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AXNT20 KNHC 210600

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Tue Jan 21 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0600 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: 

A 1018 mb low is developing near Corpus Christi, Texas. This low

is expected to intensify and become a frontal system while

gradually moving east-southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico

Tuesday and Tuesday night. In response, N to NE winds north of the

low at the northwestern Gulf will reach gale-force after midnight

tonight. By mid Tuesday morning, NW to N winds behind a cold front

related to this low will also occur across the south-central Gulf

and western Bay of Campeche. As this low and cold front push

further eastward, gale to strong-gale NW to NE winds with gusts to

storm-force will spread to the central Gulf and western Bay of 

Campeche by Tuesday evening. Seas under the strongest winds are 

going to peak at 18 to 22 ft.



Atlantic Gale Warning: 

A new cold front is forecasted to form across the southeastern

U.S. on Tuesday morning, and then move eastward into the western

Atlantic on Tuesday afternoon. Anticipate NW to N winds behind

this front to reach strong to gale-force by Tuesday evening, off

the coast of northeastern Florida and southern Georgia. These

winds will shift eastward along with the cold front across the

western Atlantic through Wednesday morning. Seas under the

strongest winds are going to peak between 12 and 14 ft.



For both Gale Warnings, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas 

and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane 

Center at websites:

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the northern coast of 

Guinea to 06N19W. An ITCZ continues westward from 06N19W to 

04N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the 

monsoon trough from 04N to 06N between 11W and 18W. Similar 

convection is seen near and up to 150 nm north of the ITCZ.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.



A surface trough meanders southward from a 1018 mb low near 

Corpus Christi, Texas to just east of Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered

showers are present near these features across the western edge of

the Gulf. Strong SW winds at mid levels are streaming thick 

cirrus across the northern half of the Gulf. Strong to near-gale

NE to E winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are evident at the

northwestern Gulf. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft

seas dominate the central Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. 

Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are seen across 

the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to

moderate NW to S to SE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are present at 

the rest of the Gulf, including the western Bay of Campeche.



For the forecast, the cold front mentioned in the Special Features

section is forecast to exit the basin by Wed morning with winds 

diminishing in the afternoon hours. Mariners are urged to exercise

extreme caution across the basin due to the expansive area of 

gale to strong-gale winds and a large area of high to very high 

seas in the area. Looking ahead, a surface trough is forecast to 

develop along the eastern Mexican offshore waters by Thu evening 

with strong winds possibly reaching gale-force by Fri morning. 

Gales off Veracruz will diminish by Fri evening.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A slow-moving cold front extends from near Havana, Cuba across the

Yucatan Channel to south of Cozumel, Mexico. Scattered showers 

are found near the front over the Yucatan Channel. A surface 

trough is triggering widely scattered showers at the Gulf of 

Honduras. Strong to near-gale ENE winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft are

occurring at the south-central basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E 

winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are seen over the north-central and 

eastern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft 

are noted at the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to E 

winds with 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, 

including the Gulf of Honduras.



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will 

prevail across the eastern half of the basin through midweek. 

Winds could reach near-gale force in the vicinity of the northern 

coast of Colombia tonight. A cold front will enter the

northwestern basin on Wed, bringing near-gale force NW winds and 

rough seas to the area. These conditions will diminish quickly as 

the front weakens on Wed night. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.



A slow-moving cold front extends southwestward from near Bermuda 

across 31N66W to beyond Havana, Cuba. Scattered showers are found

near and up to 120 nm northwest of this feature. Another cold

front curves southwestward from near Madeira across 31N16W to

21N35W, then continues westward as a shear line to 19N52W.

Scattered showers are happening near and up to 100 nm southeast of

the front. Patchy showers are seen up to 50 nm along either side

of the shear line. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for

additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.



A large dome of 1032 mb high near 32N47W is supporting gentle to

moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 24N between

55W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Farther east, moderate to 

fresh NNE to NE winds and 7 to 13 ft seas in residual moderate to 

large northerly swell exist north of 20N between 35W and 55W. For 

the tropical Atlantic from 09N to 24N between 35N/55W and the 

Lesser Antilles/southeast Bahamas, moderate to strong ENE winds 

and seas at 6 to 9 ft are present. Gentle to moderate NE to E 

winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the

remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W.



For the forecast W of 55W, the slow-moving cold front will stall 

over western Cuba before weakening on Tue. Fresh winds in the far

southern waters east of the Bahamas will diminish on Wed ahead of

the next cold front, which is expected to move off the

southeastern U.S. coast Tue evening. The front will reach from 

near 31N72W to the Florida Keys by Wed morning, from 31N61W to the

southern Bahamas Thu morning where it will stall and weaken 

quickly through Thu evening. This front will be followed by strong

to minimal gale-force N winds and rough seas north of 24N and west 

of 70W through midday Wed. In the long term, low pressure is 

expected to develop offshore the southeastern U.S. Thu into Thu 

evening, with a trailing cold front reaching to central Cuba. The 

low is expected to move well north of the area Fri, with the cold 

front reaching from near 31N70W to eastern Cuba by Fri evening, 

and from Bermuda to the Windward Passage Sat morning. Fresh to 

strong NW winds are expected in the wake of this front. 



$$



Chan