****0000007100****
AXNT20 KNHC 221017

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Wed Jan 22 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1000 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: 

A cold front extends southward from a 1013 mb low at the south-

central Gulf near 24N88W to the Yucatan Peninsula. A warm front is

analyzed from the low to 24N83W. These features will gradually

weaken today as they drift away from the area. Gale-force NW to NE

winds will prevail this morning across the southern Gulf,

including the Bay of Campeche. Seas will continue to peak at 20 to

23 ft before subsiding to between 16 and 19 ft this morning.

Although winds will drop below gale force this morning, seas will

remain at 12 to 16 ft until early this evening, then subside below

12 ft. Mariners are urged to exercise extreme caution across the

basin due to the expansive area of gale-force winds and very 

rough to very high seas.



W Atlantic Gale Warning: 

A strong cold front extends from 31N77W to 28N80W. Strong to gale-

force N winds and building seas at 8 to 14 ft are present behind

this front, off the northeastern Florida and southern Georgia

coast. As this front merges with an existing old frontal boundary

and low pressure currently over and east of southern Florida on

this morning, it should begin to weaken. In response, these winds

will subside to between fresh and strong later today. Seas should

gradually drop below 12 ft by early this evening.



Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: 

A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from a large 1032 mb

high at the central Atlantic across 31N52W and eastern Cuba to the

western Caribbean Sea. Tight gradient between this ridge and lower

pressure over northwestern Colombia is sustaining strong to near-

gale ENE winds and 10 to 12 ft seas offshore from northwestern

Colombia near Barranquilla. These winds are anticipated to peak at

gale-force this evening through early Thursday morning.



Central and Eastern Atlantic Large Swell: 

A shear line reaches west-southwestward from 21N25W to east of the

Lesser Antilles at 15N58W. Persistent large northerly swell near 

and north of this feature is maintaining seas at 12 to 16 ft 

mainly N of 17N and E of 48W. This trend will continue thru today 

while the northerly swell slowly decays. By this evening, seas 

should subside below 12 ft.



For more details on these features, please refer to the latest 

NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane 

Center, at the website: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N15W to 06N20W. The 

ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 05N39W. Scattered moderate 

convection is noted from 02N to 07N and E of 29W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the 

Gale Warning in effect.



Outside the Gale Warning area and associated features, fresh to 

strong N to NE winds and seas of 8 to 18 ft in large N swell are 

dominating the west-central and northern Gulf. Light to gentle 

winds and 4 to 8 ft seas in moderate N swell prevail at the 

southeastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and Florida 

Straits.



For the forecast, as the low and fronts mentioned in the Special 

Features section move farther south of the region, seas will drop 

below 8 ft by Thu. Looking ahead, a surface trough is forecast to 

develop along the eastern Mexican offshore waters by Thu evening 

with strong winds possibly reaching gale-force by Thu night and 

continue through Fri evening. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the  

upcoming Gale Warning.



The broad surface ridge mentioned in the Special Features section

is sustaining a trade-wind regime over much of the basin.

Convergent trades are producing scattered showers at the Gulf of

Honduras. Besides the waters off northwestern Colombia, fresh to 

strong ENE to E winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are evident across 

the central and eastern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and 4 

to 7 ft seas exist at the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate E

to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail at the northwestern 

basin, including the Yucatan Channel.



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean

will briefly become gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight.

Winds will be near-gale at night from Thu night through Sun 

night. Moderate to high seas are expected with these winds. A cold

front will enter the NW Caribbean this morning, bringing near-

gale NW winds and rough seas to the area. These conditions will 

improve quickly as the front weakens tonight, with the rough seas

subsiding on Thu. Another front will enter the NW basin on Fri, 

bringing another round of fresh to strong winds and rough seas 

through the weekend. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the 

Gale Warning in effect for the W Atlantic, and the large north 

swell event in the eastern Atlantic.



A warm front extends northeastward from a 1017 low near 27N79W to

31N73W. The combination of these features with the strong cold 

front mentioned in the Special Features section, scattered showers

and patchy rain are seen east of Florida to 71W, including the 

northwest Bahamas. To the E, a broad 1030 mb high pressure center

is located near 31N45W. A weakening cold front curves 

southwestward from near the Canary Islands to 19N27W, then 

continues west- southwestward as a shear line to east of the 

Lesser Antilles at 15N58W.



Outside the areas of Gale Warning and large north swell mentioned

in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh NE to SSE 

winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed moderate to large swells 

north of 21N between 45W and 76W. Fresh to strong ENE to S winds 

and 8 to 12 ft seas prevail south of 25N and E of 62W.



For the forecast W of 55W, the W Atlantic Gale-force NW winds and

rough seas will continue through this afternoon as the cold front

moves E. The front will stall and weaken by Fri. A low pressure 

will develop off the SE U.S. coast on Thu into Thu evening, with a

trailing cold front reaching central Cuba. The low will move well

north of the area on Fri, with the cold front reaching from near 

31N73W to central Cuba by Fri evening, and from Bermuda to the 

Windward Passage Sat morning. Fresh to strong NW winds are 

expected in the wake of this front Fri through the weekend.



$$

ERA