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AXNT20 KNHC 180507

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Sat Jan 18 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0505 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea

near 10N13W and continues southwestward to 00N25W. The ITCZ

extends from 00N25W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is

observed south of 03N and between 31W and 37W and also south of

04N and west of 44W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A weak low pressure near the Lower Keys of Florida continues to

lose strength and no deep convection is noted across the Gulf of

Mexico. However, a few showers are noted off the coasts of Texas

and Louisiana. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are found

in the western and northern Gulf waters, especially west of a line

from Panama City, Florida, to Veracruz, Mexico. Seas in these waters

are 4-6 ft. A recent scatterometer satellite pass also captured 

fresh to locally strong SE winds in the Florida Straits. Elsewhere,

moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, fresh, to at times strong, southwest winds over the 

northern and western Gulf will continue through Sat as a warm 

front lifts northward ahead of developing low pressure in the 

south-central United States. A rather sharp cold front associated

with the aforementioned low is expected to enter the NW Gulf Sat 

morning, followed by fresh northwest to north winds will initially

follow the front. These winds are forecast to increase to strong 

speeds by early Sun as the pressure gradient tightens between the 

front and building strong high pressure over the central U.S. Near

gale to gale-force winds will be possible on Sun over the 

southwestern Gulf offshore of Tampico and offshore Veracruz. Rough

seas are expected to accompany the winds. Looking ahead, low 

pressure is expected to form over the NW Gulf early next week, 

with an attendant potent cold front. The low will track eastward 

through mid-week dragging the cold front across the entire basin. 

Near gale to gale force north to northeast winds are expected to 

move into most of the northern and western Gulf early next week. 

Rough to very rough seas are expected with these winds. Mariners 

are urged to exercise caution across the basin, including outside 

of the gale condition affected zones, due to the expansive area of

strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas associated with 

successive frontal systems. 

 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Pockets of low-level moisture moving across the eastern and 

central Caribbean Sea result in a few showers and isolated

thunderstorms, with the strongest convection occurring near the 

San Andres and Providencia Islands and the coasts of SE Nicaragua

and NE Costa Rica. A 1026 mb high pressure system centered between

Puerto Rico and Bermuda forces fresh to strong easterly trade 

winds over much of the central and eastern Caribbean, including 

the Windward Passage. This was captured by recent satellite- 

derived wind data. Seas in these waters are 5-9 ft. The strongest 

winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. In the 

remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 

moderate seas are prevalent.



For the forecast, widespread moderate to fresh E to NE winds will

prevail across the southwestern, central and eastern Caribbean

through this weekend, with locally strong winds developing each 

night offshore of Colombia, through the Atlantic Passages and 

downwind of Hispaniola. Locally rough seas are expected near 

strong winds. Long-period east swell will promote rough seas 

through the Atlantic Passages tonight through the middle of next 

week. Fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds will develop

Sat night in the northwestern Caribbean ahead of a cold front 

moving southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, 

fresh to strong east winds and building seas will occur over much 

of the basin early next week ahead of the aforementioned cold 

front approaching the northwestern Caribbean. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A broad ridge located between Puerto Rico and Bermuda dominates

the SW North Atlantic, forcing moderate to fresh easterly winds

south of 23N and between 55W and 70W and similar strength but SE

winds west of 70W, especially in the Bahamian and off NE Florida

waters. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft.



A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong

westerly winds north of 29N and between 45W and 63W. Seas in the

waters described are 8-12 ft. A cold front enters the tropical 

Atlantic near 31N34W and continues southwestward to 24N47W, 

followed by a shear line to the Leeward Islands. Moderate SW winds

and seas of 8-10 ft are noted north of 27N and between 30W and 

43W. 



The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1031

mb high pressure system centered over the Iberian peninsula. The

pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the

deep tropics result in fresh to locally strong easterly trade

winds south of 22N. Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft.

Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are evident.



For the forecast W of 55W, rough to very rough seas, associated 

with a pair of cold fronts in the central Atlantic, will prevail 

north of 20N and east of 65W tonight, and rough seas will be 

reinforced north of 28N and east of 75W by swell from complex 

storm systems north of the area. Fresh to strong west to northwest

winds associated with a trough extending from the aforementioned 

lows will occur north of 28N and east of 72W tonight, with winds 

expanding farther east as the system treks eastward. Elsewhere 

south of 22N, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail through 

early next week, with winds pulsing to strong speeds east of the 

Windward Islands at times. Fresh to locally strong south winds and

rough seas are expected to develop off the coast of Florida and 

through the northern Bahamas late tonight as low pressure forms 

off the coast of the southeastern United States before the low 

moves northeastward this weekend. Another cold front that is 

expected to move into the northwestern waters on Sun will promote 

fresh to strong southwest to northwest winds and rough seas north 

of 27N. Looking ahead, a very strong cold front is expected to 

move off the southeastern U.S. coast early next week, followed by 

strong to near-gale force north winds and building seas north of 

Cuba and west of 70W. 

 

$$

Delgado