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AXNT20 KNHC 192342

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Mon Jan 20 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2300 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Gale Warning: Satellite derived wind data depicted 

strong to gale force SW winds with rough seas off NE Florida 

ahead of a cold front that is currently moving across the 

Florida Peninsula. This cold front will move into the Atlantic 

waters this evening, and the winds will diminish below gale 

force. Then, fresh to locally strong south to southwest winds 

and rough seas will prevail N of 27N between 65W and 80W ahead 

of the cold front, forecast to reach from near Bermuda to 

western Cuba by Mon evening then stall and weaken on Tue. 



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near 

Tampa Bay, Florida southwestward to the central Bay of Campeche.

Scatterometer data around 15Z on Sun showed gale force winds 

over the NW and west-central Gulf, including the Tampico area. 

Strong to near gale force northerly winds will prevail N of the 

front through tonight as it moves SE and gradually stalls across 

the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida Mon and Mon night. A 

brief period of northerly gales offshore of Tampico and Veracruz 

is expected to end this evening. Low pressure will form over the

NW Gulf on Mon night, then track southeastward through Wed, 

dragging a strong cold front across the entire basin. Strong high

pressure behind the front will induce gale force north to northeast

winds early Tue becoming strong gales and expanding across much 

of the northern and western Gulf Tue afternoon through early Wed,

with the potential for gusts to storm force across portions of 

the west and central Gulf. Mariners are urged to exercise extreme

caution across the basin, due to the expansive area of gale 

force winds and a large area of very rough to high seas that is 

expected to accompany this next frontal system. 



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic waters through the 

coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 

04N18W. The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to near 00N50W. Scattered 

moderate convection is seen from the Equator to 04N between 38W 

and 50W. 



GULF OF MEXICO...



A Gale Warning is in effect for some sections of the western 

Gulf of Mexico. Please see the Special Features section for more 

information. 



As previously mentioned, a cold front extends from near Tampa 

Bay, Florida southwestward to the central Bay of Campeche. A band

of showers, with embedded thunderstorms, is just ahead of the 

front and now is affecting the south-central Florida Peninsula, 

the SE Gulf and NE Yucatan Peninsula. Strong high pressure, in

the wake of the front, supports strong to near gale force northerly

winds across most of the Gulf region. Rough seas are associated 

with these winds, with the highest seas near 13 ft over the SW

Gulf. 



For the forecast, please refer to the Special Features section 

for a detailed information about the forecast. Mariners are urged

to exercise caution across the basin, including outside of the 

gale condition affected zones due to the expansive area of strong

to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas associated

with the passage of two consecutive strong frontal systems. 

 

CARIBBEAN SEA...



Patches of low level clouds, with possible showers, are moving

across the Lesser Antilles into the eastern Caribbean. Scattered

showers and thunderstorms are developing in the vicinity of the 

Yucatan Channel ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf of 

Mexico. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the 

central Atlantic and the Colombian low supports fresh to strong 

trades over the central Caribbean. The strongest winds of 30 kt

are occurring near and just offshore the coast of Colombia. Buoy

42058 located in the central Caribbean is reporting 9 ft. Seas 

of 5 to 8 ft are noted across the remainder of the eastern and 

central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh east to southeast 

winds along with slight to moderate seas exist over the NW

Caribbean. 



For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will prevail 

across most of the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic waters into 

early this week, with locally strong winds developing each night

offshore of Colombia, and through the Atlantic Passages and 

downwind of Hispaniola. Easterly trade wind swell will produce 

rough seas through the Atlantic Passages through the upcoming 

week. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will sink slowly southward 

across the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel tonight, then 

stall and weaken across the far northwestern Caribbean and 

western Cuba Mon through Tue. Fresh to strong east winds and 

building seas will dominate most of the basin Mon night through 

early Wed as strong high pressure builds north of the cold front.

The next strong cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Wed 

afternoon, then stall and dissipate Wed night.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front is about to move off NE Florida. Please, see the

Special Features section for more details. Another cold front  

extends from 31N26W to 22N50W. A trough stretches from this point

to near Puerto Rico. A band of mainly low clouds, with possible

showers, is related to the front. High pressure dominates the

central Atlantic. Its associated ridge extends toward the Turks

and Caicos Islands. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under 

the influence of a broad subtropical ridge positioned near the 

Canary Islands. The pressure gradient between the subtropical 

ridging and comparatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is 

allowing for fresh to strong trades along with seas of 8 to 10 ft

S of about 22N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate

seas are present.



For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong south to 

southwest winds and rough seas prevail N of 27N between 65W and 

80W in advance of a cold front across N Florida. This cold front 

will move into the northwestern waters this evening, reach from 

near Bermuda to western Cuba by Mon evening then stall and weaken

on Tue. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some 

strong, are expected to accompany this front through late this 

evening. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere S of 23N

through the period, with winds pulsing to strong speeds east of 

the Windward Islands at times. Another strong cold front is 

expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast Tue evening, and

reach from near 31N72W to the Florida Keys by Wed morning, then 

become aligned E to W along 27N and weaken quickly through early 

Thu. This front will be followed by strong to minimal gale force 

north winds and high seas north of 24N and W of about 70W through

midday Wed.



$$

GR