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AXNT20 KNHC 220619

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Wed Jan 22 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0600 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: 

A cold front extends southward from a 1013 mb low at the central

Gulf near 24N90W to the southeastern Bay of Campeche. Scattered

showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident near the low and 

up to 60 nm west of the front. These features will gradually 

weaken overnight, while moving east-southeastward toward Cuba and 

the Yucatan Channel through Wednesday. Strong-gale to storm-force 

NW to NE winds at the central Gulf and Bay of Campeche should 

decrease below storm-force after midnight but remain at strong to 

gale-force through early Wednesday morning. Seas will continue to 

peak at 20 to 24 ft before subsiding to between 16 and 19 ft by 

early Wednesday morning. Winds are expected to drop below gale- 

force by mid Wednesday morning but seas will remain at 12 to 16 ft

until early Wednesday evening, then subside below 12 ft. Mariners

are urged to exercise extreme caution across the basin due to the

expansive area of gale to storm-force winds and very rough to 

very high seas.



W Atlantic Gale Warning: 

A strong cold front extends southwestward from off the Carolina

coast across 31N78W and central Florida coast to the east-central

Gulf of Mexico. Strong to gale-force N winds and building seas at

9 to 13 ft are present behind this front, off the northeastern

Florida and southern Georgia coast. As this front merges with an

existing old frontal boundary and low pressure currently over and

east of southern Florida on Wednesday morning, it should begin to

weaken. In response, these winds will subside to between fresh and

strong by mid Wednesday morning. Seas should gradually drop below

12 ft by early Wednesday evening.



Carribbean Sea Gale Warning: 

A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from a large 1032 mb

high at the central Atlantic across 31N52W and eastern Cuba to the

western Caribbean Sea. Tight gradient between this ridge and lower

pressure over northwestern Colombia is sustaining strong to near-

gale ENE winds and 10 to 12 ft seas offshore from northwestern

Colombia near Barranquilla. These winds are anticipated to peak at

gale-force this evening through early Thursday morning.



Central and Eastern Atlantic Large Swell: 

A shear line reaches west-southwestward from 19N30W to east of the

Lesser Antilles at 16N567W. Persistent large northerly swell near

and north of this feature is maintaining seas at 11 to 12 ft east

of a line from 31N35W to 23N47W to 17N47W to 18N35W. Moderate to

strong NNE to ENE winds are seen in this area. This trend will 

continue thru Wednesday while the northerly swell slowly decays. 

By Wednesday evening, seas should subside below 12 ft.



For the above warnings and swell, please refer to the latest NWS 

High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National 

Hurricane Center at websites: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and

www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the northwestern Guinea

coast, and curves southwestward to 07N18W. An ITCZ continues 

west-southwestward from 07N18W across 03N30W to 04N42W. Scattered

moderate convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 03N 

to 06N between 10W and 18W. Widely scattered moderate convection

is present near and up to 130 nm north of the ITCZ.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section about the Storm

Warning in effect.



A strong cold front extends southwestward from off the Carolina

coast across 31N78W and central Florida coast to the east-central

Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers, possible mixing with snow

showers are occurring north of the front across the northeastern

Gulf. Scattered showers are seen near the front over the east-

central Gulf. Farther south, a warm front meanders eastward from

the low mentioned in the Special Features section to the Florida

Straits near 24N85W, then continues as a stationary front to a

1017 mb low near West Palm Beach, Florida. Scattered showers and

isolated thunderstorms are noted near this boundary across the

southeastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. 



Outside the Storm Warning area, fresh to strong N to NE winds and

seas of 9 to 19 ft in large N swell are dominating the west- 

central and northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 8 ft 

seas in moderate N swell prevail at the southeastern Gulf,

including the Yucatan Channel and Florida Straits.



For the forecast, as the low and cold front mentioned in the

Special Features section move farther south of the region, seas 

will drop below 8 ft by Thu. Looking ahead, a surface trough is 

forecast to develop along the eastern Mexican offshore waters by 

Thu evening with strong winds possibly reaching gale-force by Thu

night and continue through Fri evening. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section about an upcoming 

Gale Warning.



The broad surface ridge mentioned in the Special Features section

is sustaining a trade-wind regime over much of the basin.

Convergent trades are producing scattered showers at the Gulf of

Honduras. Besides the waters off northwestern Colombia, fresh to

locally strong ENE to E winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident 

across the central and eastern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds

and 4 to 7 ft seas exist at the southwestern basin. Gentle to

moderate E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail at the

northwestern basin, including the Yucatan Channel.



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and very rough seas will

persist at the south-central basin from mid Thursday morning 

through the weekend. A cold front will enter the northwestern 

basin early Wed morning, then stall and weaken through Wednesday

night before dissipating on Thursday. This will cause fresh with

locally strong winds and rough seas until late Thursday morning. 

Another front will enter the northwestern basin on Fri, bringing 

a similar scenario through the weekend.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the Special Features section about the Gale Warning

in effect, and large north Swell.



A warm front extends northeastward from a 1017 low near West Palm

Beach, Florida to beyond 31N70W. Together with the strong cold

front mentioned in the Special Features section, scattered showers

and patchy rain are seen east of Florida to 71W, including the

northwest Bahamas. Another cold front curves southwestward from

near the Canary Islands to 19N30W, then continues west-

southwestward as a shear line to east of the Lesser Antilles at

16N57W. Patchy showers are occurring up to 50 nm along either side

of this boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for

additional weather in the Atlantic Ocean.



Outside the areas of Gale Warnings and Large North Swell mentioned

in the Special Features section, a large 1032 mb high near 31N47W

is supporting gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SSE

winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft in mixed moderate to large swells

north of 23N between 47W and 60W, and north of 20N between 60W 

and 70W. Fresh to strong ENE to S winds and 7 to 11 ft seas exist

elsewhere north of 20N between 35W and the Florida/southern

Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 20N between

35W and the Lesser Antilles, fresh to strong NE to E winds and

seas at 8 to 10 ft are noted. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds

and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the

remainder of the Atlantic Ocean west of 35W.



For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned warm and cold front

will merge on Wed morning, then sink southeastward across the

Bahamas and western Atlantic. It will stall from 31N61W to near

central Cuba on Thu morning before dissipating Thu afternoon. Another

low pressure will develop off the southeast U.S. coast on Thu 

into Thu evening, and move well north of the area on Fri, with

another cold front reaching from near 31N73W to central Cuba by 

Fri evening, and from Bermuda to the Windward Passage Sat morning.

Fresh to strong NW winds are expected in the wake of this front 

Fri through the weekend.



$$



Chan