12 ft seas in moderate NW swell are present north of the

cold front, west of 55W. East of the front to 35W, moderate to 

fresh SE winds and seas at 10 to 11 ft are evident. From 17N to

23N between 42W and Hispaniola, light to gentle winds and 6 to 8

ft seas are noted. For the tropical Atlantic, gentle to moderate

ENE to E winds along with 8 to 11 ft seas are evident from the

Equator to 17N between 35W and the Lesser ANtilles.



For the forecast W of 55W, cold front will stall today and 

dissipate tonight, as high pressure builds over the area. Large 

swell east of 70W will gradually subside west of 60W through late 

Tue. Another cold front will move into the waters off northeast 

Florida tonight, reach from Bermuda to South Florida Tue night, 

then stall over the SE waters through Thu. Another round of large,

long- period NW to N swell will follow the front over the waters 

east of 75W Wed night and shift to east of 55W by Fri night. ida 

Wed, before stalling along 22N through Thu. Another round of 

large, long- period NW to N swell will follow the reinforcing 

front over the waters east of 75W Thu, and shift to east of 55W by

late Fri. 



$$

Chan