****0000007422****
AXNT20 KNHC 182326

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Sun Jan 19 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2300 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front has moved into the NW 

Gulf and extends from central Louisiana to along the Texas- 

Mexico border. Northerly winds behind the front will gradually 

increase tonight, becoming strong by early Sun as the front 

reaches from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico. 

Strong high pressure over the central U.S. will build across the 

basin behind the progressing front on Sun to produce a brief 

period of gale force winds Sun afternoon in the western Gulf 

waters offshore of Tampico and Veracruz. The front is expected to

stall across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida on Mon 

and gradually dissipate through Tue. Low pressure is expected to 

form over the NW Gulf on Mon night, then track southeastward 

through Wed, dragging a strong cold front across the entire 

basin. Strong high pressure behind the front will induce gale 

force N to NE winds expanding across much of the northern and 

western Gulf Tue and Tue night, with the potential for gusts to 

storm force across central portions. Mariners are urged to 

exercise extreme caution across the basin, due to the expansive 

area of gale force winds and large area of seas 15 to 20 ft 

expected to accompany this next frontal system. 



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the 

coast of Liberia near 07N11W and continues southwestward to 

00N26W. The ITCZ extends from 00N26W to near 01N50W. Scattered 

moderate convection is from the equator to 03N between 30W and 

50W.



GULF OF MEXICO...



A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please, see 

the Special Features section for more information. 



As previously mentioned, a cold front has moved into the NW Gulf

and extends from central Louisiana to along the Texas-Mexico 

border. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are along 

the frontal boundary, particularly over southern Louisiana and 

the NE Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW winds follow the front, with 

seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are north N 

27N and east of the front to about 85W. Seas in this area range 

from 3 to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are noted

elsewhere ahead of the front, with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except 1 

to 3 ft across the offshore waters of W Florida, including the 

Big Bend area. 



For the forecast, please refer to the Special Features section 

for a detailed information about the forecast. Mariners are 

urged to exercise caution across the basin, including outside of 

the gale condition affected zones, due to the expansive area of 

strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas 

associated with the passage of two consecutive strong frontal 

systems. 

 

CARIBBEAN SEA...



Patches of low-level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are

likely producing isolated to scattered passing showers. The 

pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic

and the Colombian low supports moderate to fresh trades across 

the eastern and central Caribbean, as detected by scatterometer 

data. Trades may pule to locally strong speeds off the south 

coast of Hispaniola and in the south-central Caribbean off the 

coast of Colombia. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the eastern and central

Caribbean, with locally 8 ft seas in the south-central Caribbean.

Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere in the NW Caribbean,

with 3 to 5 ft seas.



For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will prevail across most 

of the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic waters through this 

weekend, with locally strong winds developing each night offshore

of Colombia, and through the Atlantic Passages and downwind of 

Hispaniola. Easterly trade wind swell will produce rough seas 

through the Atlantic Passages through next week. A Gulf of Mexico

cold front will sink slowly southward across the Straits of 

Florida and Yucatan Channel Sun night and then stall and weaken 

across the far NW Caribbean and western Cuba Mon through Tue. 

Fresh to strong E winds and building seas will dominate most of 

the basin Mon night through Wed as strong high pressure builds 

north of the cold front.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front is just off the NE Florida coast followed by 

another cold front that crosses near the Georgia/Florida border. 

The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong S 

winds ahead of these frontal boundaries covering the waters N of 

25N and W of 70W including the NW Bahamas. Seas are 6 to 9 ft 

within these winds. High pressures in the west-central Atlantic E

of Bermuda and west of the Canary Islands are divided by two 

cold fronts in the central subtropical Atlantic. One front 

extends from 31N36W to 24N47W where it becomes a surface trough, 

and the other front extends from 31N47W to 27N60W. Fresh to 

strong W to NW winds and seas up to 13 ft follow the second 

front, with the highest seas along 31N. Moderate to locally fresh

SW winds and seas to 10 ft are observed ahead of the first front

to about 34W. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft 

dominate the tropical Atlantic, with an area of fresh to strong 

NE to E winds covering the waters from 15N to 21N between 60W and

68W. These winds are affecting the Leeward Islands, the NE 

Caribbean, the regional waters of Puerto Rico, the US/UK Virgin 

Islands, and the Mona Passage. Seas are 6 to 8 ft this area, 

including the Atlantic passages. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or

weaker with 4 to 7 ft seas.



For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong S winds and rough 

seas are off the Florida coast to 70W and N of 25N, in advance of

a slow moving cold front that is offshore of the southeastern 

U.S. coast and northeast Florida. Low pressure along the front 

will track NE tonight and move well N of the forecast waters. 

Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere S of 23N through 

the period, with winds pulsing to strong speeds east of the 

Windward Islands at times. A cold front will move into the 

northwestern waters on Sun inducing fresh to strong SW winds 

ahead of the front and NW winds behind it N of 28N. The front 

will reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba by Mon evening then 

stall on Tue. A strong cold front is expected to move off the 

southeastern U.S. coast Tue night, and reach from near 31N73W to 

the Florida Keys by Wed morning. This front will be followed by 

strong to near-gale force north winds and building seas north of 

Cuba and west of 70W through Wed. 



$$ 

GR