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AXNT20 KNHC 170938

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Fri Jan 17 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0930 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic waters through the 

coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 01N28W.

The ITCZ extends from 01N28W to the coast of NE Brazil near 

00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from

02N to 05N between 40W and 48W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Low pressure of 1017 mb is analyzed near 24N86W, with a warm

front extending northeastward across South Florida. A cold front 

extends from the low southwestward to just inland the northern

Yucatan Peninsula. A shortwave upper trough moving across this 

same part of the basin is helping to enhance patches of light rain

and scattered showers over the southeastern Gulf south of 25N 

east of 86W. Otherwise, the remainder of the basin is under the 

influence of high pressure with a 1028 mb high center analyzed 

inland Mexico just west of Tampico. The gradient between the high 

pressure and lower pressure related to the front and low pressure 

is producing fresh to strong northwest winds along and near the 

coast of Veracruz. Seas with these winds are 6 to 9 ft. Fresh to 

strong northeast to east winds along with 8 ft seas are within 120

nm of the low and stationary front, roughly between 85W and 89W. 

 

Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds are elsewhere south of 

27N west of 90W, and northeast to east fresh winds are elsewhere

from 23N to 27N between 82W and 90W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these 

winds. Latest ASCAT satellite data passes generally show light to 

gentle north to northeast E of 93W and light east to southeast 

winds elsewhere W of 93W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in east swell with 

these winds.



For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure of 1017 mb and 

associated cold front will weaken today as it shifts eastward

allowing for the fresh to strong northwest winds near and  

offshore Veracruz to diminish. Afterwards, moderate to locally 

fresh south to southwest winds are expected across the basin Fri 

through Sat ahead of a cold front moving through the southern U.S.

and into the northwestern Gulf late on Sat. Fresh north winds 

will follow the front by early Sun, with winds increasing to 

strong speeds across much of the basin on Sun, possible reaching 

gale force in the far west-central Gulf offshore Tampico Sun and 

in the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz Sun night. Rough seas are 

expected with these winds as well. Looking ahead, another strong 

cold front will lead to strong to near gale force winds across the

basin, with winds potentially at gale force speeds across 

sections of the northern and western Gulf waters. Rough to very 

rough seas are expected with these winds.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Satellite imagery indicate that the shear line that extends from

the Leeward Islands to the south-central Caribbean Sea continues 

to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 

Colombia from 13N to 15N between 71W and 76W. The remainder of 

the basin is under the influence of high pressure of 1023 mb 

analyzed north of Bahamas.



Overnight ASCAT satellite data indicates fresh to strong NE winds

in the central and northeastern sections of the Caribbean, with 

the strongest winds occurring off southern Hispaniola and off NW 

Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate

or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas remain in place.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will occur across the 

southwestern, central and northeastern Caribbean through this 

weekend as a tight pressure gradient prevails between low pressure

in northwestern Colombia and high pressure in the western 

Atlantic. Winds will pulse to strong speeds offshore of Colombia, 

through the Mona and Windward Passages and downwind of Hispaniola,

and rough seas will accompany the strong winds. Long-period NE to

E swell is expected to bring rough seas through the Atlantic 

Passages starting today and into early next week. Looking ahead, 

fresh to strong trades along with building seas will impact much 

of the basin early next week as a strong cold front moves through 

the Gulf of Mexico. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A 1023 mb high center is analyzed east-northeast of the central 

Bahamas near 26N73W. The pressure difference between the high

pressure and a developing cold front to the north is resulting in

fresh to strong west to northwest winds north of about 28N west of 

68W. Seas with these winds are 6 to 8 ft. To the east, a couple 

of weakening cold front are noted. Fresh to strong west winds are 

north of 29N between 57W and 65W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with these 

winds. Seas in excess of 8 ft are to the northwest of a line from 

30N35W to 25N46W to 20N64W. Higher seas of 10 to 12 ft in 

northwest swell are north of 27N between 40W and 53W. These seas 

will subside to juts below 12 ft this afternoon. High pressure 

present over the eastern and central Atlantic is allowing for 

generally moderate to fresh trades to exist in the tropical region

south of about 20N and east of the Lesser Antilles. Seas with 

these trades are 5 to 7 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 6 

to 8 ft in north swell south of 16N and east of 48W. Moderate or 

weaker winds along with mostly moderate seas are elsewhere.



For the forecast W of 55W, a weakening cold front extending from 

near 31N44W to near 26N52W will weaken further as it moves east- 

southeastward over the SE part of the area today. Fresh north to 

northeast winds north of the front will shift to northeast to east

today. Long-period north swell associated with a large and 

complex low pressure system located well north of the area will 

produce widespread rough seas across much of the waters into the 

weekend, with seas in excess of 8 ft expected north of about 20N 

beginning today. The fresh to strong west to northwest north of 

28N west of 71W winds will merge with similar winds that are north

of 29N between 60W and 65W by early this evening. These winds 

will then shift to just east of the far northeast part of the area

early Sat. South of 20N, moderate to fresh trades and locally 

rough seas will prevail through this weekend. Looking ahead, 

another cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. 

coast early next week, followed by mostly strong north winds and 

building seas over the NW part of the area.



$$

Aguirre