****0000007114****
AXNT20 KNHC 181738

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Sat Jan 18 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1720 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will exit the coast of

SE Texas later today. Gale force winds are expected Sun and Sun 

night in the southwestern Gulf offshore of Tampico and Veracruz. 

As this front and another cold front sweep through the rest of 

the Gulf of Mexico, gale force N to NE winds are expected to 

spread across most of the northern and western Gulf early next 

week. Gales will be accompanied by rough to very rough seas. 

Mariners are urged to exercise caution across the basin, including

outside of the gale condition affected offshore zones, due to the

expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas 

associated with these consecutive strong frontal systems. 



For more information on this GALE WARNING, please see the HIGH

SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 

Liberia near 07N11W and continues southwestward to 00N26W. The 

ITCZ extends from 00N26W to near 01N50W. Scattered moderate 

convection is from the equator to 03N between 33W and 39W.



GULF OF MEXICO...



Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE

WARNING that is in effect for the GULF OF MEXICO.



A cold front currently emerging into the NW Gulf of Mexico extends

from the TX/LA coastal border to the TX/Mexico coastal border. 

Fresh to locally strong NW winds follow the front, with seas to 6 

ft. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are north of 25N and east of 

the front, covering the northern Gulf waters. Seas in this area 

range from 3-6 ft, with lowest seas near the coast of NW Florida. 

South of 25N, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail with 3-6 ft 

seas. Scattered showers are evident near the Florida Panhandle.



For the forecast, fresh SW winds over the northern Gulf will 

continue today ahead of deepening low pressure in the south-

central United States. A cold front associated with the 

aforementioned low will enter the NW Gulf today, followed by 

gradually increasing NW to N winds. Winds are forecast to increase

to strong speeds by early Sun as the pressure gradient tightens 

between the front and building strong high pressure over the 

central U.S. Gale-force winds are expected Sun and Sun night in 

the southwestern Gulf offshore of Tampico and Veracruz. Looking 

ahead, low pressure is expected to form over the NW Gulf early 

next week. The low will track eastward through mid-week dragging a

cold front across the entire basin. Near gale to gale-force N to 

NE winds are expected to move into most of the northern and 

western Gulf early next week accompanied by rough to very rough 

seas. Mariners are urged to exercise caution across the basin, 

including outside of the gale condition affected zones, due to the

expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas 

associated with these consecutive strong frontal systems. 

 

CARIBBEAN SEA...



Patches of low-level moisture embedded in the trade winds may 

result in a few showers and isolated thunderstorms today. The

pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic

supports moderate to fresh trades across the eastern and central

Caribbean, as detected by scatterometer data. Trades may pule to

locally strong speeds off the south coast of Hispaniola and in the

south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Seas are 5-7 ft

in the eastern and central Caribbean, with locally 8 ft seas

possible in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia.

Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere in the NW Caribbean, 

with 3-5 ft seas.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail 

across most of the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic waters through 

this weekend, with locally strong winds developing each night 

offshore of Colombia, and through the Atlantic Passages and 

downwind of Hispaniola. Easterly trade wind swell will produce 

rough seas through the Atlantic Passages through the middle of 

next week. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will sink slowly southward 

across the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel Sun night and 

then stall and weaken across the NW Caribbean and Cuba Mon through

Tue. Fresh to strong E winds and building seas will occur over 

much of the basin early next week as strong high pressure builds 

north of the cold front.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



High pressures in the western Atlantic north of Bermuda and near

the Canary Islands are divided by two cold fronts in the central

subtropical Atlantic. One front extends from 31N37W to 24N47W, and

the other extends from 31N53W to 27N63W. Gentle to moderate winds

are near these fronts within the TAFB forecast waters. 8-12 ft

seas are north of 28N between 43W and 60W. The latest

scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong S winds across the

northern Bahamas and waters west of 74W, with seas to 8 ft. Fresh

to locally strong winds are also analyzed on Atlantic approaches

to the Leeward Islands, including within the Passages. Seas are

to 8 ft. South of 22N, across the tropical Atlantic, trades are

moderate to fresh with 8-10 ft seas. Elsewhere, winds are moderate

or weaker with 4-7 ft seas.



For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong NW winds associated 

with a cold front that extends from the central Atlantic to the NE

zones will shift E of 55W early this afternoon. Rough seas 

produced by these winds will lag behind the front before also 

shifting E of 55W tonight. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail 

elsewhere S of 23N through the period, with winds pulsing to 

strong speeds east of the Windward Islands at times. Fresh to 

locally strong S winds and rough seas are off the Florida coast N 

of 24N in advance of a stationary front that is offshore of the 

southeastern U.S. coast and northeast Florida. Low pressure along 

the front will track NE this afternoon and move well N of the 

forecast waters. A cold front will move into the northwestern 

waters on Sun inducing fresh to strong southwest winds ahead of 

the front and northwest winds behind it N of 27N. Looking ahead, a

strong cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. 

coast early next week, followed by strong to near-gale force north

winds and building seas north of Cuba and west of 70W. 

 

$$

Mahoney