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AXNT20 KNHC 172326

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Sat Jan 18 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2300 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic waters through the 

coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 

01N26W. The ITCZ extends from 01N26W to the coast of NE Brazil 

near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 

05N between 45W and 51W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Low pressure of 1017 mb is analyzed over the far SE Gulf near 

23.5N84W, with a warm front, then stationary front extending 

northeastward across the Florida Keys and South Florida. A cold 

front stretches from the low center southwestward across the NW

Caribbean. Patches of light rain and scattered showers are 

associated with these features affecting the SE Gulf, South 

Florida and the Florida Keys. The remainder of the basin is 

under the influence of a ridge, with a 1017 mb high pressure 

center located near the Florida/Georgia border. Moderate to 

locally fresh SE to S winds are noted per scatterometer data over

the western Gulf, particularly N of 24N and W of 94W. Similar 

wind speeds are occurring over the north-central Gulf, and in the

vicinity of the low and fronts. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, 

except 1 to 3 ft in the NE Gulf. 



For the forecast, the moderate to locally fresh NE winds, 

surrounding the low in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, will 

diminish this evening. Moderate to locally fresh SE to SW winds 

will develop this evening and continue through Sat across the 

northern and western Gulf as a warm front lifts northward, ahead 

of developing low pressure in the south-central United States. A 

cold front associated with the aforementioned low is expected to 

enter the northwestern basin Sat night, and fresh N winds will 

follow the front. Winds will increase to strong speeds by early 

Sun as the pressure gradient tightens between the front and 

building high pressure over the central U.S. Near-gale force 

winds will be possible on Sun over the southwestern Gulf offshore

of Tampico and Veracruz. Rough seas are expected to accompany 

the winds. Looking ahead, a very strong cold front is slated to 

move into the northwestern Gulf early next week, leading to 

strong to near gale force winds across much of the basin. Winds 

may reach gale force in portions of the northern and western 

Gulf. Rough to very rough seas are expected with these winds. 

 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Satellite imagery indicate that the shear line that extends from

the Leeward Islands to the south-central Caribbean Sea near 

12N80W continues to produce some shower activity with isolated 

thunderstorms. Patches of low level clouds, with embedded showers

and isolated thunderstorms are also moving across the Lesser 

Antilles into the eastern Caribbean, more concentrated near the 

ABC Islands. As previously mentioned, a cold front is over the NW

Caribbean reaching the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong NE 

winds are N of the shear line, and near the coast of Colombia. 

Seas in these waters are 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker

winds and slight to moderate seas remain in place.



For the forecast, widespread moderate to fresh NE to E winds 

will prevail across the southwestern, central and eastern 

Caribbean this weekend, with locally strong winds developing each

night offshore of Colombia, through the Atlantic Passages and 

downwind of Hispaniola. Locally rough seas are expected near 

strong winds. A long-period E swell will promote rough seas 

through the Atlantic Passages tonight through the middle of next 

week. Fresh to locally strong SE to E winds will develop Sat 

night in the northwestern Caribbean ahead of a cold front moving 

southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, fresh to

strong E winds and building seas will occur over much of the 

basin early next week ahead of the aforementioned cold front 

approaching the northwestern Caribbean. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A weak ridge dominates the western Atlantic where a gentle to

moderate anticyclonic flow is observed. To the east, a couple of

weakening cold front are noted. The main front extends from

31N34W to the Leeward Islands where it becomes a shear line. 

Fresh to strong west winds are north of 28N between 55W and 70W.

Seas are 8 to 11 ft with these winds. Seas in excess of 8 ft

cover the waters E of 60W and to the northwest of a line from 

28N35W to 23N46W to 19N60W, and also N of 28N between 60W and 

74W. High pressure present over the eastern and central Atlantic 

is allowing for generally moderate to fresh trades to exist in 

the tropical region south of about 20N and east of the Lesser 

Antilles. In fact, satellite derived wind data show an area of

fresh to locally trades between the W coast of Africa and the

Cabo Verde Islands. Seas with these trades are 5 to 8 ft. 

Moderate or weaker winds along with mostly moderate seas are 

elsewhere.



For the forecast W of 55W, rough to very rough seas, associated 

with a pair of cold fronts in the central Atlantic, will prevail 

north of 20N and east of 65W tonight, and rough seas will be 

reinforced north of 28N and east of 75W by swell from complex 

storm systems north of the area. Fresh to strong W to NW winds, 

associated with a trough extending from the aforementioned lows, 

will occur north of 28N and east of 72W tonight, with winds 

expanding farther east as the system treks eastward. Elsewhere, 

south of 22N, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail through 

early next week, with winds pulsing to strong speeds east of the 

Windward Islands at times. Fresh to locally strong S winds and 

rough seas are expected to develop off the coast of Florida and 

through the northern Bahamas late tonight as low pressure forms 

off the coast of the southeastern U.S., before the low moves 

northeastward this weekend. Another cold front, slated to move 

into the northwestern waters on Sun will promote fresh to strong 

SW to NW winds and rough seas north of 27N. Looking ahead, a very

strong cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. 

coast early next week, followed by strong to near-gale force N 

winds and building seas north of Cuba and west of 70W. 

 

$$

GR