****0000007261****
AXNT20 KNHC 190436

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Sun Jan 19 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0355 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the Florida

panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico. A reinforcing front has moved

offshore into the NW Gulf waters. Northerly winds behind the front

will gradually increase tonight, becoming strong by early Sun as 

the front reaches from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, 

Mexico. Strong high pressure over the central U.S. will build 

across the basin behind the progressing front on Sun to produce a 

brief period of gale force winds Sun afternoon in the western Gulf

waters offshore of Tampico and Veracruz. The front is expected to

stall across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida on Mon 

and gradually dissipate through Tue. Low pressure is expected to 

form over the NW Gulf on Mon night, then track southeastward 

through Wed, dragging a strong cold front across the entire basin.

Strong high pressure behind the front will induce gale force 

north to northeast winds expanding across much of the northern and

western Gulf Tue and Tue night, with the potential for gusts to 

storm force across portions of the central Gulf. Mariners are 

urged to exercise extreme caution across the basin, due to the 

expansive area of gale force winds and large area of very rough to

high seas expected to accompany this next frontal system



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic waters through the coast 

of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 05N22W. The 

ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 02N35W and to 00N50W. Scattered 

moderate convection is observed south of 05N and west of 41W.



GULF OF MEXICO...



A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please, see 

the Special Features section for more information. 



The cold front extending from the Florida panhandle to Tampico,

Mexico is producing scattered showers over the NE Gulf waters. Dry

conditions are noted elsewhere. A strong ridge over the central

United States is forcing fresh to strong northerly winds behind

the cold front, especially west of 90W. Seas in these waters are

5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds are found behind the front

and east of 90W, while similar strength but S-SW winds are noted

south of the front and east of 90W. Seas in the area described are

3-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate

seas prevail.



For the forecast, please refer to the Special Features section 

for a detailed information about the forecast. Mariners are urged 

to exercise caution across the basin, including outside of the 

gale condition affected zones, due to the expansive area of strong

to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas associated 

with the passage of two consecutive strong frontal systems. 

 

CARIBBEAN SEA...



Patches of low-level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are

likely producing isolated to scattered passing showers, especially

in the eastern Caribbean. The pressure gradient between high 

pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low supports 

fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the eastern and 

central Caribbean, as depicted by scatterometer data. However,

near gale-force NE-E winds are likely occurring off NW Colombia. 

Seas are 7-11 ft in the eastern and central Caribbean, with 

the highest seas occurring off Colombia. Moderate to locally 

fresh E-SE winds are evident in the rest of the basin, along with 

slight to moderate seas.



For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will prevail 

across most of the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic waters into the

upcoming week, with locally strong winds developing each night 

offshore of Colombia, and through the Atlantic Passages and 

downwind of Hispaniola. Easterly trade wind swell will produce 

rough seas through the Atlantic Passages through the upcoming 

week. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will sink slowly southward 

across the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel Sun night and 

then stall and weaken across the far northwestern Caribbean and 

western Cuba Mon through Tue. Fresh to strong east winds and 

building seas will dominate most of the basin Mon night through 

Wed as strong high pressure builds north of the cold front.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front extends from a low pressure off Cape Hatteras to the

NW Bahamas and a few showers are seen ahead of the frontal

boundary and north of 30N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass

captured fresh to locally near gale-force southerly winds ahead of

the front to 60W and north of 24N. Seas of 6-10 ft are noted in

these waters. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas

of 5-8 ft are noted behind the frontal boundary. High pressure

north of the area dominates the remainder of the SW North

Atlantic, forcing moderate to locally strong easterly winds and

seas of 6-9 ft, especially west of 60W.



A cold front extends from a low pressure near the Azores to

22N52W, followed by a surface trough to the Leeward Islands. Fresh

to strong SW-NW winds are occurring north of 29N and between 25W

and 45W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence

of a broad subtropical ridge positioned near the Canary Islands.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridging and lower

pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to strong easterly

trade winds and seas of 7-10 ft south of 22N. Elsewhere, moderate

or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.



For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong south winds 

and rough seas are N of 26N between 67W and 75W in advance of a 

slow moving cold front that extends from near 31N75W to just N of 

the NW Bahamas. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere S 

of 23N through the period, with winds pulsing to strong speeds 

east of the Windward Islands at times. A cold front will move into

the northwestern waters on Sun preceded and followed by fresh to 

strong winds N of 28N. The front will reach from near Bermuda to 

western Cuba by Mon evening then stall on Tue. A strong cold front

is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast Tue night, 

and reach from near 31N73W to the Florida Keys by Wed morning. 

This front will be followed by strong to near-gale force north 

winds and building seas north of Cuba and W of about 70W through 

Wed. Winds with frequent gusts to gale-force may occur N of 29N 

Tue night and Wed. 



$$

Delgado