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AXNT20 KNHC 211805

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Tue Jan 21 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1800 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: 

A 1015 mb low is analyzed near 26N94W. This low is expected to

gradually move east-southeastward across the Gulf today. N to NE

winds north of the low are already exceeding gale-force over the N

and W Gulf, with areas of strong gales extending out roughly 220

nm to the north and west of the low. A recent scatterometer pass

also indicated an area of storm-force winds offshore Tampico from

22N to 23.5N and west of 96W. As this low and attendant cold front

push farther eastward, gale-force NW to NE winds with gusts to

storm-force will spread to the central Gulf and western Bay of 

Campeche by this evening. Seas under the strongest winds will peak

at 18 to 23 ft, mainly across areas S of 25N and W of 91W. 

Mariners are urged to exercise extreme caution across the basin 

due to the expansive area of gale-force winds and a large area of 

very rough to high seas in the area. 



W Atlantic Gale Warning: 

A new cold front is forecast to form across the southeastern U.S.

later today, and then move eastward into the western Atlantic this

afternoon. NW to N winds behind this front will reach strong to

gale-force by this evening off the coast of northeastern Florida

and southern Georgia. These winds will shift eastward along with

the cold front across the western Atlantic through Wednesday

morning. Seas under the strongest winds will peak between 12 and 

15 ft.



Central and Eastern Atlantic Large Swell: A 990mb low near 39N18W

extends a cold front into the discussion waters, entering the 

region near 31N12W and extending to 20N35W. The cold front then 

continues westward as a shear line to 18N53W. The pressure 

gradient between this low and a 1032 mb high near 32N48W is 

supporting moderate to fresh, locally strong N to NW winds N of 

the cold front. Seas behind both the front and shear line and E of

50W are currently 12-20 ft in N swell, highest seas north of 28N 

between 20W and 30W. By Wednesday morning, this area of large N 

swell will expand to cover areas E of 55W and N of 15N, while 

gradually lowering with seas of 12-16 ft anticipated. Seas will 

gradually subside below 12 ft across much of the region on 

Wednesday, with any remaining seas near or in excess of 12 ft 

confined to areas near the Canary Islands by Thursday morning. 

Seas of 12 ft or more will then diminish Thursday.



For more details on both Gale Warnings and the Atlantic Swell, 

please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued 

by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and continues 

to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues southwestward from 06N19W to 

03N36W. Scattered moderate convection associated with these

features is noted from 02N to 10N between the W coast of Africa

and 42W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section about the Gale 

Warning in effect.



Away from the area advertised in the Special Features section, 

showers continue across much of the northern Gulf in association 

with the low moving across the basin. Strong to near- gale force E

to NE winds are occurring across portions of the Gulf north and 

west of a line extending from Tampa Bay to the NE Yucatan 

Peninsula, with seas of 6-10 ft in this region. South and east of 

this line, E winds are moderate to fresh with seas of 4-7 ft.



For the forecast, a strong frontal system in the Gulf along with 

strong high pressure behind the front is inducing gale-force N to 

NE winds off the Texas and northern Mexico coast along with very 

rough to nearly high seas. These conditions will expand across 

much of the northern and western Gulf through tonight. There is a 

potential for gusts to storm force across portions of the west and

central Gulf tonight. The front is forecast to exit the basin by 

Wed morning with gale force winds ending by then. Strong winds 

will diminish later on Wed and rough seas subsiding by Thu. 

Mariners are urged to exercise extreme caution across the basin 

due to the expansive area of gale-force winds and a large area of 

very rough to high seas in the area. Looking ahead, a surface 

trough is forecast to develop along the E Mexican offshore waters 

by Thu evening with strong winds possibly reaching gale-force by 

Fri morning. Gales off Veracruz will diminish by Fri evening. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A stationary front extends across the NW Caribbean. A surface 

trough is triggering scattered showers across far western portions

of the basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 8-12 ft

are occurring across much of the central and eastern basin, with

localized areas of near-gale force winds occurring off the

Colombian coast. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and moderate seas are

occurring across the W Caribbean.



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will 

prevail across the eastern half of the basin through Thu morning. 

Fresh to strong winds will continue through the end of the week 

but confined to near the Colombia coast Thu through Sat. Winds 

could reach near- gale speeds each night near the coast of 

Colombia through Fri night. A cold front will enter the NW 

Caribbean on Wed, bringing near- gale force NW winds and rough 

seas to the area. These conditions will diminish quickly as the 

front weakens on Wed night. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the Special Features section about the Gale 

Warning in effect as well as the Large North Swell in the Central

and Eastern Atlantic. 



A stationary front extends southwestward from near Bermuda across

31N66W to 23N81W. A 1032 mb high near 32N48W is supporting gentle

to moderate NE to SE winds and moderate seas north of a line 

extending from 28N43W to 25N70W to the Florida Straits. South of 

this line, moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and 8 to 14 ft seas 

in residual moderate to large northerly swell exist north of 20N 

between 35W and 55W. Winds are locally strong along and near 20N 

per recent scatterometer data. For the tropical Atlantic from 09N 

to 20N between 35N/55W and the Lesser Antilles/southeast Bahamas, 

more widespread moderate to strong ENE winds and seas at 6 to 10 

ft are present. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds with 5 to 7 ft 

seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the 

Atlantic west of 35W. 



For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extending from 

31N66W to W Cuba. This front will merge with the next one, which 

is expected to move off the SE U.S. coast this evening. The new 

front will reach from near 31N72W to the Florida Keys by Wed 

morning, from 31N61W to central Cuba by Thu morning where it will 

stall and weaken quickly through Thu evening. This front will be 

followed by gale- force north winds and rough seas north of 24N 

and W of about 70W this evening through Wed morning. Another low 

pressure is expected to develop offshore the SE U.S. Thu into Thu 

evening, with a trailing cold front reaching to central Cuba. The 

low is expected to move well north of the area Fri, with the cold 

front reaching from near 31N73W to central Cuba by Fri evening, 

and from Bermuda to the Windward Passage Sat morning. Fresh to 

strong NW winds are expected in the wake of this front. 



$$

Adams