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AXNT20 KNHC 221741

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Wed Jan 22 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1630 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: 

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front has passed across the Gulf of Mexico

as of this morning, leaving its wake fresh to strong NE winds in 

the E and central Gulf. The next cold front, associated with low 

pressure moving through the southern United States, will enter the

NW Gulf Thu morning, promoting moderate to fresh N to NE winds 

across much of the basin. Winds will increase to strong speeds 

offshore of Veracruz and Tampico late Thu morning before reaching 

gale force early Fri, and rough to very rough seas will accompany 

the winds. Winds and seas will diminish on Sat in this area.



W Atlantic Gale Warning: 

A cold front from just W of Bermuda to the NW Bahamas to the

Florida Straits will progress eastward through Thu morning, with

strong to gale-force winds and very rough seas in its wake, mainly

N of 27N and W of 70W. The ASCAT scatterometer measured 35-40 kt

NNW winds near 30N81W just offshore of NE Florida at 1428 UTC this

morning. A SOFAR buoy recorded 13 ft seas near 30N79W at 1200 UTC.

Fresh to locally strong SW winds will occur ahead of the front 

today. Winds and seas will quickly subside tonight and Thu.



Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: 

Widespread fresh to strong trades and rough seas will occur across

the southwestern, central and eastern Caribbean into this weekend.

Winds will pulse to gale force offshore of Colombia tonight

through Thu morning, with winds reaching near-gale force in this

area each night Thu through this weekend. Seas will peak 12-14 ft

just northwest of Colombia tonight through Thu.



For more details on these features, please refer to the latest 

NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane 

Center, at the website: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



Eastern Atlantic Large Swell: 

Large long-period N swell is impacting our NE waters, east of 32W

and north of 22N. This 12-second period swell is forcing seas up

to 16 ft, along our N border and near 22W. A SOFAR buoy recorded

seas of 16 ft at 31N22W at 1200 UTC. The large swell will 

gradually diminish into Thu.



For more details on the large swell, please refer to the latest

MeteoFrance High Seas Forecast at the website:

wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Liberia near 

15N10W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 01S41W. 

Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-05N and east of 

23W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the 

Gale Warning in effect.



As of 1500 UTC, a cold front has passed across the Gulf of Mexico

as of this morning, leaving its wake fresh to strong NE winds in 

the E and central Gulf and strong to near gale NW winds in the SW 

Gulf. 12 ft seas cover the Gulf south of 27N with peak seas of 20

ft in the Bay of Campeche. No significant deep convection is

occurring.



For the forecast, strong to near-gale force winds occurring from 

the southwestern through eastern Gulf of Mexico will slowly 

diminish through tonight, in the wake of a cold front in the 

northwestern Caribbean. Very rough seas associated with these 

winds will subside Thu morning. The next cold front, associated 

with low pressure moving through the southern United States, will 

enter the northwestern Gulf Thu morning, promoting moderate to 

fresh N to NE winds across much of the basin. Winds will increase 

to strong speeds offshore of Veracruz and Tampico late Thu morning

before reaching gale force early Fri, and rough to very rough 

seas will accompany the winds. Winds and seas will diminish on Sat

in this area. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds are

expected this weekend across the basin as high pressure builds in

the south-central United States. Locally strong winds and rough 

seas will be possible offshore of Texas by early Sun.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the  

Gale Warning.



A cold front extends from W Cuba to the coast of Honduras. In its

wake, strong N winds and seas 8-12 ft are occurring in the Yucatan

Channel, with moderate to fresh winds and seas 4-8 ft farther

south. Broad surface ridging is supporting fresh to strong trades

over the E and central Caribbean with seas 8-12 ft. Isolated

moderate convection is occurring within 60 NM of the front.



For the forecast, widespread fresh to strong trades and rough 

seas will occur across the southwestern, central and eastern 

Caribbean into this weekend. Winds will pulse to gale force 

offshore of Colombia tonight through Thu morning, with winds 

reaching near- gale force in this area each night Thu through this

weekend. In addition, a long-period E swell will lead to rough 

seas through the Atlantic Passages through this weekend. 

Elsewhere, a cold front currently extending from western Cuba 

through northern Honduras will progress slowly southeastward into 

Thu before dissipating. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas 

of 8 to 14 ft will occur in the wake of the front, including 

through the Yucatan Channel, through tonight. Moderate to fresh NE

winds, pulsing to strong at times, and rough seas will occur 

through Fri as troughing prevails in the region. Looking ahead, 

widespread strong N to NE winds and building seas are slated to 

develop across the northwestern Caribbean by this weekend as a 

cold front moves through the Gulf of Mexico. Strong winds and 

building seas will expand into the central Caribbean through the 

weekend. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the 

Gale Warning in effect for the W Atlantic, and the large north 

swell event in the eastern Atlantic.



A 1032 mb high is centered at 31N43W with ridging extending

southeastward to 20N17W and west-southwestward to 25N75W. The

equatorward pressure gradient is forcing fresh to strong trades

from 07N-23N west of 30W with seas 8-12 ft. A strong cold front 

stretches from 31N73W over the N Bahamas to the Florida Straits as

of 1500 UTC. Strong to gale-force winds and very rough seas are

occurring in its wake, mainly N of 27N and W of 70W. Isolated

moderate convection is located within 60 NM of the front. Fresh 

to locally strong SW winds are occurring ahead of the front north 

of 29N. Finally, in the E Atlantic a trough extending from 31N14W 

to 23N18W is forcing fresh to strong N winds north of 25N and east

of 27W along with large to very large N swell, as described 

above. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas 5-8 ft.



For the forecast, the cold front will progress E through Thu 

morning, with strong to gale- force winds and very rough seas in 

its wake, mainly N of 27N and W of 70W. Fresh to locally strong SW

winds will occur ahead of the front today. Elsewhere, fresh to 

strong trades and rough seas will prevail through the weekend 

south of 23N. Low pressure is expected to form off the east coast 

of Florida on Thu, and moderate to fresh N to NW winds will occur 

to the north and west of the low through Fri morning. The low will

strengthen and move northeastward Fri into Sat, promoting 

widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds north of 22N and west of 

70W by Fri night. An associated cold front will trail the low 

pressure and move eastward this weekend, producing fresh to 

locally strong N to NE winds and rough seas in its wake. 



$$

Landsea