****0000007331****
AXNT20 KNHC 240521

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Fri Jan 24 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0500 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A surface trough is analyzed over the

western Gulf and runs from 26N96W to the central Bay of Campeche.

A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong NW to N 

winds between the coast of Mexico and the trough axis while 

moderate to fresh NE to E winds are E of the trough to about 94W.

Seas are 8 to 10 ft with the strongest winds. West of the trough,

winds are forecast to increase to gale-force offshore of Tampico 

and Veracruz late tonight. The forecast calls for increasing winds

to 40 kt, and building seas to 14 ft. Gale force winds will continue

through Fri before diminishing from north to south through Fri 

night. Very rough seas will accompany the winds on Fri before 

diminishing through Sat morning.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center, at the website: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of

Liberia near 06N11W and continues SW to near 01N22W. The ITCZ 

extends from 01N22W to 01S35W to the coast of NE Brazil near 

01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from the equator

to 03N between 20W and 26W, and from 00N to 02N between 40W and 

50W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please, refer

to the Special Features section for more details.



As previously mentioned a surface trough is analyzed over the 

western Gulf. Abundant cloudiness, with patches of light rain, 

dominates most of the western Gulf. A ridge is noted over the 

remainder of the basin. Moderate to fresh N winds are observed 

over the eastern Gulf, with the exception of fresh to strong N to 

NE winds in the vicinity of the Yucatan Channel where seas are in 

the 5 to 6 ft range. Elsewhere, seas are 3 to 5 ft over the 

eastern Gulf, and 5 to 7 ft over the western Gulf. 



For the forecast, strong N winds are expected surrounding a 

persistent trough in the western Gulf, with winds increasing to 

gale force late tonight offshore of Tampico and Veracruz. Please,

see the Special Features section for more information about the

forecast. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will

prevail across the rest of the basin, with winds increasing to 

fresh to strong speeds late tonight and Fri, including through the

Florida Straits, as high pressure builds over the southeastern 

United States. Winds will turn to the SE in the western half of 

the Gulf this weekend and become fresh to locally strong ahead of 

low pressure building in the central U.S. By the end of the 

weekend into early next week, more tranquil marine conditions are 

forecast basin-wide as the pressure gradient weakens. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A cold front crosses central Cuba and extends to near 20N81W. A

shear-line is analyzed from this point to the Gulf of Honduras at

24/03Z. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are over 

the NW Caribbean in the wake of the shear-line. Low level clouds,

with possible showers, are also noted over the NW Caribbean. 

Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across 

the remainder of the basin producing isolated to scattered passing

showers. The Atlantic ridge reaches the NE Caribbean. The pressure

gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low supports fresh 

to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, including 

the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds are seen elsewhere.

Seas are 8 to 10 ft in the south central Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft 

across the remainder of the central Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft 

elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where seas are 1 to 3 ft. 



For the forecast, strong trade winds and rough seas will continue

across the south-central Caribbean tonight, with near gale force 

winds possible late tonight into early Fri. Winds will pulse to 

near gale force in this area each night into early next week. 

Fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected across the NW 

Caribbean, surrounding a trough, through Fri. Elsewhere, a long- 

period E swell will lead to rough seas through the Atlantic 

Passages of the Windward Islands into early next week. Otherwise, 

widespread moderate to fresh trade winds and rough seas will occur

across eastern, central and southwestern portions of the basin 

through Fri. Widespread fresh to strong NE winds and building seas

are expected to develop by Fri night in the western Caribbean as 

a pressure gradient strengthens between persistent troughing in 

the region and building high pressure over the southeastern United

States. Fresh to strong winds will expand into the Atlantic 

Passages this weekend. Looking ahead, winds may diminish somewhat 

outside of the central Caribbean early next week as the pressure 

gradient weakens. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A 1018 mb low pressure is centered E of Florida near 28N78W. A 

cold front extends from the low center across the NW Bahamas into

central Cuba. A warm stretches from the low to near 29N73W where

it becomes a stationary front that continues eastward to beyond

31N60W. Low level clouds, with areas of light rain, are associated

with these features. Fresh to strong northerly winds are ongoing

between the low/cold front and the central and NE coasts of Florida

along with seas to 10 ft. Satellite derived wind data indicate 

the wind shift related to the stationary front, with gentle to 

locally moderate winds on either side of it. High pressure dominates

the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Fresh to locally 

strong NE to E winds prevail across the southern periphery of the

ridge over the tropical Atlantic. Seas are seas 8 to 11 ft per 

altimeter data within these winds.



For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds and rough 

seas will occur in the open Tropical Atlantic waters south of 23N 

through early next week. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong N 

winds will occur off the coast of Florida through Fri morning 

surrounding low pressure centered near the northern Bahamas. The 

low will strengthen and accelerate northeastward Fri into this 

weekend. Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rapidly 

building seas will occur surrounding the low on Fri, generally 

north of 20N and west of 65W. An associated cold front will trail 

the low pressure and move eastward this weekend, producing fresh 

to strong N to NE winds and rough seas in its wake. Looking ahead,

fairly tranquil marine conditions may prevail early next week as 

a weak ridge settles over the region.



$$

GR