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AXNT20 KNHC 140432

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0605 UTC Tue Jan 14 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0429 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Significant Swell Event: 

Large, long-period NW swell is impacting the central Atlantic, 

producing 12 to 19 ft seas north of 22N between 37W and 61W. 

This is in the wake of a cold front that extends from 31N39W to 

north of the Dominican Republic. This swell will dig farther 

southward to near 21N tonight, while seas will subside to 

between 12 and 17 ft. As the NW swell continues to subside, seas 

greater than 12 ft should retreat northward to north of 31N by 

Tuesday night.



Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters 

Forecasts

issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more 

details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 06N11W and 

extends southwestwards to 04N14W. The ITCZ extends from 04N14W 

to 01N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the ITCZ 

and monsoon trough from 02N to 06N between 14W and 34W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A frontal boundary extends southwestward into the Bay of 

Campeche from a 1016 mb low pres analyzed near 29N83W. Abundant 

cloudiness is noted in satellite imagery across the northwestern 

Gulf in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and 

rough seas prevail in the wake of the front, while gentle to 

moderate SW winds and moderate seas are noted SE of the front.



For the forecast, the aforementioned low will move NE and inland 

tonight, with the stationary front dissipating Tue night. Fresh 

to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the 

front, reaching near gale force offshore Veracruz, Mexico, 

tonight. Winds and seas will diminish starting Wed as high 

pressure builds into the basin.

 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present at 

the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 5 

to 7 ft seas dominate the north-central basin. Gentle to 

moderate ENE to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the 

remainder of the basin.



For the forecast, a set of large, long-period NW to N swell will 

arrive in Atlantic passages and waters E of the Leeward and 

Windward Islands tonight, then continue into Wed. High pressure 

building across the western Atlantic will maintain moderate to 

fresh trade winds over the eastern and south- central Caribbean, 

with strong winds pulsing off Colombia through late week.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on

the significant swell in the Atlantic.



A cold front extends from 31N39W to north of the Dominican 

Republic and is producing isolated moderated convection north of 

27N along the front axis. In addition, scattered moderate 

convection is found north of 27N between 36W and 31W in 

association to a pre-frontal trough. Outside the significant 

swell area, gentle to moderate NW winds and 6 to 12 ft seas are 

west of 60W. East of the front to 32W, moderate to fresh SE 

winds and seas at 6 to 10 ft are noted. For the tropical 

Atlantic, gentle to moderate ENE to E winds along with 8 to 11 

ft seas are evident from the Equator to 17N between 35W and the 

56W.



For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will stall 

tonight and dissipate over the far SE waters Tue as high 

pressure builds over the area. Large swell east of 67W will 

gradually subside west of 60W through late Tue. Another cold 

front will move into the waters off northeast Florida tonight. 

This front will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Keys Tue 

night, then exit the SE waters Thu. Another round of large, long-

 period NW to N swell will follow the front over the waters east 

of 75W Wed and shift to east of 55W by Fri night.



$$

KRV