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AXNT20 KNHC 230618

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Thu Jan 23 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0500 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: 

A 1021 mb low and associated cold front are moving southeastward

across central Texas. This system is going to enter the

northwestern Gulf on Thursday morning, and west-central Gulf

Thursday afternoon. Fresh to strong NW to N winds behind the front

will reach gale-force at the west-central Gulf, and near Veracruz,

Mexico late Thursday night and Friday. Seas under the strongest

winds will reach 13 to 16 ft. Both winds and seas should gradually

subside late Friday afternoon through Friday night.



Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: 

Widespread fresh to strong trades and 8 to 11 ft seas are 

expected across the southwestern and south-central basin through 

this weekend. Winds will pulse to gale force offshore of Colombia 

tonight through Thursday morning, with winds reaching near-gale 

force in this area each night Thu through this weekend. Seas will 

peak at 10 to 13 ft during the strongest winds.



For the above Gale Warnings, please refer to the latest NWS High 

Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National 

Hurricane Center, at websites: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and

www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.



Eastern Atlantic Large Swell: 

Large long-period N swell is sustaining 12 to 14 ft seas in the

eastern Atlantic, east of 30W and north of 24N. Fresh to strong N

to NE winds are seen inside this area. The N swell will continue 

to decay overnight, which should allow seas to subside below 12 ft

on Friday.



For more details on the large swell, please refer to the latest

MeteoFrance High Seas Forecast at the website:

wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the central Guinea

coast, and reaches southwestward to 03N21W. An ITCZ continues 

from 03N21W to 01S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted

south of the monsoon trough from 01S to 03N between 10W and 20W.

Widely scattered moderate convection is seen up to 50 nm along

either side of the ITCZ. 



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section about an upcoming 

Gale Warning.



A surface trough reaches northwestward from the central Bay of

Campeche to near Corpus Christi, Texas. Scattered showers are

occurring across the west-central Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

Another surface trough at the east-central and southeastern Gulf 

is triggering patchy clouds and showers there. Otherwise, a

surface ridge stretches southward from a 1031 mb high near New

Orleans, Louisiana to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to

fresh NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in moderate N swell are

occurring at the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida 

Straits. Gentle NE to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are present 

across the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds with 

seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds occurring from the 

southwestern through eastern Gulf of Mexico will slowly diminish 

through tonight, in the wake of a front currently in the 

northwestern Caribbean. Rough seas associated with these winds 

will subside Thu morning. The next cold front, associated with low

pressure moving through the southern United States, will enter 

the northwestern Gulf Thu morning, promoting moderate to fresh N 

to NE winds across much of the basin. Winds will increase to 

strong offshore of Veracruz and Tampico late Thu morning before 

reaching gale-force early Fri, and rough to very rough seas will 

accompany the winds. Winds and seas will diminish by Sat in this 

area. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds are expected

across the basin this weekend as high pressure builds in the 

south-central United States. Strong SE winds and rough seas will 

be possible offshore of Texas late Sat into Sun.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the  

Gale Warning.



A stationary front extends southwestward from central Cuba 

through the Gulf of Honduras to northwestern Honduras. In its 

wake, fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft are 

occurring in the Yucatan Channel, and east of the Yucatan

Peninsula. Scattered showers and seen near and up to 150 nm

northwest of the front. A broad surface ridge extends 

southwestward from a 1030 mb high at the central Atlantic near 

31N42W to near Jamaica. This feature continues to support moderate

to fresh ENE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas across the north-central 

and northeastern basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas 

at 3 to 5 ft prevail at the northwestern basin east of the 

stationary front.



For the forecast, widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas

will occur across the basin through the weekend. A long-period E 

swell will lead to rough seas through the Atlantic Passages 

through the weekend. The stationary front should gradually

dissipate on Thu. Moderate to fresh NE winds, pulsing to strong 

at times, and rough seas will occur in the northwestern basin 

through Fri as troughing prevails in the region. Looking ahead, a 

cold front will enter the western basin on Fri night. Strong 

winds and building seas will expand in the wake of the front. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the 

large north swell in the eastern Atlantic.



A cold front extends southwestward from a 1015 mb now near Bermuda

across 31N67W to the central Bahamas, then continues as a

stationary front to beyond central Cuba. Fresh to strong NE winds

and seas of 9 to 12 ft are seen behind this front. Scattered

showers are present near and up to 200 nm northwest of this

boundary. Convergent trades are producing scattered moderate

convection from 02N to 07N between 38W and the coast of

northeastern Brazil, Suriname and French Guiana. Refer to the

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the

Atlantic Ocean.



A large 1030 mb high near 31N42W and its related broad 

surface ridge continue to dominate the central and part of the 

western Atlantic. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 6 to 8 ft 

seas in moderate mixed swells are evident north of 20N between 55W

and the cold front, and also north of 26N between 35W and 55W.

Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are

dominating waters elsewhere north of 20N and west of 35W, and also

the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser

Antilles. Gentle to moderate NE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail

for the remainder of the Atlantic basin west of 35W.



For the forecast, the cold front will progress eastward through 

Thu morning, with strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas 

expected in its wake, mainly north of 27N and west of 70W. Fresh 

SW winds will occur ahead of the front. Elsewhere, fresh to strong

trades and rough seas will prevail through the weekend south of 

23N. Low pressure is expected to form off the east coast of 

Florida on Thu, and moderate to fresh N to NW winds will occur to 

the north and west of the low through Fri morning. The low will 

strengthen and move northeastward Fri into Sat, promoting 

widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds north of 22N and west of 

70W by Fri night. An associated cold front will trail the low 

pressure and move eastward this weekend, producing fresh to 

locally strong N to NE winds and rough seas in its wake. 



$$



Chan