****0000004815****
AXNT20 KNHC 152242

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Thu Jan 16 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2230 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Another round of significant NW

swell is already entering the western Atlantic mainly N of 30N

between 60W and 70W in the vicinity of a cold front currently N 

of the area. Fresh to strong NW winds are occurring behind the 

front. The swell will continue to impact the waters N of 27N 

between 55W and 75W this evening, with waves of 12-14 ft, then 

spread eastward to affect waters N of 26N between 50W and 70W 

Thursday through early Friday, with wave heights of 12-18 ft. Seas

will then subside on Friday.



Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 10N14W and 

extends southwestward to 02N18W. The ITCZ extends from 02N18W to 

02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 

300 nm of the ITCZ.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A surface trough is over the western Gulf along 95W, with ridging

extending across the remainder of the central and eastern Gulf. 

Fresh to strong E winds prevail across the NW Gulf waters N of 

22N and W of 90W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are elsewhere E of 

the surface trough. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range across the 

basin. 



For the forecast, the surface trough will linger over the western

part of the basin into Thu night. Fresh to strong N winds will 

prevail N and W of the trough into Thu evening, with moderate to 

fresh SE winds E of the trough to 87W tonight. Fresh to locally 

strong winds will dominate the basin by the end of the week, ahead

of a cold front forecast to reach from SW Louisiana to lower 

Texas early Sat, then from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the SW Gulf 

early Sun, pushing SE of the basin Sun night. Fresh to strong N 

winds and building seas may follow the front into next week.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail over the central and SW 

Caribbean, as well as in the lee of Cuba, and through the northern

Caribbean Passages. Moderate to fresh trades are noted elsewhere.

Seas are in the 8-9 ft range over the central and SW Caribbean, 

and 4-7 ft over the north central and eastern Caribbean. Over the

NW Caribbean, seas of 3-5 ft are noted. 



For the forecast, high pressure building across the western 

Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the 

central Caribbean, with strong winds pulsing off Colombia, 

Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba at times through at least Fri night. 

High pressure in the wake of a stalling and dissipating front 

mainly north of the area will build across the entire basin early 

next week with fresh to locally strong winds. Long-period 

northerly swells will impact Atlantic passages through the end of 

the week. Fresh to strong trades may develop in the Tropical N 

Atlantic this weekend into early next week, gradually building 

seas.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on

the significant swell in the Atlantic.



A cold front extends from 31N54W to the southern Bahamas. Fresh 

to strong NW winds are occurring along and behind the front, while

moderate to fresh are noted E of the front. To the E, an area of

fresh NE winds prevails near the Canary Islands. Seas are in the 

8-12 ft range N of 07N between 19W and 55W. Elsewhere, seas of 4-7

ft prevail. 



For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will stall and weaken 

over the far SE waters by Thu night. Fresh to strong winds mainly 

behind the front will impact the waters north of 29N. Large, long-

period NW to N swell north of 27N and east of 75W associated with

the front will shift to the east of 55W by Fri night. Another 

cold front will move across the basin Thu night into early Sat, 

with new large swell mainly north of 27N, along with fresh to 

strong winds. Another front may impact the waters off northern 

Florida this weekend with increasing winds and seas on either side

of it. The front should stall and weaken over the central waters 

early next week.



$$

ERA