****0000003967****
AXNT20 KNHC 140844

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Tue Jan 14 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0830 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Significant Swell Event: 

Large, long-period NW swell is impacting the central Atlantic.

Seas greater than 12 ft cover the waters N of a line from 30N58W

to 21N50W to 30N35W, with seas peaking around 17 ft near 30N40W.

The swell will shift eastward while subsiding today, with

combined seas decreasing below 12 ft late tonight.



Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 07N12W and 

extends to 04N16W. The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 00N37W. 

Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 16W

and 34W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A frontal boundary extends southwestward into the Bay of 

Campeche from a 1018 mb low pres off the coast of NE Florida.

Fresh to strong winds are over the SW Gulf West of the front with

fresh winds elsewhere W of the front. E of the front, gentle winds

prevail. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range W of the front and 3-5 ft E

of the front. 



For the forecast, the front will dissipate tonight, with a trough

lingering over the western Gulf through Thu. Fresh to strong 

winds W of the front and trough will diminish Thu as the trough 

dissipates. High pressure will build across the basin by the end 

of the week.

 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Fresh to strong trade winds, and seas of 7 to 10 ft are over the 

south-central basin. Moderate to fresh trade winds, and seas of 4

to 6 ft, seas are noted over the north-central basin. Gentle to 

moderate trade winds, and seas at 3 to 5 ft, prevail over the 

remainder of the basin.



For the forecast, large long-period NW to N swell will impact the

Atlantic passages and waters E of the Leeward and Windward 

Islands into Wed. High pressure building across the western 

Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the 

eastern and south- central Caribbean, with strong winds pulsing 

off Colombia through late week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on

the significant swell in the Atlantic.



A cold front that currently extends from 31N37W to just N of 

Hispaniola. Low pres, and associated cold front have entered the 

NW waters off the coast of E Florida. Between the fronts, a 1021

mb high pressure is centered near the central Bahamas. Light to

gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high, with gentle to

moderate winds generally prevailing elsewhere. Aside from the area

discussed in the Special Features section above, seas 8 ft or

greater cover much of the waters E of 65W. The main exception is E

of the Windward Islands, where seas of 6-8 ft are noted. W of 65W,

seas are in the 4-7 ft range.



For the forecast W of 55W, the front will dissipate over the far 

SE waters today as high pressure builds over the area. Large swell

east of 65W will gradually subside west of 60W through late 

today. A cold front over the waters off northeast Florida will 

reach from Bermuda to the Florida Keys tonight, then exit the SE 

waters Thu. Another round of large, long- period NW to N swell 

will follow the front over the waters east of 75W Wed and shift to

east of 55W by Fri night. 



$$

AL