****0000004704****
AXNT20 KNHC 141749

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Tue Jan 14 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1800 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Significant Swell Event: 

Large, long-period NW swell is impacting the central Atlantic.

Seas greater than 12 ft cover the waters N of a line from 30N55W

to 21N45W to 30N32W, with seas peaking around 15 ft near 30N40W.

The swell will shift eastward while subsiding today, with combined

seas decreasing below 12 ft late tonight. Looking ahead, another

round of significant NW swell will impact the waters N of 25N

between 40W and 70W starting Wednesday and persisting through

Friday, with wave heights of 12-18 ft possible.



Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 07N11W and 

extends to 05N13W. The ITCZ extends from 05N13W to 00N37W. 

Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 

16W and 46W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A frontal boundary extends across the SE and south-central Gulf 

from the coast of Florida near Naples. Meanwhile, a surface trough

is analyzed from the south-central Bay of Campeche to the Texas

coast near Port Mansfield. Fresh to strong winds are north of the

front, as well as over the far SW Gulf W of the trough. S and E 

of the front, gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the 6-10 ft range

W of the front and 3-6 ft S and E of the front. 



For the forecast, a cold front that extends from the Florida 

Peninsula to the SW Gulf of Mexico will slide E of the area 

tonight, while a surface trough lingers over the western basin 

through Thu. Strong NW winds will prevail W of the trough into Thu

night before the trough dissipates as high pressure builds south 

into the basin by the end of the week. 

 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are over the 

south-central and SW basin. Moderate to fresh trade winds, and 

seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted over the north-central basin. Gentle 

to moderate trade winds, and seas at 3 to 5 ft, prevail over the 

remainder of the basin.



For the forecast, large long-period NW to N swell will impact the

Atlantic passages and waters E of the Leeward and Windward 

Islands into Wed. High pressure building across the western 

Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the 

eastern and south- central Caribbean, with strong winds pulsing 

off Colombia as well as offshore Hispaniola through late week. 

Additional significant long period swell may arrive into Atlantic 

passages by Fri.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on

the significant swell in the Atlantic.



A cold front currently extends from 31N37W to just N of 

Hispaniola. Another cold front extends from 31N71W to the SE

Florida coast. Between the fronts, a 1022 mb high is centered 

near 26N70W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the 

high, with gentle to moderate winds generally prevailing 

elsewhere. The main exception is in the vicinity of the Canary

Islands, where moderate to fresh NE winds prevail, along with

localized areas of strong NE winds between the islands. Aside 

from the area discussed in the Special Features section above, 

seas 8 ft or greater cover much of the waters E of 65W. The main 

exception is E of the Windward Islands, where seas of 6-8 ft are 

noted. W of 65W, seas are in the 4-7 ft range.



For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front that currently extends 

from 20N55W to the Mona Passage will dissipate over the far SE 

waters tonight as high pressure builds over the area. Large swell 

east of 65W will gradually subside through tonight. Another cold 

front that extends from Bermuda to Central Florida will reach from

31N60W to the Central Bahamas tonight, then continue E and exit 

the waters by Thu night. Another round of large, long- period NW 

to N swell will follow this front over the waters east of 75W Wed 

and shift to east of 55W by Fri night. 



$$

Adams