****0000003728****
AXNT20 KNHC 160850

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Thu Jan 16 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0830 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Significant Swell Event: NW swell has propagated into 

the northern discussion waters, with seas 12 ft or greater over 

the waters N of 29N between 55W and 70W. Seas are currently 

peaking near 15 ft. Seas 12 ft or greater will shift eastward 

through tonight while slowly subsiding. By early Fri, seas will 

decrease below 12 ft. 



Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 09N14W and 

extends southwestward to 03N25W. The ITCZ extends from 03N25W to 

00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm of 

the ITCZ/monsoon trough.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A surface trough is over the western Gulf, with a cold front over

the NW Gulf. Fresh to strong winds are noted west of the front and

trough. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the

8-11 ft range over the western Gulf, with 4-7 ft seas elsewhere. 



For the forecast, the surface trough will linger over the western

part of the basin into late tonight. Fresh to strong N winds will

prevail W of the trough today. Fresh to locally strong winds will

dominate the basin by Fri night, ahead of a cold front forecast 

to move into the western part of the basin Sat. The front will 

shift across the Gulf, pushing SE of the basin Sun night. Fresh to

strong N winds and building seas will follow the front into next 

week. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with

seas in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6

ft are noted elsewhere. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail over the 

central Caribbean, pulsing to strong speeds off Colombia. Strong 

winds will pulse off Hispaniola and eastern Cuba at times through

at least Fri night. Long-period northerly swells will impact 

Atlantic passages through the end of the week. Fresh to strong 

trades may develop in the Tropical N Atlantic this weekend into 

early next week, gradually building seas. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on

significant swell in the Atlantic.



A front extends from 31N47W to the Turks and Caicos. A second 

cold front extends from 31N58W to the northern Bahamas. Fresh to 

strong winds are N of 29N between 45W and 70W. Gentle to moderate 

winds generally prevail elsewhere. Aside from the area of 12 ft or

greater seas, 8 ft or greater seas cover the waters N of 26N 

between 45W and 75W, as well as much of the waters E of 45W. 

Elsewhere, seas of 5-7 ft prevail. 



For the forecast W of 55W, large, long- period NW to N swell 

north of 27N and east of 75W will shift to the east of 55W by Fri 

night. Otherwise, a series of cold fronts will impact the waters N

of 27N through the weekend into early next week. Fresh to strong 

winds in the vicinity of these fronts will impact the waters north

of 29N. 



$$

AL