****0000007421**** AXNT20 KNHC 191810 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Jan 19 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING AND GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... A cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend, to the central Gulf of Mexico, and to the SW corner of the Gulf close to 20N97W. The front continues northwestward, inland in Mexico. Surface high pressure covers the Gulf to the northwest of the cold front. Gale-force northerly winds are in the Gulf of Mexico from 22N to 28N from 95W westward. SW gale-force winds are to the east of Florida from 29N northward from 77W westward. Strong to near gale- force northerly winds are elsewhere from 93W westward. Fresh to strong NW winds are from 25N northward from the cold front northwestward. Moderate to fresh SW winds are from 24N to the cold front between Florida and the cold front. Rough seas are from 90W westward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia close to 06N11W, and it curves to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W, to 02N23W, to the Equator along 30W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate/isolated strong is from 05N southward between 36W and the coast of NE South America. The precipitation is in the area in which winds of faster speeds are approaching winds of a comparatively slower speed. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about the Gale-Force Wind Warning that was issued for the western sections of the Gulf of Mexico. All the information about the Gulf of Mexico is in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. A cold front extends from near Apalachicola, Florida southwestward to 25N90W and to inland Mexico just N of Veracruz. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will prevail N of the front through tonight as it moves SE and gradually stalls across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida Mon through Mon night. A brief period of northerly gales is expected offshore of Tampico and Veracruz this afternoon. Low pressure is expected to form over the NW Gulf on Mon night, then track southeastward through Wed, dragging a strong cold front across the entire basin. Strong high pressure behind the front will induce gale force north to northeast winds expanding across much of the northern and western Gulf Tue through Tue night, with the potential for gusts to storm force across portions of the west and central Gulf. Mariners are urged to exercise extreme caution across the basin, due to the expansive area of gale force winds and a large area of very rough to high seas that is expected to accompany this next frontal system. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds, and rough seas, are from 11N to 18N between 67W and 78W. Fresh NE to E winds, and rough seas in NE to E swell, are elsewhere from 18N southward between 64W and 80W. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds, and moderate seas, are from 67W eastward. Moderate to fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow, and slight seas, are from 80W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 19/1200 UTC, are: 0.33 in Trinidad; 0.16 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; and 0.08 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Fresh northeast to east winds will prevail across most of the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic waters into the upcoming week, with locally strong winds developing each night offshore of Colombia, and through the Atlantic Passages and downwind of Hispaniola. Easterly trade wind swell will produce rough seas through the Atlantic Passages through the upcoming week. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will sink slowly southward across the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel tonight, then stall and weaken across the far northwestern Caribbean and western Cuba Mon through Tue. Fresh to strong east winds and building seas will dominate most of the basin Mon night through Wed as strong high pressure builds north of the cold front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about the Gale-Force Wind Warning that was issued for the Gulf of Mexico cold front, and the gale-force winds that are just to the east of Florida. All the information about the Gulf of Mexico is in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 19/1200 UTC, are: 0.03 in Freeport in the Bahamas. A cold front passes through 31N70W, to 27N76W. Fresh to strong southerly winds, and mostly moderate to possibly some rough seas, are from 27N northward between 60W and 74W. Moderate to fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow is elsewhere between 60W and the Bahamas. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 60W westward. A cold front passes through 31N28W, to 25N40W, 22N53W. A surface trough continues from 22N53W, to 19N65W just to the NE of Puerto Rico. Rough seas are from 24N northward from 55W eastward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE winds are from the frontal boundary southward from 40W westward. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 23N southward to the monsoon trough/the ITCZ from 40W eastward. Moderate to fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow is from the frontal boundary northward between 40W and 60W. Moderate to fresh surface cyclonic wind flow is from 25N northward from 40W eastward. Fresh to locally strong south to southwest winds and rough seas prevail N of 27N between 65W and 80W in advance of a cold front across the NE Gulf of Mexico. This strong cold front will move into the northwestern waters late today, reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba by Mon evening then stall and weaken on Tue. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some strong, are expected to accompany this front through this evening. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere S of 23N through the period, with winds pulsing to strong speeds east of the Windward Islands at times. Another strong cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast Tue night, and reach from near 31N73W to the Florida Keys by Wed morning. This front will be followed by strong to near-gale force north winds and building seas north of Cuba and W of about 70W through Wed. Winds with frequent gusts to gale-force may occur N of 29N W of 77W Tue night. $$ mt/ss