****0000004379****
AXNT20 KNHC 150428

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0605 UTC Wed  Jan 15 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0428 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large, long-period NW swell is 

impacting the central Atlantic. Seas greater than 12 ft cover 

the waters N of 24N between 50W and 29W. Seas are peaking around 

14 ft near 30N37W. The swell will shift eastward while subsiding 

tonight, with combined seas decreasing below 12 ft by early Wed. 

Looking ahead, another round of significant NW swell will impact 

the waters N of 25N between 40W and 70W starting Wed afternoon 

and persisting through Friday, with wave heights of 12-18 ft 

possible.



Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 10N14W and 

extends southwestward to 06N15W. The ITCZ extends from 06N15W to 

02S40W. Numerous moderate convection is noted south of 03N and 

east of 35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 

04N between 15W and 22W. 



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A surface trough is analyzed from the south-central Bay of 

Campeche to the Texas coast near 27N97W. Isolated moderate 

convection is found in the trough axis. Moderate to fresh NE to 

E winds prevail across the Gulf, except over the Bay of Campeche 

where gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 5-8 ft 

range across the basin. 



For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough will linger 

over the western part of the basin into Thu night. Strong N 

winds will prevail W of the trough. At the end of the week, 

southerly winds may increase to fresh to strong ahead of the 

next cold front.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A dissipating cold front is analyzed  from the Island de la 

Juventud to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to strong 

trade winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are over the south-central and 

SW basin. Moderate to fresh trade winds, and seas of 4 to 6 ft 

are noted over the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate trade 

winds, and seas at 3 to 5 ft, prevail over the remainder of the 

basin.



For the forecast, large, long-period NW to N swell will impact 

the Atlantic passages and waters E of the Leeward and Windward 

Islands into Wed. High pressure building across the western 

Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the 

eastern and south- central Caribbean, with strong winds pulsing 

off Colombia as well as offshore Hispaniola into Fri night.

Additional long period swell is likely to arrive into Atlantic 

passages by Fri. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on

the significant swell in the Atlantic.



A stationary front currently extends from 31N38.5W to 18N58W 

then it begins to dissipate to 17N63W. A cold front extends from 

31N64W to central Cuba. Between the fronts, a 1021 mb high is 

centered near 23N71W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity 

of the high, with gentle to moderate winds generally prevailing 

elsewhere. The main exception is in the vicinity of the Canary 

Islands, where moderate to fresh NE winds prevail. Aside from 

the area discussed in the Special Features section above, seas 8 

ft or greater cover much of the waters E of 63W. W of 63W, seas 

are in the 4-7 ft range.



For the forecast W of 55W, large swell east of 60W will subside 

through tonight. A cold front that extends from 31N62W to 

central Cuba will reach from 31N52W to the SE Bahamas by Wed 

morning before stalling over the far SE waters Thu night. 

Another round of large, long- period NW to N swell will follow 

this front over the waters east of 75W Wed and shift to east of 

55W by Fri night.



$$

KRV