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AXNT20 KNHC 200418

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Mon Jan 20 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0350 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is moving through the 

southeast Gulf. Gale force winds following the front off Veracruz 

in the southwest Gulf of Mexico have diminished, although rough 

seas persist over the southwest Gulf. Looking ahead, gale force 

winds will follow a second front expected to move into the 

northwest Gulf late Mon night. The second front will reach from 

Tampa Bay to the central Gulf to near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by 

late Tue, followed by gale force winds, with possible strong gales

off Veracruz, and rough to very rough seas. Winds and seas will 

start to diminish Tue night as the front exits the southeast Gulf 

through early Wed. 



Mariners are urged to exercise extreme caution across the basin 

due to the expansive area of gale force winds and a large area of 

very rough to high seas that is expected to accompany this next 

frontal system. 



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic waters through the 

coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 

03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to near 02S35W. Scattered 

moderate convection is seen from the Equator to 05N between 15W 

and 30W. 



GULF OF MEXICO...



A Gale Warning is in effect for some sections of the western 

Gulf of Mexico. Please see the Special Features section for more 

information. 



A cold front extends from near Chokoloskee, Florida southwestward

to the Merida, Mexico. Strong to near-gale force winds and 8 to 14 ft seas

follow the front, with the highest winds and seas over the far southwest

Gulf near the coast of Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms

are active along and just ahead the frontal boundary, from the 

Florida Keys to northeastern Yucatan. 



For the forecast, the strong to near gale force northerly winds 

will prevail N of the front overnight tonight as it moves SE and 

gradually stalls across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida

Mon through Mon night. Low pressure will form over the NW Gulf on

Mon night, then track southeastward through Wed, dragging a 

strong cold front across the entire basin. Strong high pressure 

behind the front will induce gale force north to northeast winds 

early Tue becoming strong gales and expanding across much of the 

northern and western Gulf Tue afternoon through early Wed, with 

the potential for gusts to storm force across portions of the west

and central Gulf.

 

CARIBBEAN SEA...



A few showers and thunderstorms are active across the Yucatan

Channel, ahead of a slow moving cold front over the southeast and

south-central Gulf of Mexico. A few fast moving showers are noted

in the trade wind flow over the Windward Islands. No other shower

or thunderstorms activity is noted across the Caribbean at this 

time. Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds and 7 to 8 ft seas are

evident between northeast Colombia and Hispaniola across the

central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft

seas are noted elsewhere, except for gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft

seas over the northwest Caribbean.



For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will prevail 

across most of the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic waters into 

the upcoming week, with locally strong winds developing each night

offshore of Colombia, and through the Atlantic Passages and 

downwind of Hispaniola. Easterly trade wind swell will produce 

rough seas through the Atlantic Passages through the upcoming 

week. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will sink slowly southward 

across the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel tonight, then 

stall and weaken across the far northwestern Caribbean and western

Cuba Mon through Tue. Fresh to strong east winds and building 

seas will dominate most of the basin Mon night through early Wed 

as strong high pressure builds north of the cold front. The next 

strong cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Wed afternoon, 

then stall and dissipate Wed night. 



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front extends over the offshore waters of northeast 

Florida from 30N77W to near Jupiter Inlet, Florida. Scattered 

showers and thunderstorms are active along the front. While gale-

force winds have subside, strong to near-gale force winds and 8 to

10 ft seas are noted both ahead of and following the front across

the waters north of 28N and west of 65W. Farther east, another 

front associated with a complex low pressure over the Azores 

reaches from 31N25W to 26N35W to 22N50W. Moderate to fresh N to NE

winds and 8 to 12 ft seas follow this front east of 55W. A 

surface ridge is sandwiched in between these fronts, reaching from

the north- central Atlantic to the central Bahamas, supporting 

gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas along the ridge 

axis. Farther south, fresh to strong NE to E trade winds and 8 to 

10 ft seas persist over the tropical Atlantic.



For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near

Bermuda to western Cuba by Mon evening then stall and weaken on 

Tue. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some strong,

are expected to accompany this front through late this evening. 

Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere S of 23N through 

the period, with winds pulsing to strong speeds east of the 

Windward Islands at times. Another strong cold front is expected 

to move off the southeastern U.S. coast Tue evening, and reach 

from near 31N72W to the Florida Keys by Wed morning, then become 

aligned E to W along 27N and weaken quickly through early Thu. 

This front will be followed by strong to minimal gale force north 

winds and high seas north of 24N and W of about 70W through midday

Wed. 



$$

Christensen