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AXNT20 KNHC 202311

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Tue Jan 21 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2100 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A secondary-surge of very strong high

pressure will build through the Gulf of Mexico Tue, leading to an

expansive area of gale force NE winds throughout much of the basin

basin Tue and Tue night, before the high pressure settles overhead

and continues improve into Wed. Very rough seas will accompany 

the gales, with seas exceeding 20 ft in parts of the SW Gulf of

Mexico Tue night. 



Atlantic Gale Warning: The cold front marking the leading edge of

the aforementioned strong high pressure will move offshore Florida

later on Tue, with northerly gales in its wake N of the Bahamas 

Tue night. These gales and associated very rough seas will prevail

into Wed before conditions improve for late week.  



Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is 

issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia

near 07N11W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues to 04N23W to 03N30W.

Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 25W

and 30W. 



GULF OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section above for information

on widespread gale conditions expected tonight through Tue. 



The initial cold front has moved SE of the basin this afternoon.

This has left the basin under building high pressure and moderate

to fresh mainly NE winds. Locally strong NE winds are ongoing in

the Yucatan Channel, and strong easterly return flow is developing

in the northwest Gulf ahead of the next storm system forming over

Texas. Scattered moderate convection is developing offshore the

Texas coast. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft, although rough seas are

observed where the strong winds are ongoing. 



For the forecast, low pressure will form over the NW Gulf 

tonight, then track southeastward through Wed, dragging a strong 

cold front across the entire basin. Strong high pressure behind 

the front will induce gale-force N to NE winds tonight into early 

Tue, likely becoming strong gales and expanding across much of the

northern and western Gulf Tue afternoon through early Wed, with 

the potential for gusts to storm force across portions of the west

and central Gulf. The front is forecast to exit the basin by Wed 

morning with winds diminishing in the afternoon hours. Mariners 

are urged to exercise extreme caution across the basin due to the 

expansive area of gale-force winds and a large area of very rough 

to high seas that is expected to accompany this next frontal 

system. Looking ahead, a surface trough is forecast to develop 

along the E Mexican offshore waters by Thu evening with strong 

winds possibly reaching gale-force by Fri morning. Gales off 

Veracruz will diminish by Fri evening. 



CARIBBEAN SEA...



A cold front extends from near Havana, Cuba, to near Cancun,

Mexico. Strong NE winds and rough seas are N of the front.

Otherwise, a tradewind regime dominates, with moderate to fresh NE

to E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft. A broad area of strong E winds

encompasses the central basin, where the pressure gradient between

subtropical ridging and the lower pressure of the deep tropics is

tightest. No significant convection is present in the basin this

evening. 



For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern 

and central Caribbean, and Tropical Atlantic waters will diminish 

to moderate to locally fresh trades over the Tropical Atlantic 

waters and the eastern Caribbean on Wed. Fresh to strong winds 

will prevail through Sat night in the central and SW Caribbean, 

reaching near gale to gale-force at night offshore of Colombia 

through midweek. Easterly trade wind swell will produce rough seas

through the Atlantic Passages through the week. The tail of a 

cold front extending from the Straits of Florida to W Cuba to the 

Yucatan Channel will stall later today and weaken across the far 

NW Caribbean and W Cuba through Tue. The next strong cold front 

will reach the Yucatan Channel Wed morning, stall from W Cuba to 

Belize Wed afternoon, before dissipating Wed night into Thu.  



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the Special Features section above for information

on a Gale Warning for Atlantic waters N of the Bahamas Tue and

Wed. 



A cold front extends from near Bermuda to near Havana, Cuba.

Scattered moderate convection is along and within 60 nm E of this

boundary N of 25N. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are behind

the front, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Farther E, another weaken cold

front extends from just W of the Canary Islands to around 22N48W.

Fresh to strong N winds are behind this front, with a broad area

of 8 to 14 ft seas. To the S of 20N, NE to E trades dominate, at

fresh magnitude to the W of 30W, and moderate speeds to the E.

Seas in the tradewind belt are 6 to 9 ft.



For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong trades in the 

far southern waters east of the Bahamas will diminish on Wed ahead

of the next cold front, which is expected to move off the SE U.S.

coast Tue evening. The front will reach from near 31N72W to the 

Florida Keys by Wed morning, from 31N61W to the southern Bahamas 

Thu morning where it will stall and weaken quickly through Thu 

evening. This front will be followed by strong to minimal gale 

force north winds and high seas north of 24N and W of about 70W 

through midday Wed. In the long term, low pressure is expected to 

develop offshore the SE U.S. Thu into Thu evening, with a trailing

cold front reaching to central Cuba. The low is expected to move 

well north of the area Fri, with the cold front reaching from near

31N70W to eastern Cuba by Fri evening, and from Bermuda to the 

Windward Passage Sat morning. Fresh to strong NW winds are 

expected in the wake of tho front. 



$$

Konarik