****0000006474**** AXNT20 KNHC 231806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Jan 23 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A low pres center is expected to develop over the W Gulf later today along a surface trough that extends from the southern Texas coastal waters along the E Mexico offshore waters to the Bay of Campeche. The strong pressure gradient in the area will support gale-force winds W of the low/trough tonight into early Fri. Seas under the strongest winds will reach 12 to 15 ft. Both winds and seas should gradually subside beginning on Friday night. For more details on these features, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml Eastern Atlantic Large Swell: Large long-period N swell is sustaining 12 ft seas in the far eastern subtropical Atlantic, east of 26W and north of 23N. Fresh N to NE winds are noted inside this area. The N swell will continue to decay today, and subside below 12 ft tonight into early Fri. For more details on the large swell, please refer to the latest MeteoFrance High Seas Forecast at the website: wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N09W to 01N19W. The ITCZ continues from 01N19W to 00N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate 03S to 02N between 10W and 29W, and from 00N to 08N between 35W and 57W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale Warning. A surface trough is analyzed from the southern Texas coastal waters along the E Mexico offshore waters to the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong northerly winds are between the coast of Mexico to the trough axis while moderate to fresh NE to E winds are E of the trough to 90W. Otherwise, a surface ridge stretches southward from a 1030 mb high over W Mississippi to the NW Caribbean. Recent scatterometer data show moderate to fresh NNE winds E of 90W associated with this ridge. Seas basin-wide are moderate in the 4-7 ft. For the forecast, increasing N winds are expected surrounding a persistent trough in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today, with winds reaching strong speeds this afternoon. Gale- force winds will develop late tonight offshore of Tampico and Veracruz and continue on Fri, diminishing from north to south Fri night. Very rough seas will accompany the winds on Fri before diminishing through Sat morning. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will prevail across the rest of the basin today, with winds increasing to fresh to strong speeds on Fri, including through the Florida Straits, as high pressure builds over the southeastern United States. Winds will turn to the SE in the western half of the Gulf this weekend and become fresh to locally strong ahead of low pressure building in the central U.S. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure and associated ridging in both the central Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh trades in the E Caribbean and fresh to strong NE to E winds in the central and great portions of the SW basin. Seas are 5-7 ft in the E waters and 8-12 ft in the central and SW Caribbean. Over the NW Caribbean, the remnants of a stationary front are analyzed as a surface trough from 20N83W to the central Gulf of Honduras where it is supporting fresh NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force winds and very rough across the south-central Caribbean will diminish slightly this afternoon before increasing again tonight. Winds will pulse to near-gale force in this area each night into early next week. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected across the northwestern Caribbean, surrounding a trough, through Fri. Elsewhere, a long-period E swell will lead to rough seas through the Atlantic Passages of the Windward Islands into early next week. Otherwise, widespread moderate to fresh trade winds and rough seas will occur across eastern, central and southwestern portions of the basin through Fri. Widespread fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected to develop by Fri night in the western Caribbean as a pressure gradient strengthens between persistent troughing in the region and building high pressure over the southeastern United States. Fresh to strong winds will expand into the Atlantic Passages this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the large north swell in the eastern subtropical Atlantic. A surface trough is along the Florida offshore waters with a low pressure just W of Freeport. Fresh to strong northerly winds are ongoing between the trough and the central and NE coast of Florida along with rough seas to 9 ft. A weakening stationary front extends from 31N61W to the central Bahamas offshore waters, supporting rough seas to 9 ft over the offshore waters of the SW N Atlantic. Surface ridging dominate elsewhere in the central and eastern subtropical waters. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will occur in the open Tropical Atlantic waters south of 23N through early next week. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong N winds will occur off the coast of Florida through Fri morning. Low pressure will develop in this area later today, before strengthening and accelerating northeastward Fri into this weekend. Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rapidly building seas will occur surrounding the low on Fri, generally north of 20N and west of 65W. An associated cold front will trail the low pressure and move eastward this weekend, producing fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas in its wake. $$ Ramos