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AXNT20 KNHC 201143

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Mon Jan 20 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1130 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure is forecast to develop 

off the southeastern United States and northeast Florida coasts 

Tue and Tue night. A tight gradient between the low pressure and 

strong high pressure to the north will induce near gale north to 

northeast winds with frequent gusts to gale-force over the waters

east of northeast Florida north of about 28N between 74W and the 

Florida coast, from Tue into early on Wed. Seas are expected to 

build to the range of about 9 to 14 ft with these winds. These 

conditions are forecast to subside during Wed as the low pressure 

lifts to the northeast forcing a cold front southeastward to along

a line from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and to the Straits of 

Florida by Wed afternoon.



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Low pressure will form over the NW 

Gulf tonight, then track southeastward through Wed with an

attendant cold front. The front will reach from near from

Tampa Bay to the central Gulf to near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by 

early Tue evening. Strong high pressure behind the front will 

induce gale force north to northeast winds early Tue becoming 

strong gales and expanding across much of the northern and western

Gulf Tue afternoon through early Wed, with the potential for 

gusts to storm force across portions of the west and central Gulf.

High seas up to around 24 ft are forecast in the SW Gulf on Wed,

with seas 12 ft or greater expected for the majority the basin.

Conditions subside later on Wed as the front stalls just 

southeast of the basin. 



Mariners are urged to exercise extreme caution across the basin 

due to the expansive area of gale force winds and a large area of 

very rough to high seas that is expected to accompany this next 

frontal system. 



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic waters through the 

coast of Liberia near 05N10W and continues west-northwestward

to 06N18W, then southwestward to 02N30W and to near 02S445W. 

Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ 

between 22W and 25W, and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 26W and 

30W. Similar activity is south of the ITCZ between 17W and 24W,

and from 01S to 04N between 40W and 45W.



GULF OF MEXICO...



A Gale Warning is in effect for some sections of the central and 

western Gulf of Mexico. Please see the Special Features section 

for more information. 



A cold front is along a position from the Straits of Florida to 

near the northeast part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to strong

north to northeast winds are over most of the basin as noted by 

overnight ASCAT satellite data passes and in buoy observations 

throughout, with the exception of strong to near gale north to 

northeast winds confined to south of 25N between 86W and 94W. 

Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are offshore Veracruz. 

Seas of 8 to 11 ft are across the basin, except for higher seas of

10 to 12 ft in north swell from 21N to 23N between 94W and 96W. 

Satellite imagery shows patches of mostly light along with a few 

showers confined to the far southeastern Gulf and Straits of 

Florida, reaching to western Cuba and the northern Yucatan 

Peninsula.



For the forecast, the fresh to strong north to northeast winds

diminish to mostly fresh speeds in the eastern and far south-

central Gulf through early Tue. Low pressure will form over the 

NW Gulf tonight, then track southeastward through Wed dragging a 

strong cold front across the entire basin. Strong high pressure 

behind the front will induce gale force north to northeast winds 

early Tue becoming strong gales and expanding across much of the 

northern and western Gulf Tue afternoon through early Wed, with 

the potential for gusts to storm force across portions of the 

west and central Gulf.

 

CARIBBEAN SEA...



A slow moving cold front extends from the Straits of Florida 

southwestward to near the northeast part of the Yucatan Peninsula.

A few patches of light rain along with a few showers are over the

northern Yucatan Channel as well as over western Cuba and the 

northern Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers within the trade wind

flow are over the western part of the sea from 11N to 16N between

75W and to near the coast of Central America, and also over the 

eastern Caribbean Sea from 11N to 18N. Overnight ASCAT satellite

data passes depicted fresh to strong northeast to east winds 

over most of the central part of the sea, and over some sections 

of the eastern Caribbean. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are from 11N to 18N

between 71W and 80W, except for higher seas of 8 to 11 ft offshore 

of Colombia north to near 13N. Moderate to fresh northeast to

east winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas are elsewhere, with the 

exception of for gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft seas north 

17N and west of 83W.



For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will prevail 

across most of the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic waters 

through the week, with locally strong to near gale winds 

developing each night offshore of Colombia through midweek. 

Easterly trade wind swell will produce rough seas through the 

Atlantic Passages through the upcoming week. A Gulf of Mexico cold

front will move slowly southward across the Straits of Florida 

and Yucatan Channel this morning, then stall afterwards and weaken

across the far northwestern Caribbean and western Cuba through 

Tue. Fresh to strong east winds and building seas will dominate 

most of the basin tonight through early Wed as strong high 

pressure builds north of the cold front. The next strong cold 

front will reach the Yucatan Channel Wed afternoon, then stall and

dissipate Wed night. 



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A new Gale Warning is in effect for waters offshore northeast

north of north of about 28N between 74W and the Florida coast 

from Tue into early on Wed.



A cold front extends from near 31N75W to the Straits of Florida.

Satellite imagery shows patches of light to moderate rain 

over the waters north of 27N between 71W and 80W. Fresh to 

strong northwest winds are west of the front north of 27N while

fresh to strong southwest winds are east of the front to near 

65W and north of 29N. Seas of 8 to 10 ft seas are present

both ahead of and behind the front. Farther east, another front 

associated with a complex low pressure that is well north

of the region near the Azores extends south-southwestward to 

31N20W, continuing to 25N30W and to near 21N49W. Moderate to fresh

north to northeast winds along with seas of 8 to 12 ft seas 

follow this front east of 55W. The exception is over the extreme 

eastern part of the area where higher seas of 12 to 16 ft in 

northwest are north of 30N and east of 40W.



Otherwise, a ride stretches southwestward into the central part 

of the area near 31N50W, and continues to the central Bahamas.

The associated gradient is allowing for generally gentle to 

moderate east to southeast winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft 

to exist near the ridge axis. Farther south, fresh to strong

trades and 8 to 10 ft seas persist over a good portion of 

the tropical Atlantic. These seas where generated by east 

swell resulting from the fresh to strong winds that have been

in existence for the past few days.



For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 

reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba by Mon evening then stall 

and weaken on Tue. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms,

some strong, are expected to accompany this front through late 

this evening. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere S of

23N through the period, with winds pulsing to strong speeds east 

of the Windward Islands at times. Another strong cold front is 

expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast Tue evening, and 

reach from near 31N72W to the Florida Keys by Wed morning, then 

become aligned E to W along 27N and weaken quickly through early 

Thu. This front will be followed by strong to minimal gale force 

north winds and high seas north of 24N and W of about 70W through 

midday Wed. In the long term, low pressure is expected to develop

offshore the southeastern U.S. Thu into Thu night, with a 

trailing cold front reaching to central Cuba. The low is expected 

to move well north of the area Fri, with the cold front reaching 

from near 31N70W to eastern Cuba by Fri night. Fresh to strong 

northwest winds are expected in the wake of tho front.



$$

Aguirre