****0000006921****
AXNT20 KNHC 232303

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Fri Jan 24 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2303 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: 

A low pressure center is expected to develop over the western 

Gulf later tonight along a surface trough that extends from the 

southern Texas coastal waters along the E Mexico offshore waters 

to the Bay of Campeche. The strong pressure gradient in the area 

will support gale force winds late tonight offshore of Tampico and

Veracruz. Gale force winds will continue through Fri before 

diminishing from north to south Fri night. Very rough seas to 16 

ft will accompany the winds on Fri before diminishing through Sat 

morning.



For more details on these features, please refer to the latest 

NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane 

Center, at the website: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



Eastern Atlantic Large Swell: 

Large long-period N swell is sustaining 12 ft seas in the far

eastern subtropical Atlantic, east of 24W and north of 22N. Fresh

N to NE winds are noted inside this area. The N swell will

continue to decay this evening, and subside below 12 ft late tonight

into early Fri.



For more details on the large swell, please refer to the latest

MeteoFrance High Seas Forecast at the website:

wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N13W and extends

southwestward to 01N22W. The ITCZ continues from 01N22W to 00N35W

to 02S47W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 02S to 

03N between 16W and 41W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section about an upcoming 

Gale Warning.



A surface trough is analyzed from the southern Texas coastal 

waters along the E Mexico offshore waters to the Bay of Campeche.

Fresh to strong NW winds are between the coast of Mexico and the 

trough axis while moderate to fresh NE to E winds are E of the 

trough to 92W. Seas 5 to 7 ft are found west of 92W. Otherwise, a 

surface ridge stretches southward from a 1033 mb high over NE 

Louisiana to the NW Caribbean supporting mainly N moderate winds 

and seas 3 to 6 ft. 



For the forecast, strong N winds are expected surrounding a 

persistent trough in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today, with 

winds increasing to gale force late tonight offshore of Tampico 

and Veracruz. Gale force winds will continue through Fri before 

diminishing from north to south Fri night. Very rough seas will 

accompany the winds on Fri before diminishing through Sat morning.

Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will prevail 

across the rest of the basin today, with winds increasing to fresh

to strong speeds on Fri, including through the Florida Straits, 

as high pressure builds over the southeastern United States. Winds

will turn to the SE in the western half of the Gulf this weekend 

and become fresh to locally strong ahead of low pressure building 

in the central U.S. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



High pressure and associated ridging in both the central Atlantic

and the Gulf of Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh trades in

the E Caribbean and fresh to strong NE to E winds in the central

and great portions of the SW basin. Seas are 5-7 ft over the

eastern waters and 8-12 ft in the central and SW Caribbean. Over 

the NW Caribbean, the remnants of a stationary front are analyzed

as a surface trough. This trough extends from 21N85W to a 1018 mb

low pressure near 17N87W. Both of these features are supporting 

fresh NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft over the NW part of the

basin. Isolated convection is also depicted near the low pressure

center. Another surface trough is producing scattered moderate 

convection off the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. 

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail, with seas 4 to 7 ft. 



For the forecast, strong trade winds and rough seas will continue

across the south-central Caribbean today and increase tonight, 

with near-gale force winds possible overnight. Winds will pulse to

near-gale force in this area each night into early next week. 

Fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected across the 

northwestern Caribbean, surrounding a trough, through Fri. 

Elsewhere, a long-period E swell will lead to rough seas through 

the Atlantic Passages of the Windward Islands into early next 

week. Otherwise, widespread moderate to fresh trade winds and 

rough seas will occur across eastern, central and southwestern 

portions of the basin through Fri. Widespread fresh to strong NE 

winds and building seas are expected to develop by Fri night in 

the western Caribbean as a pressure gradient strengthens between 

persistent troughing in the region and building high pressure over

the southeastern United States. Fresh to strong winds will expand

into the Atlantic Passages this weekend. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the 

large north swell in the eastern subtropical Atlantic.



A surface trough is along the Florida offshore waters with a 

1019 mb low pressure near 27N78W. Fresh to strong northerly winds

are ongoing between the trough and the central and NE coast of 

Florida along with rough seas to 10 ft. A weakening stationary 

front extends from 31N62W to 28N75W, supporting rough seas to 9 

ft over the offshore waters of the SW N Atlantic. Surface ridging 

dominate elsewhere in the central and eastern subtropical waters.

Fresh NE to E winds prevail across the tropical Atlantic, with

seas 9 to 11 ft. 



For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds and rough 

seas will occur in the open Tropical Atlantic waters south of 23N 

through early next week. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong N 

winds will occur off the coast of Florida through Fri morning 

surrounding low pressure centered in the western Bahamas. The low 

will strengthen and accelerate northeastward Fri into this 

weekend. Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rapidly 

building seas will occur surrounding the low on Fri, generally 

north of 20N and west of 65W. An associated cold front will trail 

the low pressure and move eastward this weekend, producing fresh 

to strong N to NE winds and rough seas in its wake. 



$$

KRV