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AXNT20 KNHC 161737

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Thu Jan 16 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1800 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Significant Swell Event: NW swell has propagated into 

the northern discussion waters, with seas 12 ft or greater over 

the waters N of 27N between 45W and 70W. Seas are currently 

peaking near 15 ft. Seas 12 ft or greater will shift eastward 

through tonight while slowly subsiding. By early Fri, seas will 

decrease below 12 ft. 



Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 09N13W and 

extends southwestward to 01N26W. The ITCZ extends from 01N26W to 

01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 250 nm of 

the ITCZ/monsoon trough.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A 1018 mb low is centered near 26N91W. A cold front extends from 

the low southwestward to 20N95W. A stationary front extends from 

the low eastward into the Florida Straits. A surface trough also 

extends from the low southward across the Bay of Campeche to 

inland Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 

observed in an area north of 23N between the stationary front and 

the trough. Fresh to strong E to NE winds are N of the stationary 

front to about 28N, while fresh to strong NW winds are to the N 

and W of both the low and cold front. Moderate to fresh E winds 

are N of 28N, while moderate to fresh S winds are S of the 

stationary front. Seas are 7-11 ft to the N and W of both the low 

and cold front. Seas are 3-7 ft across the remainder of the basin.



For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to NW winds and rough seas 

will occur over northern and western portions of the basin today 

as a low pressure system moves southeastward through the Gulf of 

Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are expected 

across the basin on Fri and Sat ahead of a cold front moving 

through the southern U.S. and into the northwestern Gulf on Sat. 

Fresh N winds will follow the front on Sat, with winds 

strengthening to strong across much of the basin on Sun. Rough 

seas will accompany these winds Sun through early next week. 

Looking ahead, another strong cold front will lead to fresh to 

strong winds and rough to very rough seas across the Gulf of 

Mexico early next week. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A shear line is analyzed across the eastern, central, and SW 

Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail north of the shear 

line over the central to NE Caribbean and the northern Caribbean 

Passages, with seas in the 6-8 ft range in these regions. Moderate

to locally fresh winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere

south of the shear line and in the NW Caribbean.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds will occur across 

the southwestern, central and northeastern Caribbean through this 

weekend as a tight pressure gradient prevails between low pressure

in northwestern Colombia and high pressure in the western 

Atlantic. Winds will pulse to strong speeds offshore of Colombia, 

through the Mona Passage and downwind of Hispaniola, and rough 

seas will accompany the strong winds. Long-period NE to E swell 

will lead to rough seas through the Atlantic Passages this weekend

into early next week. Looking ahead, fresh to strong E to NE 

winds and building seas will impact much of the basin early next 

week as a strong cold front moves through the Gulf of Mexico. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on

significant swell in the Atlantic.



A front extends from 31N47W to the northern coast of Hispaniola. 

A second cold front extends from 31N55W to 26N69W. Moderate to

fresh W to NW winds are N of 26N between 45W and 70W, with 

localized areas of strong winds along and north of 30N. Another

area of moderate to fresh E winds is analyzed via scatterometer

data E of 24W between 22N and 28N. Gentle to moderate E to NE 

winds generally prevail elsewhere across the basin. Aside from the

area of 12 ft or greater seas mentioned in the Special Features

section, 8 ft or greater seas cover the waters N of a line

extending from 31N33W to 24N63W to 31N74W. Moderate seas prevail 

across the remainder of the basin.



For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front in the central Atlantic 

will progress eastward today, producing fresh to strong SW winds 

ahead of the front, and fresh to locally strong NW winds behind 

the front, generally north of 28N and east of 60W. A long-period N

swell associated with this system will produce widespread rough 

seas across much of the Atlantic into this weekend, producing seas

in excess of 8 ft north of 25N and east of 75W today, and north 

of 20N by Fri morning. Seas greater than 12 ft are expected north 

of 28N and east of 70W today. A strong cold front moving off the 

coast of the southeastern United States will reinforce rough seas 

north of 28N and east of 80W by Fri morning. Fresh to strong W to 

NW winds, generally north of 28N, will follow the front. South of 

20N, moderate to fresh trades and locally rough seas will prevail.

Looking ahead, another cold front moving off the coast of the 

southeastern U.S. will lead to strong winds and building seas in 

the northwestern Tropical Atlantic Sat into early next week.



$$

Adams