****0000005366****
AXNT20 KNHC 160429

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0605 UTC Thu  Jan 16 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0424 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Another round of significant 

NW swell is already entering the western Atlantic mainly N of 

29N between 55W and 72W in the vicinity of two cold fronts. 

Fresh to strong NW winds are occurring behind and between the 

fronts. The swell will continue to impact the waters N of 27N 

between 55W and 75W tonight, with waves of 12-16 ft, then spread 

eastward to affect waters N of 26N between 45W and 70W Thursday 

through early Friday, with wave heights of 12-18 ft. Seas will 

then subside on Friday.



Another cold front will move across the basin Thu night into 

early Sat, with new large swell mainly north of 27N, along with 

fresh to strong winds. 



Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 10N14W and 

extends southwestward to 02N23W. The ITCZ extends from 02N23W to 

00N38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 

300 nm of the ITCZ.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A surface trough is over the western Gulf along 95W, while a 

cold front is forming over the NW Gulf. Scattered moderate 

convection is depicted over the NW Gulf in association with the 

forming cold front. Ridging extends across the remainder of the 

central and eastern Gulf. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail 

across the NW Gulf waters N of 22N and W of 95W. Moderate to 

fresh E to SE winds are elsewhere E of the surface trough. Seas 

are in the 5-8 ft range across the basin. 



For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough will linger 

over the western part of the basin into Thu night. Fresh to 

strong N winds will prevail W of the trough into Thu evening, 

with moderate to fresh SE winds E of the trough to 87W tonight. 

Fresh to locally strong winds will dominate the basin by the end 

of the week, ahead of a cold front forecast to reach from SW 

Louisiana to lower Texas early Sat, then from near Tampa Bay, 

Florida to the SW Gulf early Sun, pushing SE of the basin Sun 

night. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas may follow the 

front into next week.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail over the central and SW 

Caribbean, as well as in the lee of Cuba, and through the 

northern Caribbean Passages. Moderate to fresh trades are noted 

elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the central and SW 

Caribbean, and 4-7 ft over the north central and eastern 

Caribbean. Over the NW Caribbean, seas of 3-6 ft are noted. 



For the forecast, high pressure building across the western 

Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the 

central Caribbean, with strong winds pulsing off Colombia, 

Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba at times through at least Fri 

night. High pressure will further build across the entire basin 

early next week with fresh to locally strong winds. Long-period 

northerly swells will impact Atlantic passages through the end 

of the week. Fresh to strong trades may develop in the Tropical 

N Atlantic this weekend into early next week, gradually building 

seas.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on

the significant swell in the Atlantic.



A cold front extends from 31N47W to the Turks and Caicos. A 

second cold front extends from 31N61N to 31N80W. Fresh to strong 

NW winds are occurring along and behind the fronts, while 

moderate to fresh winds are noted E of the first front. To the 

E, an area of fresh NE winds prevail near the Canary Islands. 

Seas are in the 8-10 ft range N of 04N between 19W and 55W. 

Elsewhere, seas of 4-7 ft prevail. 



For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front that extends from 26N55W 

to near the Turks and Caicos Islands will stall and weaken over 

the far SE waters by Thu night. A second cold front extends from 

31N61W to 31N80W. This front will shift rapidly across the 

northern waters, moving E of the area by Thu night. Fresh to 

strong winds in the vicinity of these fronts will impact the 

waters north of 29N. Large, long- period NW to N swell north of 

27N and east of 75W associated with the fronts will shift to the 

east of 55W by Fri night. Another cold front will move across 

the basin Thu night into early Sat, with new large swell mainly 

north of 27N, along with fresh to strong winds. Another front 

may impact the waters off northern Florida this weekend with 

increasing winds and seas on either side of it. The front should 

stall and weaken over the central waters early next week.



$$

KRV