****0000007348****
AXNT20 KNHC 180940

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Sat Jan 18 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0930 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 

Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 00N26W. The 

ITCZ extends from 00N26W to 01N39W and to near 00N50W. Scattered 

moderate convection is seen within 120 nm north of the ITCZ

between 30W and 38W. 



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Weakening low pressure of 1015 is over the southeastern Gulf 

waters near 26N83W. A small stationary front segment extends 

northeast from the low to southwest Florida, and a trailing trough

extends southwestward from the low to inland the northeast 

Yucatan Peninsula. No significant convection is occurring with 

this system. Isolated showers are possible over the northern Gulf

waters as well as along the coastal plains sections. Fresh to 

locally strong southerly winds are found in the western and 

northern Gulf waters, especially west of a line from Panama City, 

Florida, to Veracruz, Mexico. Seas over these waters are 4-6 ft. 

Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes indicated fresh to locally 

strong SE winds in the Florida Straits. Elsewhere, moderate or 

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, fresh southwest winds over the northern and 

western Gulf will continue today ahead of deepening low pressure 

in the south-central United States. A rather sharp cold front 

associated with the aforementioned low will enter the NW Gulf late

this morning, followed initially by fresh northwest to north 

winds. These winds are forecast to increase to strong speeds by 

early Sun as the pressure gradient tightens between the front and 

building strong high pressure over the central U.S. Near gale to 

gale-force winds will be possible Sun and Sun night in the 

southwestern Gulf offshore of Tampico and offshore Veracruz. Rough

seas are expected to accompany the winds. Looking ahead, low 

pressure is expected to form over the NW Gulf early next week, 

with an attendant potent cold front. The low will track eastward 

through mid-week dragging the cold front across the entire basin. 

Near gale to gale-force north to northeast winds are expected to 

move into most of the northern and western Gulf early next week. 

Rough to very rough seas are expected with these winds. Mariners 

are urged to exercise caution across the basin, including outside 

of the gale condition affected zones, due to the expansive area of

strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas associated with 

successive frontal systems.

 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Pockets of low-level moisture moving across the eastern and 

central Caribbean Sea result in a few showers and isolated

thunderstorms, with the strongest convection occurring near the 

San Andres and Providencia Islands and the coasts of SE Nicaragua

and NE Costa Rica. A 1024 mb high center is analyzed over the 

western Atlantic at 28N69W. The gradient between it and relatively

lower pressure present to its south is allowing for fresh to 

strong trades northeast to east trades to exist over much of the 

central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage as 

depicted in overnight ASCAT satellite data passes. Seas in these 

waters are around 5 to 7 ft, except for higher seas of 6 to 9 ft 

from 11N to 15N between 72W and 80W and also north 15N between 

68W and 72W. The winds of strong speeds and highest of the seas

are present off NW Colombia. Across the remainder of the basin, 

moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas remain.



For the forecast, widespread moderate to fresh northeast to east 

winds will prevail across the southwestern, central and eastern 

Caribbean through this weekend, with locally strong winds 

developing each night offshore of Colombia, through the Atlantic 

Passages and downwind of Hispaniola. Locally rough seas are 

expected near strong winds. Long-period east swell will promote 

rough seas through the Atlantic Passages tonight through the 

middle of next week. Fresh to locally strong east to southeast 

winds will develop Sat night in the northwestern Caribbean ahead 

of a cold front moving southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico. 

Looking ahead, fresh to strong east winds and building seas will 

occur over much of the basin early next week ahead of the 

aforementioned cold front approaching the northwestern Caribbean.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A broad ridge located between Puerto Rico and Bermuda dominates

the SW North Atlantic Its related gradient is inducing moderate 

to fresh easterly winds south of 23N and between 55W and 70W and 

similar strength but SE winds west of 70W, especially in the 

Bahamian and off NE Florida waters. Seas in these waters are 4-7 

ft. Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes noted fresh to strong 

westerly winds north of 29N and between 45W and 63W. Seas in the 

waters described are 8 to 12 ft. A cold front is analyzed from 

near 31N35W southwestward to 24N48W, where it transitions to a 

shear line that reaches the Leeward Islands. Moderate southwest

winds along with seas of 8 to 10 ft are north of 27N and between 

31W and 40W. 



The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of

high pressure, with a 1026 mb high center located near the 

Canary Islands. The pressure gradient between the high pressure

and comparatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is 

supporting fresh to locally strong trades south of about 22N. Seas

in the area described are 6 to 9 ft due to long-period northwest 

to north swell. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate 

seas are present.



For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong northwest winds 

associated with a cold front that extends from the central 

Atlantic to the NE part of the area will shift to E of 55W early 

this afternoon. The rough seas produced by these winds will lag 

behind before also shifting E of 55W tonight. Moderate to fresh 

trades elsewhere will prevail through the period, with winds 

pulsing to strong speeds east of the Windward Islands at times. 

Fresh to locally strong south winds and rough seas are off the 

Florida coast N of 25N in advance of a trough that is offshore the

southeastern U.S. coast. Low pressure is expected to form along 

the trough today and track NE well N of the forecast waters. A 

cold front will move into the northwestern waters on Sun inducing 

fresh to strong southwest to northwest winds and rough seas north 

of 27N. Looking ahead, a potent cold front is expected to move off

the southeastern U.S. coast early next week, followed by strong 

to near-gale force north winds and building seas north of Cuba and

west of 70W. 

 

$$

Aguirre