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AXNT20 KNHC 162324

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Fri Jan 17 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2300 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Long period NW swell follows a

couple of cold front moving across the central Atlantic. Seas 12

ft or greater dominate the waters N of 27N between 45W and 70W. 

Seas are currently peaking near 15 ft along 31N. This swell event

will continue to propagate eastward tonight while slowly subsiding.

Seas are forecast to decrease below 12 ft on Fri, but a large

area of seas in the 8 to 11 ft range will continue to affect

most of the waters N of 20N and E of 60W, and N of 27N between 

60W and 75W by Fri afternoon. 



Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters through the coast

of Sierra Leone near 08.5N13W and extends southwestward to 

01N26W. The ITCZ extends from 01N26W to 02N42W to 00N50W. 

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 

02N to 06N between 05N to 14N. This convective activity is 

affecting parts of Liberia. Scattered moderate convection is seen

within about 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 42W and 48W. 



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A weak 1018 mb low pressure system is centered near 25N89W. A 

cold front extends from the low center to the central Bay of 

Campeche. A stationary front stretches from the low eastward into

the Florida Straits. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms

are observed over the SE Gulf in the vicinity of the stationary 

frontal boundary. Low level clouds, with patches of light rain, 

are banking up against the E slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains

in Mexico. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas follow the 

cold front, while fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted per 

scatterometer data N of the stationary front over the eastern 

Gulf where moderate seas prevail, with the exception of slight

seas in the coastal waters of W Florida. 



For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to NW winds and rough seas 

will occur over northern and western portions of the basin today 

as a low pressure system moves southeastward through the Gulf of 

Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are expected 

across the basin on Fri and Sat ahead of a cold front moving 

through the southern U.S. and into the northwestern Gulf late on 

Sat. Fresh N winds will follow the front by early Sun, with winds

strengthening to strong speeds across much of the basin on Sun. 

Rough seas will accompany these winds Sun through early next 

week. Looking ahead, another strong cold front will lead to 

strong to potentially near-gale force winds and very rough seas 

across the Gulf of Mexico early next week. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A shear line is analyzed from the northern Leeward Islands

extending southwestward to the south-central Caribbean near 

12N75W. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail north of the shear line 

over the central and NE Caribbean, including the Atlantic 

Passages. Seas are 6 to 8 ft within these winds. Gentle to 

moderate NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted south of 

the shear line and in the NW Caribbean. Low level clouds, with 

possible light showers, are associated with the shear line. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds will occur across 

the southwestern, central and northeastern Caribbean through this

weekend as a tight pressure gradient prevails between low 

pressure in northwestern Colombia and high pressure in the 

western Atlantic. Winds will pulse to strong speeds offshore of 

Colombia, through the Mona and Windward Passages and downwind of 

Hispaniola, and rough seas will accompany the strong winds. Long-

period NE to E swell will lead to rough seas through the 

Atlantic Passages this weekend into early next week. Looking 

ahead, fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas will 

impact much of the basin early next week as a strong cold front 

moves through the Gulf of Mexico. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on

a significant swell event currently propagating cross the Atlantic

forecast waters.



A front extends from 31N45W to the northern coast of Hispaniola.

It is followed by a second cold front that stretches from 31N52W

to the NW Bahamas where it becomes a stationary front that 

continues westward across the Straits of Florida. Fresh to 

locally strong NW winds are observed in the wake of the second 

cold front, particularly N of 28N W of the front to near 70W. 

Fresh to locally strong SW winds are occurring E of the main 

front, mainly N of 28N E of the front to about 44W. A surface 

trough is noted over the eastern Atlantic and runs from 28N21W 

to 20N22W to 14N18W. Satellite derived wind data indicate the 

wind shift associated with the trough axis as well as fresh SE 

winds on the E side of the trough covering roughly the waters 

from 23N to 28N between 18W and 21W. Gentle to moderate winds and

moderate seas dominate the remainder of the Atlantic forecast 

region. 



For the forecast W of 55W, a  cold front in the central Atlantic

will progress eastward tonight, producing fresh SW winds ahead 

of the front, and moderate to locally fresh NW winds behind the 

front, generally north of 28N and east of 70W. A long-period N 

swell associated with a very strong storm system in the central 

Atlantic will produce widespread rough seas across much of the 

waters into this weekend, with seas in excess of 8 ft north of 

23N and east of 75W tonight, and north of 20N by Fri morning. 

Seas greater than 12 ft are expected north of 28N and east of 65W

tonight. A strong cold front moving off the coast of the southeastern

United States will reinforce rough seas north of 28N and east of

80W by late tonight. Fresh to strong W to NW winds, generally 

north of 28N, will follow the front. South of 20N, moderate to 

fresh trades and locally rough seas will prevail through this 

weekend. Looking ahead, another cold front moving off the coast 

of the southeastern U.S. will lead to strong winds and building 

seas in the northwestern Tropical Atlantic Sat into early next 

week. 



$$ 

GR