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AXNT20 KNHC 151757

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Wed Jan 15 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1800 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Another round of significant NW

swell is beginning as a cold front moves across the western

subtropical Atlantic this afternoon. Fresh to strong NW winds are

occurring behind the front, which is currently analyzed from

31N58W to the central Bahamas. Significant NW swell will continue

to impact the waters N of 27N between 55W and 75W this afternoon 

and evening, with waves of 12-14 ft occurring N of 29N between 60W

and 75W this afternoon. NW swell will then spread eastward to 

affect waters N of 26N between 50W and 70W Thursday through early 

Friday, with wave heights of 12-18 ft possible. Seas will then 

subside on Friday.



Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 10N14W and 

extends southwestward to 02N17W. The ITCZ extends from 02N17W to 

03S40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 

noted along and within 300 nm of the ITCZ.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A surface trough is over the western Gulf, with ridging extending

across the remainder of the central and eastern Gulf. Fresh to

locally strong E winds prevail across the Gulf waters N of 22N, 

reaching locally near-gale force in an area of scattered showers

and isolated thunderstorms from 23N to 26N between 91W and 94W.

Moderate to fresh NW winds are W of the surface trough. For areas

S of 22N, E winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are in the 5-8 ft 

range across the basin. 



For the forecast, a surface trough will linger over the western 

part of the basin into Thu night. Fresh to strong N winds will 

prevail N and W of the trough through Thu evening, with fresh to 

strong SE winds E of the trough to 87W today. At the end of the 

week, southerly winds may increase to fresh to strong ahead of the

next cold front. That front is forecast to reach from SW 

Louisiana to lower Texas early Sat, then from near Tampa Bay, 

Florida to the SW Gulf early Sun. Fresh to strong N winds and 

building seas may follow the front.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail over the central and SW 

Caribbean, as well as in the lee of Cuba, and through the northern

Caribbean Passages. Moderate to fresh trades are noted elsewhere.

Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the central and SW Caribbean, 

and 4-6 ft over the north central and eastern Caribbean. Over the 

NW Caribbean, seas of 3-5 ft are noted. 



For the forecast, high pressure building across the western 

Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the 

eastern and south-central Caribbean, with strong winds pulsing off

Colombia, Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba at times through at least 

Fri night. Long-period northerly swells will impact Atlantic 

passages through the end of the week. Fresh to strong trades may 

develop in the Tropical N Atlantic this weekend, gradually 

building seas.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on

the significant swell in the Atlantic.



A cold front extends from 31N58W to the central Bahamas, while a 

dissipating stationary front extends from 31N37W to the northern 

Windward Islands. Moderate to fresh W winds prevail over the 

waters N of 30N and W of 35W, with gentle to moderate winds 

elsewhere. Moderate to fresh E winds are also occurring in the 

vicinity of the Canary Islands. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range N of

07N between 19W and 55W. Elsewhere, seas of 4-7 ft prevail. 



For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front that extends from 31N58W 

to the SE Bahamas will stall and weaken over the far SE waters by 

Thu night. Fresh to strong winds mainly behind the front will 

impact the waters north of 29N. The front has ushered in a set of 

large, long- period NW to N swell over the waters east of 75W. The

swell will shift to the east of 55W by Fri night. Another cold 

front will move across the basin Thu night into early Sat, with 

new large swell mainly north of 27N, along with fresh to strong 

winds. Another front may impact the waters off northern Florida 

this weekend with increasing winds and seas on either side of it.



$$

Adams