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AXNT20 KNHC 170517

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Fri Jan 17 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0515 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic waters through the coast 

of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 01N28W. The 

ITCZ extends from 01N28W to the coast of NE Brazil near 00N50W. 

Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 06N and west of 

37W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A warm front extends from a 1015 mb low pres near 25N88W to

southern Florida. Light showers are seen on satellite imagery over

the eastern Gulf with the strongest convection occurring in the

Florida Straits. The rest of the basin is under a 1026 mb high

pressure system centered over the southern Mississippi Valley,

forcing fresh to locally strong northerly winds off Vercruz. Seas

in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh northerly 

winds are found over much of the remainder of the western Gulf, 

west of 90W, while similar in strength but easterly winds are 

noted within 120 nm north of the warm front. Seas are 5-8 ft in 

the area described. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to

moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, low pressure of 1015 mb is near 24N88W, with a 

warm front extending east-northeastward to south-central Florida 

and as a cold front extends from the same low southwestward to the

eastern Bay of Campeche. High pressure of 1027 mb is centered 

just east of Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and 

rough seas are over western Gulf S of about 27N. These conditions 

are expected to diminish tonight into Fri as the low pressure and 

associated cold front weaken while shifting eastward. Afterwards, 

moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are expected across the 

basin Fri through Sat ahead of a cold front moving through the 

southern U.S. and into the northwestern Gulf late on Sat. Fresh N 

winds will follow the front by early Sun, with winds increasing to

strong speeds across much of the basin on Sun. Rough seas will 

accompany these winds Sun through early next week. Looking ahead, 

another strong cold front will lead to strong to potentially near-

gale force winds and very rough seas across the Gulf of Mexico 

early next week. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Satellite imagery indicate that the shear line that extends from

the Leeward Islands to the south-central Caribbean Sea continues 

to produce a few showers, especially north of Colombia. The

remainder of the basin is under the influence of a 1023 mb high

pressure system north of Bahamas.



A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong NE

winds in the central and NE Caribbean, with the strongest winds

occurring off southern Hispaniola and off NW Colombia. Seas in

these waters are 5-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and

slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will occur across the 

southwestern, central and northeastern Caribbean through this 

weekend as a tight pressure gradient prevails between low pressure

in northwestern Colombia and high pressure in the western 

Atlantic. Winds will pulse to strong speeds offshore of Colombia, 

through the Mona and Windward Passages and downwind of Hispaniola,

and rough seas will accompany the strong winds. Long period NE to

E swell is expected to bring rough seas through the Atlantic 

Passages beginning Fri and into early next week. Looking ahead, 

fresh to strong trades along with building seas will impact much 

of the basin early next week as a strong cold front moves through 

the Gulf of Mexico. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A 1023 mb high pressure system dominates the SW North Atlantic,

forcing fresh to strong westerly winds north of 28N and west of

60W. Seas in these waters are 5-10 ft, with the highest seas near

31N65W. A couple of cold front are moving eastward across the

central Atlantic, producing some light showers. Fresh southerly

winds are noted ahead of the boundary, especially north of 29N and

between 33W and 38W. A diminishing swell event is generating seas

of 9-13 ft, especially from a line north of 31N35W to 23N58W and

west to 60W. Elsewhere, fresh easterly winds are present from 14N

to 27N and east of 25W. Seas in the area described are 5-8 ft. In

the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas

are prevalent. 



For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extending from near 31N48W

to 26N60W and to 24N70W will weaken as it moves east-

southeastward over the SE part of the area Fri. Fresh north to 

northeast winds north of the front will shift to northeast to east

Fri. Long period N swell associated with a very strong storm 

system in the central Atlantic will produce widespread rough seas 

across much of the waters into the weekend, with seas in excess of

8 ft expected N of about 20N by Fri morning. Fresh to strong W to

NW winds in the wake of a front over the NW part of the area will

shift to the far north- central waters Fri, and to just east of 

the far NE par of the area early Sat. South of 20N, moderate to 

fresh trades and locally rough seas will prevail through this 

weekend. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to move off

the southeastern U.S. coast early next week, followed by mostly 

strong N winds and building seas over the NW part of the area. 



$$

Delgado